World Series Betting Guide: Rangers at Diamondbacks, Game 4
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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the MLB World Series. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing in Game 4?
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Rangers at Diamondbacks, Game 4
Diamondbacks ML (-108)
The Arizona Diamondbacks face a borderline must-win in Game 4. Down 2-1 in the series, they desperately need a win against the Texas Rangers if they want to keep their World Series hopes alive. Given the pitching matchup, I like their chances.
This will be something of a bullpen game for both squads before they wrap back around to their aces in Game 5.
For the D-backs, that means lefty Joe Mantiply is set to open. Aside from a three-run blow-up against the Phillies in the NLCS, Mantiply has been strong this postseason. He's given up three runs in 6.1 innings of work across eight different appearances. While he wasn't great during the regular season (4.62 ERA), he's held lefties to a .269 wOBA for his career. Expect him to exit shortly after facing Corey Seager and possibly Evan Carter in the top of the first.
After Mantiply, Arizona has a few different options given that no reliever threw more than 20 pitches yesterday. The last time Mantiply served as the opener, the D-backs used a combination of Kyle Nelson, Andrew Saalfrank, Ryan Thompson, and Kevin Ginkel before turning to closer Paul Sewald in the ninth.
Expect a similar plan tonight with the lefty Saalfrank saved for the red-hot Seager. How Arizona manages Seager's left-handed bat could have a huge impact on tonight's game. Seager has homered in both of Texas' wins thus far, but he hit slightly worse against lefties (.374 wOBA) compared to righties (.439 wOBA) during the regular season.
The Rangers have scored seven of their 10 runs this series off of Arizona's starters. Granted, that comes via a small sample size. But they'll have their work cut out for them tonight with Adolis Garcia's status up in the air. Texas' postseason hits (20) and home run (eight) leader, Garcia departed Game 3 with side tightness. As of Tuesday morning, there has been no update on his status.
If Garcia is at all limited, there will be a lot of pressure on Texas' pitching staff to keep things quiet. While Texas is technically rolling with an opener, starter Andrew Heaney is far from a stranger to early-inning work. The lefty started 28 games during the regular season, compiling a 4.15 ERA and posting a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Heaney sat down two batters in the Rangers' Game 2 loss but has otherwise looked shaky in relief. He gave up a run in 3.2 innings during the ADLS and was rocked for three runs on four hits in 0.2 innings in the ALCS. That's been a common trend throughout his career. Heaney owns a 5.45 ERA in 33 career relief innings, compared to his 4.45 ERA as a starter.
I'm not sure how long Heaney lasts tonight given Arizona's recent success against lefties. Their regular-season OPS in that split (.710) ranked just 21st in baseball, but they're riding a .775 OPS against lefties during the postseason. Christian Walker (.382), Gabriel Moreno (.379), Ketel Marte (.377), and Lourdes Gurriel (.352) all posted wOBAs north of .350 in against southpaws during the regular season.
Walker, in particular, could be a difference-maker, and he's involved in one of Annie Nader's favorite player props for Game 4.
Regardless of whether Heaney struggles or shoves, expect Dane Dunning to eat up a bulk of the middle innings. The righty has pitched to six batters this series, giving up a walk and a hit but no runs. He was a big part of Texas' regular season rotation as he racked up 12 wins, a 3.70 ERA, and a 19.4% strikeout rate.
However, he, too, has struggled out of the bullpen. He pitched 25.2 relief innings this season, compiling a 4.56 ERA in the split and giving up a .304 wOBA.
Texas' goal will be to get to the seventh inning. If they can get there with a lead, Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman, and Jose Leclerc stand a good chance of finishing things out -- just as they did last night.
However, I'm not convinced they get to the seventh with a lead. The lack of news around Garica plus some distrust toward Heaney and Dunning have me leaning Diamondbacks tonight. The National League's Cinderella has battled back at every turn this postseason, and I'm expecting them to do so again tonight and even the series at 2-2.
Regardless of who you're backing, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a 30% profit boost for any three-leg Same Game Parlay. If you find three Game 4 bets you like, you can take advantage of the promotion.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.