Utah State vs UNLV College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MWC Tournament

The No. 1 seed Utah State Aggies (25-6, 15-5 MWC) square off in the MWC tournament against the No. 8 seed UNLV Rebels (17-15, 11-9 MWC) on Thursday at Thomas & Mack Center, beginning at 3 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Utah State vs. UNLV Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 12, 2026
• Game time: 3 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS Sports Network
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
• Arena: Thomas & Mack Center

Utah State vs. UNLV Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Utah State win (81.9%)

If you plan to place a wager on Utah State-UNLV matchup (in which Utah State is a 6.5-point favorite and the over/under is set at 158.5 points), here are a few betting trends and insights for Thursday's game.

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Utah State vs. UNLV: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Utah State has covered 11 times in 30 games with a spread this season.
• UNLV has compiled a 15-16-0 ATS record so far this season.
• When the spread is set as 6.5 or more this season, Utah State (9-13) covers a lower percentage of those games when it is the favorite (40.9%) than UNLV (6-4) does as the underdog (60%).
• The Aggies have done a better job covering the spread in home games (5-9-0) than they have in road affairs (4-8-0).
• The Rebels' winning percentage against the spread at home is .571 (8-6-0). Away, it is .583 (7-5-0).
• Utah State has six wins against the spread in 20 conference games this year.
• UNLV is 11-10-0 against the spread in MWC games this year.

Utah State vs. UNLV: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Utah State has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 27 games this year and has walked away with the win 23 times (85.2%) in those games.
• This season, the Aggies have been victorious 21 times in 23 chances when named as a favorite of at least -265 or better on the moneyline.
• UNLV has put together an 8-9 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 47.1% of those games).
• When they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +215 or longer, the Rebels have a 5-5 record (winning 50% of their games).
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Utah State has a 72.6% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Utah State vs. UNLV Head-to-Head Comparison

• Utah State is outscoring opponents by 11.9 points per game with a +370 scoring differential overall. It puts up 83 points per game (38th in college basketball) and allows 71.1 per contest (104th in college basketball).
• Michael Collins Jr. leads Utah State, putting up 17.6 points per game (117th in college basketball).
• UNLV puts up 80 points per game (85th in college basketball) while giving up 78.5 per contest (307th in college basketball). It has a +47 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 1.5 points per game.
• UNLV's leading scorer, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, ranks 21st in the country, putting up 20.8 points per game.
• The Aggies are 257th in the nation at 30.6 rebounds per game. That's 1.8 more than the 28.8 their opponents average.
• Mason Falslev is 364th in college basketball play with 5.7 rebounds per game to lead the Aggies.
• The Rebels rank 150th in the nation at 32.4 rebounds per game. That's 1.4 more than the 31 their opponents average.
• Howard Fleming Jr.'s 6.3 rebounds per game lead the Rebels and rank 244th in college basketball.
• Utah State averages 107.2 points per 100 possessions on offense (20th in college basketball), and allows 91.8 points per 100 possessions (88th in college basketball).
• The Rebels rank 124th in college basketball with 99.8 points scored per 100 possessions, and 257th defensively with 98 points conceded per 100 possessions.

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