Women's NCAA Tournament: 3 Best Bets for Today's Sweet 16 Games

The Sweet 16 is where matchups tighten, rotations shorten, and star players take over. That’s exactly what we’re targeting from a betting perspective — high-usage stars, efficiency edges, and matchup mismatches.

Using tournament performance, season-long metrics and player-level data, here are the best bets for Friday's games.

Betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook's women's March Madness odds and may change after this article is published

Women's Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Best Bets for Friday

UConn vs. North Carolina -- UConn -26.5 (-112)

Best Bet: UConn Spread

This is the clearest mismatch on the board.

Step-by-step breakdown:

1. Elite talent gap
UConn has two of the best players in the entire tournament:

• Sarah Strong (18.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 60% FG)
• Azzi Fudd (17.7 PPG, elite shot creation)

North Carolina has solid guard play, but no player at that level.

2. Tournament dominance

• UConn has been blowing teams out, including a nearly 50-point win in Round 2
• UNC had to grind out a win over Maryland

That gap in control matters in neutral-site games.

3. Efficiency advantage
UConn is:

• Elite offensively
• Elite defensively
• Extremely low turnover team

UNC relies heavily on perimeter scoring — a volatile path against UConn’s defense.

Final read:

If UConn dictates tempo early, this game gets out of reach quickly.

Pick: UConn Spread

UCLA vs Minnesota -- UCLA -18.5 (-110)

Best Bet: UCLA Spread

Step-by-step breakdown:

1. Interior mismatch (decisive factor)

• Lauren Betts (16.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 56% FG)
• Minnesota has no true answer inside

Betts just dropped 35 points in Round 2, showing she can dominate tournament games.

2. Offensive efficiency gap

• UCLA: #1 offensive rating in the country
• Minnesota: good but not elite defensively

Minnesota survived a 2-point game vs Ole Miss — UCLA is a completely different level.

3. Game script

• If Betts gets touches early → Minnesota collapses defensively
• That opens perimeter shots for UCLA’s guards

Final read:

Minnesota’s path requires slowing the game drastically — unlikely vs UCLA.

Pick: UCLA Spread

LSU vs Duke -- LSU Moneyline (-430)

Best Bet: LSU Moneyline

This might be the most competitive game of the day — but LSU has the higher ceiling.

Step-by-step breakdown:

1. Offensive firepower
LSU features:

• Flau’jae Johnson
• Mikaylah Williams
• MiLaysia Fulwiley

Multiple shot creators vs Duke’s more structured offense.

2. Tournament form

• LSU: 100+ points in back-to-back games
• Duke: winning with defense, but vs weaker offenses

3. Efficiency profile
LSU ranks:

• Top 5 offense
• Top 5 defense

Duke is elite defensively but less explosive offensively.

4. Player matchup edge
Duke’s Toby Fournier (17.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG) is a strong interior presence, but LSU’s multi-guard attack creates matchup problems across the floor

Final read:

Duke can keep this close, but LSU has more ways to score late.

Which women's March Madness odds stand out to you this year? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.