Valparaiso vs Indiana State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MVC Tournament

The No. 7 seed Valparaiso Beacons (17-14, 11-9 MVC) face off against the No. 10 seed Indiana State Sycamores (11-20, 4-16 MVC) in the MVC tournament Thursday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Both teams will look to take one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 5, 2026
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: St. Louis, Missouri
• Arena: Enterprise Center

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Valparaiso win (60.8%)

Read the betting trends and insights below before making a wager on Thursday's Valparaiso-Indiana State spread (Valparaiso -3.5) or total (138.5 points).

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Valparaiso has compiled a 21-9-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Indiana State has put together an 18-11-0 record against the spread this season.
• Valparaiso covers the spread when it is a 3.5-point favorite or more 37.5% of the time. That's less often than Indiana State covers as an underdog of 3.5 or more (66.7%).
• At home, the Beacons own a worse record against the spread (11-5-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (10-4-0).
• This season, the Sycamores are 7-6-0 at home against the spread (.538 winning percentage). On the road, they are 11-4-0 ATS (.733).
• Valparaiso has beaten the spread 14 times in 20 conference games.
• Indiana State is 11-9-0 against the spread in MVC games this year.

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Valparaiso has been the moneyline favorite in 11 games this season and has come away with the win nine times (81.8%) in those contests.
• This year, the Beacons have won six of eight games when listed as at least -164 or better on the moneyline.
• Indiana State has compiled a 5-15 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 25% of those games).
• The Sycamores are 4-13 (winning just 23.5% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +136 or longer.
• Valparaiso has an implied victory probability of 62.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Valparaiso has a +23 scoring differential, putting up 71.9 points per game (276th in college basketball) and allowing 71.2 (105th in college basketball).
• Owen Dease's 13.2 points per game lead Valparaiso and rank 532nd in college basketball.
• Indiana State scores 73.9 points per game (235th in college basketball) and gives up 74.8 (213th in college basketball) for a -28 scoring differential overall.
• Indiana State's leading scorer, Ian Scott, ranks 481st in the nation, putting up 13.5 points per game.
• The Beacons rank 181st in college basketball at 32 rebounds per game. That's 1.2 more than the 30.8 their opponents average.
• JT Pettigrew averages 6.5 rebounds per game (ranking 217th in college basketball) to lead the Beacons.
• The Sycamores come up short in the rebound battle by an average of 1.6 boards. They are grabbing 30.9 rebounds per game (244th in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 32.5.
• Scott averages 6.5 rebounds per game (217th in college basketball) to lead the Sycamores.
• Valparaiso ranks 253rd in college basketball by averaging 94.6 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 139th in college basketball, allowing 93.6 points per 100 possessions.
• The Sycamores put up 93.8 points per 100 possessions (267th in college basketball), while giving up 94.9 points per 100 possessions (171st in college basketball).

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!