UFC Vegas 98 Best Bets: Royval vs. Taira

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira Betting Picks

Niko Price vs. Themba Gorimbo

Price to Win (+310)

With all due to respect to Themba Gorimbo, this line is insanity.

Gorimbo's 3-1 UFC start has come through fighters a combined 5-10 against all others. In an outstanding stat, three of his four opponents were cut from UFC after their fight with "The Answer." On a completely different career arc than getting cut, Niko Price turned back the clock in June.

"The Hybrid" landed 108 significant strikes and 5 takedowns against Alex Morono (13-7 UFC), a veteran still in the tail end of his prime at 34. Price is 35 and suffered a few setbacks against established winners with the promotion in recent years, but Gorimbo doesn't quite fit that description yet.

Gorimbo's +1.45 striking success rate (SSR) and takedown volume (4.04 landed per 15 minutes) aren't nearly as impressive when adjusting for competition. I've still got Themba 57.5% projected to win Saturday's fight as the younger athlete with power and grappling upside, but the betting value is squarely on Price given that forecast.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden

Gooden by Round 3 Finish or Decision (+430)

"Chidi Bang Bang" is a top-five nickname in the sport, but Chidi Njokuani hasn't had the best last 25 months with the promotion to stay eligible for those rankings.

Njokuani's three-fight losing skid was snapped via a tight split decision in March over Rhys McKee (0-4 UFC). The 35-year-old's cardio endurance seems to have waned, allowing McKee (-3.05 SSR) to hang around late in a winnable fight. I've never been the largest fan of Jared Gooden (-1.60 SSR), but this price he can eek out a win late is too high if he hangs around.

"Nitetrain" is coming off his first career submission, and the hallmark of his 2-4 record has been durability. Amidst some serious beatdowns, Gooden has yet to have even been dropped in UFC. Njokuani has lost twice by KO/TKO and dropped once in those bouts.

The one-dimensional favorite has also never attempted a takedown, leaving potential grappling upside in Gooden's column, too. In the most surprising model verdict of the week, I've got Gooden as 48.2% likely to win this bout, but his low knockdown rate (0.29%) and low volume of submission attempts (0.2 per 15 minutes) likely means it'll have to be on the cards or due to Njokuani's gas tank expiring late.

Brad Tavares vs. Junyong Park

Park to Win (-188)
Park by Submission (+900)

There's value on this line because Brad Tavares hasn't been submitted in 24 UFC bouts. The problem is that the Tavares that compiled those results is no longer present.

Tavares has lost three of his last four bouts with a -40 combined striking differential in them. That, unfortunately, checks out with being 36 years old. With a declining +0.23 SSR to Junyong Park's +1.23, I believe he'll be at the mercy of "The Iron Turtle" wherever this fight goes.

Park has made a supreme tendency to go to the ground in recent fights, though. He's won three of his last four fights by submission, adding to a lofty rate of attempts (1.1 per 15 minutes). That's just too obvious a tendency to be undervalued because a former superior version of Tavares has done a nice job limiting takedowns (81% defense) and submissions.

I've got Park modeled as 71.1% likely to win this fight, so you can take his moneyline up to -245. If you don't want to lay that juice in an iffy matchup for grappling success, I'm good sticking to the submission prop, which I've got at 31.1% likely (+222 implied).

Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira

Under 3.5 Rounds (+102)
Taira by KO/TKO/Submission (-105)

Violence should await Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira in this weekend's main event.

Six of Royval's nine UFC fights (66.7%) have finished in the first two rounds -- a rate that Taira can match with four stoppages inside two across his six UFC bouts. A majority of the time these two collide with anyone, it has usually been a quick night. That might be undersold here by consecutive Royval decisions.

The Japanese phenom Taira is a -290 favorite with a clear-as-day path to dominate this fight through Royval's 40% takedown defense. He averages 2.35 takedowns and 2.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes and didn't even need a takedown with a gruesome corkscrewing of Alex Perez's leg to end his last appearance in June. His unique ground game has so many wrinkles.

With that said, this could also be a volatile fight on the feet. Both fighters sport a striking defense below 50%, and Royval has been dropped twice in his career. Additionally, Taira's previous level of competition may not have tested his chin the way the 0.98% knockdown rate of "Raw Dawg" -- at flyweight -- can.

I've got this fight 70.7% likely to not start Round 4, and I've got Taira as 51.8% likely to find an early finish. Taira to Win In Round 1, 2, or 3 (+170) pairs those two notions together, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.