Valparaiso vs Indiana State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MVC Tournament

The No. 7 seed Valparaiso Beacons (17-14, 11-9 MVC) and the No. 10 seed Indiana State Sycamores (11-20, 4-16 MVC) meet in the MVC tournament Thursday at Enterprise Center, tipping off at 7 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 5, 2026
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: St. Louis, Missouri
• Arena: Enterprise Center

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Valparaiso win (60.8%)

Before placing a wager on Thursday's Valparaiso-Indiana State spread (Valparaiso -3.5) or total (138.5 points), read the betting insights and trends below.

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Valparaiso vs. Indiana State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Valparaiso has won 21 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover nine times.
• Indiana State has put together an 18-11-0 record against the spread this season.
• Valparaiso covers the spread when it is a 3.5-point favorite or more 37.5% of the time. That's less often than Indiana State covers as an underdog of 3.5 or more (66.7%).
• The Beacons have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than road games. They have covered 11 times in 16 games at home, and they've covered 10 times in 14 games on the road.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Sycamores have a lower winning percentage at home (.538, 7-6-0 record) than away (.733, 11-4-0).
• Valparaiso has 14 wins against the spread in 20 conference games this season.
• Indiana State's MVC record against the spread is 11-9-0.

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Valparaiso has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 11 games this year and has walked away with the win nine times (81.8%) in those games.
• The Beacons have a win-loss record of 6-2 when favored by -164 or better by sportsbooks this year.
• Indiana State has won 25% of the games this season it was the moneyline underdog (5-15).
• The Sycamores have a 4-13 record (winning only 23.5% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +136 or longer.
• Valparaiso has an implied victory probability of 62.1% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Last year, Valparaiso was 147th in the country on offense (74.7 points scored per game) and 238th defensively (73.9 points allowed).
• Last season, Valparaiso was 229th in college basketball in rebounds (31.1 per game) and 226th in rebounds conceded (31.9).
• Valparaiso was 292nd in the country in assists (12.0 per game) last season.
• In terms of turnovers, Valparaiso was 25th-best in college basketball in committing them (9.3 per game) last season. It was 197th in forcing them (11.1 per game).
• Indiana State was ranked 36th in college basketball offensively last season with 80.1 points per game, while defensively it was 18th-worst (79.5 points allowed per game).
• Last year Indiana State pulled down 32.3 boards per game (162nd-ranked in college basketball) and ceded 31.7 rebounds per contest (211th-ranked).
• Last year Indiana State ranked 53rd in college basketball in assists, dishing out 15.7 per game.
• Indiana State struggled in the turnover area last year, ranking 17th-worst in college basketball with 13.5 turnovers per game. It ranked 176th with 11.3 forced turnovers per contest.

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