US Open Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/6/23

The US Open is into the second week, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the coming days.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which quarterfinals matches could have the most betting value on Wednesday.

Marketa Vondrousova vs. Madison Keys

Madison Keys ML (-132)

At first glance, it might seem strange to see the lower-seeded Madison Keys favored over the World No. 9 and 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, and I would normally jump on the Vondrousova side as the better value.

However, these two could be trending in opposite directions following their Monday matches.

For Keys, she absolutely dominated her fourth-round match against World No. 3 Jessica Pegula, a player who entered the tournament with the fifth-shortest odds to win it all.

In just over an hour, Keys cruised to a 6-1, 6-3 victory while winning 77% of her first-serve points. While Pegula was able to break Keys once, that was her lone break point chance of the entire match, showing that Keys was never in any serious danger.

Keys has jumped Vondrousova for the fourth-shortest odds to win the tournament, and she'll no doubt have the home crowd behind her.

Meanwhile, despite being around a -650 favorite in her fourth-round match, Vondrousova had to claw back from a set down to overcome unseeded American Peyton Stearns.

The biggest concern for her is that she suffered a mid-match shoulder injury. While she was able to work through the issue, it was serious enough for her to withdraw from doubles -- which is telling because it's her partner Barbora Strycova's last tournament.

According to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Vondrousova projects to win this 57.7% of the time, which would effectively flip this betting line. There's definitely some risk in buying high on Keys, and her opponent was playing quite well before her last match.

But Keys can beat anyone when she's at her best, and she could be peaking at just the right time while her opponent is at less than 100%.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev

Over 36.5 Total Match Games (-116)

While I would love to back Alexander Zverev as a +365 underdog, I have a hard time seeing him pull off the upset against Carlos Alcaraz, particularly after slugging it out for four hours and 41 minutes against Jannik Sinner into the wee hours of Tuesday morning.

On the Alcaraz side, +140 for him to win in straight sets is an interesting way to dig up some value from the -465 favorite, and his surface-adjusted Elo rating is over 200 points higher, backing the notion that he should be a heavy favorite.

And yet Zverev actually holds a 3-2 head-to-head record against him. Although two of Zverev's wins came in 2021 before Alcaraz was fully established as one of tennis' elite players, the German's other victory came at last year's French Open quarterfinals.

Therefore the smarter route might be to expect that this one is a closer match than the odds would suggest, and a four-setter ought to comfortably exceed 36.5 total match games barring some lopsided sets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.