Women's World Cup Betting: 4 Top-16 Teams Headline Wednesday's Slate
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The group stage of the 2023 Women's World Cup continues on Wednesday with the final games of Groups F and G.
When the dust settles, we will know who is advancing to the knockout stages and who is heading home. Both groups still have everything left to play for, with tournament fates hanging in the balance.
With that in mind, let's take a look at Wednesday's slate, which features four teams ranked inside the top 16 in FIFA's rankings.
All World Cup odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Time (Eastern) | Home | Draw | Away |
---|---|---|---|
3:00 AM | Argentina (+460) | +280 | Sweden (-175) |
3:00 AM | South Africa (+390) | +280 | Italy (-150) |
6:00 AM | Jamaica (+1200) | +550 | Brazil (-550) |
6:00 AM | Panama (+7000) | +1600 | France (-3000) |
Argentina vs. Sweden
First up on Wednesday is a Group G clash between Sweden (3rd in FIFA's rankings) and Argentina (28th).
Sweden have already booked their place in the knockout stages and are looking to lock up first place in the group, which would set up a Round-of-16 match against a struggling United States. To do so, Sweden needs only a draw. They can also win the group with a loss, as long as Italy doesn't defeat South Africa by a margin wide enough to erase the current 10-goal gap between the two sides in goal differential.
Life is good for Sweden, and at this point, they are near locks to finish on top of Group G.
Argentina enters this fixture with the worst odds to qualify from the group (+1300). They are underdogs in this match (+460) and need a win to have any chance of advancing. If they can pull off the upset, their clearest path to the Round of 16 would be a draw between South Africa and Italy, which would see Argentina secure second place on goal differential.
Argentina is fortunate to still have any chance of advancing. After losing 1-0 to Italy in their first fixture, they were -- per FBRef -- outscored on expected goals (xG) by South Africa (2.1-0.8) but somehow managed to secure a 2-2 draw to keep their tournament hopes alive. So far this tournament, they have generated just 1.1 xG while permitting 2.5 xG. To have any hope of defeating Sweden, they will need to improve drastically.
Through two games, Sweden has been dominant but not invincible. They have a combined 7 goals from 5.7 xG and have conceded just once from 1.8 xG allowed. Argentina could find the back of the net on Wednesday, but the real challenge will be keeping a clinical Swedish side off the scoresheet.
As it stands, Sweden is favored to win this fixture (-175), and they have the 10th-best odds to win the World Cup (+2300).
South Africa vs. Italy
Next up in Group G is a showdown between South Africa (54th in FIFA's Rankings) and Italy (16th).
Italy enters this fixture as the favorite (-150). They have the best odds to be the final team to advance from the group (-450) and can still technically win the group, but the odds of that happening are extremely unlikely.
Assuming Sweden defeats Argentina, Italy needs only a draw to advance. If Argentina pulls off the upset, Italy will need a win to reach the knockout stages. If Italy loses, they are guaranteed to crash out of the competition. Italy has had an average campaign thus far, with a narrow 1-0 win over Argentina and a 5-0 loss to Sweden in a match where they lost the xG battle 3.7-1.0. Italy is favored, but they are certainly on upset watch in this one.
South Africa has arguably had a more impressive World Cup than Italy to this point. They opened with a narrow 2-1 loss to Sweden before securing a 2-2 draw with Argentina in their second match.
Against Sweden, they did OK in terms of xG, amassing 1.2 and conceding 2.3 -- a much better defensive performance than Italy had. Against Argentina, they were unlucky to not come away with the win, their 2.1 xG scored was much higher than their 0.8 xG allowed. If not for a second-half collapse, punctuated by a 79th-minute goal by Romina Nunez, South Africa would be in the driver's seat for second place in the group.
Romina Núñez finds the equalizer for Argentina 🇦🇷 pic.twitter.com/7V6DCuDK7V
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) July 28, 2023
As it stands, South Africa has the second-best odds to qualify from Group G (+550). To do so, they will need to defeat Italy and hope Sweden wins or draws against Argentina. Any result other than a win won't be good enough to qualify, so expect South Africa to go for it from the opening whistle on Wednesday.
If you're looking for drama in Group G, this is the match to watch.
Jamaica vs. Brazil
The final day of action in Group F features a match between Jamaica (43rd in FIFA's rankings) and Brazil (8th).
Jamaica enters this match in second place in the group thanks to their 0-0 draw against France in their opening match. They backed that up with a narrow 1-0 win over Panama to give themselves a chance to reach the knockout stages. Despite sitting in second place, Jamaica has worse odds to qualify (+480) than Brazil (-550).
The problem for Jamaica is that even though they only need a draw against Brazil to advance, securing that draw is likely to be an incredibly difficult task. Jamaica was fortunate to come away with a draw against France as they were thoroughly outplayed (2.0-0.2 by xG). They deserved their win against Panama -- 1.0-0.5 edge in xG -- but it was an unconvincing scoreline against the lowest-ranked team in the group.
Brazil enters this match as large favorites (-550) knowing they almost certainly need a win to advance. Unless Panama (+7000) pulls off the upset of the tournament against France, no result other than a win will do for Brazil.
Brazil is slightly unlucky to be sitting one point behind Jamaica on the Group F table. They opened their campaign with a dominant 4-0 win over Panama, which was the expected result from their 4.3-0.2 xG advantage. In their marquee showdown with France, they scored one goal from 1.6 xG and conceded two from 1.2 xG allowed.
Pressure in a World Cup can cause crazy results, though, and Brazil is in the position of having to score to advance. Jamaica's position above them on the table means Jamaica can opt for a defensive game plan and try to secure a draw. Doing so would likely be a losing strategy against a Brazil side that has shown no shortage of finishing ability thus far, but the longer the game remains scoreless, the more the pressure will build.
If Brazil jumps out to an early lead, this one could get away from Jamaica quickly. If Jamaica can keep this contest close into the second half, we could see a frantic finish.
As it stands, Brazil is favored to win this match, advance to the knockout stages, and has the ninth-best odds to win the whole thing (+2100).
Panama vs. France
The other game in Group F will see Panama take on France (5th in FIFA's Rankings).
As expected, France is massively favored (-3000) to secure all three points, which would give them an excellent chance of winning Group F. Technically, France could still fail to qualify for the knockout stages, but that would require Panama (+7000) to produce an all-time upset along with some specific results occurring in the Jamaica-Brazil fixture.
France will have their focus firmly on securing the win so they can top the group, which could set up a clash with Germany, Colombia, or Morocco in the Round of 16.
To this point, France has had an interesting start to their tournament. In a match they controlled, they drew 0-0 with Jamaica before bouncing back with a 2-1 win over Brazil thanks to a goal in the 83rd minute from Wendie Renard.
Wendie Renard towers over the defense 🇫🇷
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) July 29, 2023
The captain was inexplicably unmarked at the far post and was never going to miss from there! pic.twitter.com/lbWBDXuXtW
Through two matches, France has accumulated 3.2 xG and conceded 1.8 xG. They went toe-to-toe with Brazil and will likely feel confident heading into this game and the knockout stages.
Panama has already been eliminated from the tournament, falling in the group stages in its World Cup debut. Drawn into a group with two teams ranked inside the top 10 in FIFA's rankings (France and Brazil), it was always going to be an incredibly difficult task for Panama to make it to the knockout stages.
Predictably, they struggled against Brazil in their opener, but they played a tight match against Jamaica in a narrow 1-0 loss. Against France, they will be playing for pride but are extremely large underdogs.
The question in this fixture is less about the result and more about the final winning margin for France.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.