Virginia vs NC State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ACC Tournament

The No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers (27-4, 15-3 ACC) are squaring off against the No. 7 seed NC State Wolfpack (20-12, 10-8 ACC) in the ACC tournament on Thursday at Spectrum Center, at 12 p.m. ET airing on ESPN Networks.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Virginia vs. NC State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 12, 2026
• Game time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN Networks
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Arena: Spectrum Center

Virginia vs. NC State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Virginia win (72.2%)

Before placing a wager on Thursday's Virginia-NC State spread (Virginia -5.5) or total (149.5 points), see the betting trends and insights below.

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Virginia vs. NC State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Virginia has put together a 15-16-0 record against the spread this season.
• NC State is 15-17-0 ATS this year.
• Virginia covers the spread when it is a 5.5-point favorite or more 40% of the time. That's more often than NC State covers as an underdog of 5.5 or more (never covered this season).
• The Cavaliers have done a better job covering the spread on the road (5-5-0) than they have in home games (8-9-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Wolfpack have a better winning percentage at home (.471, 8-9-0 record) than on the road (.400, 4-6-0).
• Virginia's record against the spread in conference games is 8-10-0.
• Against the spread in ACC games, NC State is 8-11-0 this year.

Virginia vs. NC State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Virginia has been the moneyline favorite in 25 games this season and has come away with the win 22 times (88%) in those contests.
• This year, the Cavaliers have won 20 of 23 games when listed as at least -210 or better on the moneyline.
• NC State has been the underdog on the moneyline five total times this season. NC State has gone 1-4 in those games.
• The Wolfpack have not won a game when entering as a moneyline underdog with odds of +172 or longer in four chances.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Virginia has a 67.7% chance of pulling out a win.

Virginia vs. NC State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Virginia's +391 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game) is a result of scoring 80.9 points per game (70th in college basketball) while giving up 68.3 per outing (45th in college basketball).
• Virginia's leading scorer, Thijs De Ridder, is 223rd in college basketball averaging 15.9 points per game.
• NC State has a +244 scoring differential, topping opponents by 7.6 points per game. It is putting up 84.0 points per game, 26th in college basketball, and is allowing 76.4 per contest to rank 244th in college basketball.
• Darrion Williams paces NC State, recording 14.0 points per game (409th in college basketball).
• The 37.1 rebounds per game the Cavaliers average rank 12th in college basketball, and are 8.1 more than the 29.0 their opponents collect per outing.
• De Ridder paces the Cavaliers with 6.3 rebounds per game (244th in college basketball play).
• The Wolfpack lose the rebound battle by 1.2 boards on average. They record 31.7 rebounds per game, 197th in college basketball, while their opponents grab 32.9.
• Ven-Allen Lubin leads the Wolfpack with 7.1 rebounds per game (144th in college basketball).
• Virginia ranks 58th in college basketball with 103.4 points scored per 100 possessions, and 32nd in college basketball defensively with 87.3 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Wolfpack rank 21st in college basketball with 106.9 points scored per 100 possessions, and 236th defensively with 97.2 points conceded per 100 possessions.

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