UFC Vegas 90: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC Vegas 90: Allen vs. Curtis 2, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Melissa Mullins vs. Nora Cornolle

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Melissa Mullins is making up for lost time.

Despite just a 6-0 pro record at 32 year old, at least two of the wins have come against UFC winners. She drowned Irina Alekseeva (1-1 UFC) in her debut with the promotion, and Darya Zheleznyakova (1-0 UFC) put forth a successful debut two weeks ago.

Mullins' ground attack is pretty lethal by this division's standards, using ground-and-pound attacks to finish Zheleznyakova in the first round and amassing 8:15 in control time in her debut, which was actually quite funny to see how quickly she used Alekseeva's own takedowns against her. She's yet to secure a pro submission, though.

Nora Cornolle has her work cut out for her in this particular matchup. Cornolle failed to defend five of Joselyne Edwards' eight takedown attempts in her debut, ceding 8:42 in control time. Edwards entered that fight with just two takedowns in six prior appearances, so Mullins is arguably already a better known quantity in that department.

Cornolle's +1.47 striking success rate (SSR) provides a potential path on the feet, but she attempted just 5.21 significant strikes per minute in her debut. I'm not sure she has the power or volume to make them count.

Women's divisions can be a bit of a puzzle at this entry level. I just believe this moneyline has ballooned to -325 behind the same conclusion I reached. Mullins should be able to get this fight to the mat early and often -- likely making quick work of the Frenchwoman once there.

Betting Verdict

• Mullins' profile is a bit strange due to not even attempting her own takedowns in her debut, but she showed elite skills to quickly reverse them. I forecast she has a simple time returning Cornolle to the mat, and this moneyline could even look like supreme value.
  • I like Mullins' inside-the-distance prop (+270) and submission prop (+700) when expecting a ground-heavy style. She is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, after all.

DFS Verdict

• There are a few heavy favorites on Saturday's card, but as you'll find, not a ton of them carry extreme early-finish upside. I believe Mullins ($21) does, vaulting her into the MVP mix by default.

Dylan Budka vs. Cesar Almeida

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

These fights between two Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) alums can wildly deviate from a one-fight sample, but this tilt seems pretty straight forward.

36-year-old Cesar Almeida already has 56 pro kickboxing fights in the tank, but he's followed the path of Alex Pereira, an old kickboxing rival, to the octagon. Almeida cruised with a +43 striking differential in his DWCS appearance, but ceding 5:44 in control time, he's going to face the same concerns as Pereira about being able to grapple in an MMA setting, and time isn't on his side to learn those new tricks.

On the flip side, Dylan Budka debuts as one of Dana's most controversial signings of the 2023 season. It's not that Budka shouldn't have won his fight with Chad Hanekom, but it was a sloppy, ugly fight where the two exchanged cage control and only 2 of 15 total takedown attempts were landed -- both by Budka. He's passed on that sort of fighter before, but this 185-pound division does need talent.

In some ways, these two should stick to their patented styles and challenge each other. Budka has three pro wins via submission, and Almeida's not well tested there. On the flip side, Budka clearly wasn't comfortable at distance and now faces an excellent striker.

However, with zero career losses via knockout and a 12-year age gap in his favor, it's hard to not think the American grinds out a result in his favor.

Betting Verdict

• I'm not getting to the window to back Budka's moneyline (-150), but his submission prop (+460) is palatable given a huge edge in the ground department. An attempt on DWCS is a bonafide tendency to work with at such a distant number.

DFS Verdict

• We can turn to Budka ($16) in flex spots, believing him to be the better of these two fighters overall. Almeida's last knockout win came in December 2021 over an opponent with a 6-33-1 pro record; I just don't think he's got plus power at this level anymore.

Jean Matsumoto vs. Dan Argueta

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

As someone who was foiled by Jean Matsumoto during his DWCS bid, I wanted to put my bias aside for his debut. Ending up opposite him again, I'm not sure I did.

Matsumoto just didn't perform overly well on the show despite getting a nod due to activity. His 36% striking accuracy and 49% striking defense were both worse than his opponent Kasey Tanner's, but he used 79 more attempts to masquerade the efficiency to the judges, who can't always see which punches actually land and don't. The Brazilian also defended four of Tanner's six takedown efforts.

I think this is a great first test for him after that effort. Dan Argueta, in a limited UFC sample, has proven the commitment and efficiency in his grappling that Tanner didn't quite show. He's posted 2.54 takedowns and 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes, landing exactly 50% of his efforts so far. Argueta's striking will never be his strong suit, but a 52% takedown D has allowed him to see the scorecards in all three of his completed bouts.

The 24-year-old Matsumoto has gone the distance in six of his last eight fights, so I'm not sure what finishing danger he brings to Argueta, and he won a razor-thin margin over potentially a worse version. Argueta's last loss to Miles Johns (6-2 UFC) tainted his appeal to some, but Johns is a division staple.

In a pick 'em, I'd have to consider Matsumoto's clearer path to striking offense, but this wide line did the work for me.

Betting Verdict

• This fight is -220 to go the distance, following trends of both guys. I just believe in Argueta's motor and positional control when Matsumoto exits the Contender Series with very few positives to grasp. I bet Argueta's moneyline (+134) earlier this week.

DFS Verdict

• "The Determined" is an easy choice as a $12 value play in a fight projected go to all 15 minutes.

Victor Hugo vs. Pedro Falcao

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

The last time a fighter stepped in on three days' notice in UFC resulted in a highlight for the ages. Victor Hugo would love to replicate that result.

Hugo was initially scheduled to face Alatengheili (4-2-1 UFC) in his debut, but he'll now draw Brazilian grappler and DWCS alum Pedro Falcao in an advantageous situation. Though the competition is hit and miss, "Striker" Hugo has one loss since the start of 2014 in 16 fights, and it was due to injury.

The well-rounded 135er took a grappling approach during his DWCS appearance, landing 2.06 takedowns and 4.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes to make quick work of Eduardo Torres Caut. However, given the nickname, his opponent's style, and eight pro wins via knockout, you'd also presume he's the stronger kickboxer here.

Meanwhile, Falcao finally returns on the other side. UFC brass wasn't too impressed with a third-round, ground-based win over 39-year-old James Barnes in 2021, so they let him go. In 2024, a finish on DWCS nearly guarantees a contract, so it's a bit odd it has taken this long to bring him back.

"Pedrinho" is partly to blame, though. His only fight after that appearance was a November 2023 win via submission, and that inactivity definitely leads to some ambiguity about improvement.

Falcao's demolition of a senior citizen by this division's standard left him with pretty gaudy peripherals entering this debut, but Hugo has them, too. Plus, his are relevant in this era of UFC with a longer track record of regional success, and his grappling acumen (and Falcao's lack of KO power) makes it hard to see the underdog winning via early finish.

Betting Verdict

• I'm not laying a -144 moneyline with Hugo in this spot, but his +185 inside-the-distance prop seems a bit wide when there's an obvious discrepancy in conditioning for this bout. A sub-one-unit play there is a much better path.
  • If this fight is longer, there's a good chance Falcao's wrestling success means he's winning it.
  • Hugo also has a 71.4% early-finish rate in his career in a huge 28-fight sample.

DFS Verdict

• Hugo ($YY) has a track record as a finisher in a situation that should dramatically favor him. His upside might be the highest in the mid-range anywhere.

Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Friday was Norma Dumont's first time successfully making 135 pounds. UFC has eliminated the 145-pound division for women, so this was a must to her longevity. Now, they're testing her ability to challenge for the title.

Dumont has a 5-1 UFC career at featherweight, but the lack of credible competition has always been the concern. Even when ranked 135ers like Karol Rosa and Chelsea Chandler have forayed up to her weight class, they've been at a disadvantage. "The Immortal" has a tremendous +1.42 SSR earned through accuracy (49%) and defense (66%), and she's landed 64% of her takedown attempts. Losing to Macy Chiasson (6-3 UFC) -- an afterthought at bantamweight in the title conversation -- just makes you wonder how much it matters.

A former title challenger in this division, Germaine de Randamie might be able to help. GDR is now 39 years old, but Holly Holm still going strong at 42 must have inspired her to return to the UFC for the first time since October 2020.

When in her prime, de Randamie arguably gave Amanda Nunes her toughest fight before Nunes lost her belt in 2021. She won the distance striking differential (+5) but just couldn't stop Nunes' takedowns. Amanda landed eight but didn't finish GDR in their second fight (and first for a title).

Dumont never got a crack at "The Lioness", but I found this fight interesting to model. de Randamie will actually be the larger fighter with two inches of height and four of reach. She also had similar accuracy (46%) and defense (65%) metrics while fighting the top 135ers in the world.

Until Dumont actually beats a top-10-caliber fighter, should she be this large of a favorite over one?

Betting Verdict

• When we last saw de Randamie, she put together a 4-1 stretch in the top 10. Evaluating her current form at an advanced age is challenging, but my model -- factoring that in -- has her as 42.2% likely to win this fight compared to these 47.6% implied odds.
• Norma has gone to a decision in seven straight, and GDR was finished once -- by Nunes -- in nine career UFC fights. This one is -280 to go the distance, and my model believes it happens 80.1% of the time.
  • The only betting value I'm showing is de Randamie's points prop (+270), which the model has at +180.

DFS Verdict

• Dumont has only exceeded 80 FanDuel points in one of her eight career fights. She's been a historic letdown in this spot, and de Randamie ($13) is one of her toughest opponents yet. I think this decision is even clearer than betting markets.

Alex Morono vs. Court McGee

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Welterweight veterans collide in the featured prelim, and Alex Morono's gym is already a concerning red flag.

Fortis MMA has been the subject of a few upsets in recent weeks, and Morono has already dropped two of three fights entering this one, so it's not impossible to see him taking another loss. The "good" of Morono is a excellent pace, attempting 12.24 significant strikes per minute despite landing a mediocre clip of them (41%). He's also got a black belt in jiu-jitsu that was on display in his last win -- a submission of Tim Means.

However, Morono often struggles to separate. His 0.45% knockdown rate isn't large, and he doesn't wrestle. It's operating in the margins of point fighting, which would be a welcome environment for 39-year-old Court McGee.

At such an advanced age, McGee's chin might be dust following consecutive first-round defeats by KO, but his 60% striking D is otherwise really solid. Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells, the reasons for the defeats, also have a combined 15 KOs between them. Morono's power is quite a bit behind both.

McGee's wrestling could be a huge factor in this fight when Morono defends takedowns at a poor 50% rate and holds a 2-3 record when ceding multiple takedowns. McGee attempts 7.56 per 15 minutes, but he's landed an ugly 27% of them.

We've seen a surge of older fighters lately, but I just don't trust McGee's chin holds for all 15 minutes without consequential moments, and evolving MMA scoring criteria makes grinding out a wrestling-based decision a hard proposition in 2024. I'll pick the favorite even if his moneyline is a bit wide.

Betting Verdict

• Morono's decision prop (+200) seems like the place to be here. I've got it at +145 (40.5% implied), and the model expects this fight to go the distance 72.2% of the time. I think we're getting great value because of McGee's recent quick losses to power punchers.

DFS Verdict

• While that projected outcome doesn't necessarily make Morono an MVP candidate at $20, I do think he's a fine flex play with non-zero submission upside.
  • A salary error placed McGee ($19) among the heavy favorites here, so the other side doesn't even really have an argument.

Charlie Campbell vs. Trevor Peek

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

As I'm prepping these bouts, I appreciate easy ones. This was an easy one.

Trevor Peek is, by skill level, the worst UFC lightweight I've ever seen propped up by the promotion. Peek has torched Erick Gonzalez (0-3 UFC) and Mohammad Yahya (0-1 UFC), a pair of fighters that haven't even competed with another 155-pounder on the roster. Peek was destroyed by Chepe Mariscal, a natural featherweight, in the middle of that can sandwich after amassing just a 40% striking accuracy and defense in the fight.

However, the Tennessean's bar-fight style and iron chin are ingredients for action and fireworks -- two things UFC finds more important than skill. The problem is Charlie Campbell has showed plenty of skill to beat him here.

Campbell's two-fight sample of UFC-affiliated starts has been an excellent one outside of one punch. He's posted a +5.61 SSR, and there is zero -- I mean zero -- doubt that Campbell will be the better grappler despite never securing a pro submission. He's actually been winning grappling matches with Fury FC compared to Peek's muscle-out-of-it approach.

"The Cannibal" was just floored by Chris Duncan (2-1 UFC) in his DWCS bid in a wild, come-from-behind sequence. It delayed his entry to UFC, but a 54% striking accuracy and 60% defense show the skills to stay.

Peek's lone path to win this fight is replicating that result. Sure, Peek's 0.92% knockdown rate is good, but if that's all I'm getting at the cost of efficiency, skill, and grappling upside, the -184 favorite actually seems like tremendous value.

Betting Verdict

• This all sets up for a laugh-at-Austin knockout, but Campbell is the significantly more skilled party with KO power of his own. I actually love Campbell's submission prop (+550) in this fight given Campbell's grappling-heavy gym at Serra-Longo MMA.
  • Matt Frevola, Nazim Sadykhov, and Aljamain Sterling train in this weight range at the gym. Peek is a rear-naked choke waiting to happen.
• Peek's consecutive decisions against poor competition add a bit of ambiguity to this total, but I'm in line with oddsmakers' -480 odds for before-the-bell violence.

DFS Verdict

• Campbell ($18) is my favorite MVP candidate on the card despite obvious risks. Peek's 44% striking D has been amassed against the worst of the worst; it's a trainwreck far beyond what that number alone implies.

Valter Walker vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

This spot seems laid out for the brother of Johnny Walker, Valter Walker, but his skills will still have to be UFC-caliber to blow by Lukasz Brzeski as expected.

"The Clean Monster" is undefeated entering his debut, but I have no governor of his overall skill. Regional footage against light heavyweight flameout Alex Nicholson (1-3 UFC) -- where Walker had an extreme size edge -- showed someone eating a ton of damage but securing a handful of takedowns to ultimately break an exhausted Nicholson into throwing the towel. Nicholson is a bad judge of talent himself, but he's still the best opponent he's faced by a country mile.

On the flip side, Brzeski might be here to take my money again. I've been bullish on the Polish heavyweight since his +52 striking differential against Martin Buday (4-1 UFC), but he was in poor shape to face both Karl Williams (4-0 UFC) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta (4-1 UFC). With both of those names hurtling toward the rankings, I'm still optimistic for "The Bull" to stick around in UFC.

After all, he appears to have improved his conditioning back to its original state, and Brzeski still rocks a +1.62 SSR and has won or tied the distance striking differential in all three fights.

Walker's takedown ability into Brzeski's 42% takedown D is a concern, but honestly, it appeared to make Walker extremely tired against Nicholson, and he doesn't have a pro win by submission to make early ones count.

If Brzeski shows up in shape, I believe he's the significantly better distance striker that can outlast the Brazilian for a (T)KO or decision win.

Betting Verdict

• You don't want to make a living straight picking +210 underdogs, but this line to me appears to be "Not Lukasz Brzeski" as the -265 favorite, and that reputation is unfair given his opponents' combined 12-2 UFC record. Walker's actual ability is unknown (at best), and I have no doubts who I trust more at a UFC level.
• This fight is -225 to not go the distance, and Walker's poor conditioning regionally is likely why. He'll sprint to finish Brzeski, and if he comes up empty, the Polish fighter will be in the driver's seat.
  • Without much power, I find Brzeski's third-round-or-decision prop (+430) interesting if the finish or result comes via exhaustion. This is a market exclusive to FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• I love Brzeski ($9) as a punt with finishing upside. His UFC data is really solid, and Walker is such an unappealing fighter to back as the largest favorite on the entire card.

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Prospects start at the lowest level of competition, which means some end up being wildly overvalued. This weekend will show whether or not Ignacio Bahamondes was one of them.

Bahamondes' three UFC wins have come against competition with an overall 8-9 record, and setbacks to Ludovit Klein (5-2-1 UFC) and John Makdessi (11-9 UFC) weren't exactly total passes. "La Jaula" is just 26 years old, and his +2.61 SSR with excellent striking accuracy (46%) and defense (57%) is a great start.

I'm just not sure how to evaluate his last fight with Klein when he landed a mere 30% of his significant strikes and ceded three of Klein's five takedown attempts. He was uncompetitive. It could have been a bad night at the office, but Christos Giagos has an even more credentialed lightweight career than "Mr. Highlight".

The story of Giagos' UFC career is taking fights in which he's been well outmatched. "The Spartan" has seven UFC losses to opponents with a combined 68-28 record, including stud prospect Daniel Zellhuber in his last bout. Largely, he's handled everyone else. Unfortunately, Bahamondes' 4-2 UFC record fits decently in that group of victors.

Wrestling should be a huge theme for Giagos in this bout since his +0.03 SSR is also ceding four inches of reach. However, he attempts 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a decent clip of them (37%), so it's possible he can take the same path to victory that Klein did.

When Bahamondes has so little power (0.36% knockdown rate), this line seems a bit wide. However, similar to Morono earlier, the Chilean also has amassed a +55 striking differential in all four wins, so a convincing decision wouldn't be his first.

Betting Verdict

• Bahamondes has a huge striking edge here, but Giagos carries all of the grappling upside. Balancing them together, I've got the favorite at 63.3% to win, but his odds imply a 77.3% chance. He's a fine win pick, but this moneyline is a bit wide.
• Giagos hasn't seen the cards since the start of 2021. Juxtaposed with Bahamondes finding the cards in three of his last five, I've got this fight 55.9% likely to see its full distance.
  • Bahamondes has a UFC win via submission, so I think the two fighters are evenly matched there with minimal power at distance. I don't see a clear path to victory.

DFS Verdict

• I'd like Bahamondes ($23) to have more finishing upside as an MVP candidate, but a floor of 79.4 FanDuel points in his four wins is tough to ignore. His striking volume is extremely high for DFS purposes.

Morgan Charriere vs. Jose "Chepe" Mariscal

Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

I mentioned Chepe Mariscal in the Campbell-Peek bout earlier, and the ambiguity around that result also makes this one pretty tough to profile.

Mariscal's two-fight UFC sample is the battering of the unskilled Peek plus a close fight with Jack Jenkins (2-1 UFC) that ended when Jenkins' arm broke in the second round as a fluke occurance. "Machine Gun" has a +0.72 SSR through these appearances, but his 52% striking D is concerningly low.

However, the matchup with Morgan Charriere is one that could make either guy look like a -500 favorite in hindsight. Mariscal has posted 3.22 takedowns and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes when Charriere hasn't faced a UFC takedown attempt. Frankly, he's really only been in striking matches with Cage Warriors regionally since March 2019, so it's possible his grappling is downright awful. I haven't seen him defend an attempt in three fights of footage.

Yet, "The Last Pirate" showcased in his debut that he's -- without a doubt -- an elite striker. He landed 53% of his significant strikes and defended 78% (!) from fellow debutant Manolo Zecchini. Zecchini isn't confirmed as a bonafide member of the roster, but starts -- amounting in a +4.41 SSR -- don't get much better than that.

With both men projected to have substantial advantages in one area and weaknesses in the other, I think the best play here is violence.

Betting Verdict

• This moneyline closed closer to a pick 'em throughout the week, and I think that's appropriate. I can't tell who will embarrass who in which domain.
• Under 2.5 rounds (+162) is a substantially better play than a side. Mariscal has three pro losses via (T)KO and poor striking D while Charriere might not be able to grapple at all.
  • The associated props that make sense with my lean are Charriere's knockout prop (+310) and Mariscal's submission prop (+1400).

DFS Verdict

• I'm extremely stressed about this fight here. The matching $15 salaries are harrowing to choose from when expecting an early finish. In cash games, I might avoid this fight altogether. In tournaments, I'll alternate which fighter I roster in a given lineup.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Can "The Great Ape" get things turned around? This feels like a spot where it has to happen.

Alexander Hernandez is 0-2 at featherweight, but he's favored to win against Damon Jackson this weekend. After all, he did just turn back Jim Miller (26-16 UFC) a little over a year ago at 155 pounds. Nonetheless, Hernandez's identity is a bit hard to pinpoint between a -0.27 SSR showing minimal efficiency, a 0.57% knockdown rate showing minimal power, and 0.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes showing minimal grappling danger. He often wins fights on experience and athleticism.

Jackson's profile is much different. Averaging 2.44 takedowns and 1.6 submission attempts per 15, "The Leech" has a clear identity as a grappler that's allowed him to avoid some of the pitfalls of fellow struggling Fortis MMA teammates. Yet, the 35-year-old's 50% striking defense has resulted in two knockout losses to ranked fighters, Ilia Topuria and Dan Ige.

My initial gut instinct in this fight was Hernandez's athleticism could also easily swarm Jackson, and I believe that's why he's favored here. Jackson has a bit of a reputation as fragile. However, if you look at how these two fought Billy Quarantillo (6-4 UFC), Hernandez was knocked out in the second round with a -39 striking differential, yet Jackson went all three rounds with a -33 differential.

My model favors Hernandez on level of competition and better striking volume, but this line might be a bit wide. His 60% takedown D could be an issue against Jackson's patented style.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Hernandez as 57.4% likely to win this bout, but that places the betting volume squarely on Jackson's moneyline (+160).
• I've got this fight as 59.5% likely to go the full distance, and oddsmakers (-240) are far more convinced of an early finish. Jackson's decision prop (+500) is showing pretty solid value to me, and it checks out with Hernandez losing just once in his pro career via submission.

DFS Verdict

• Length or an upset would lead to Jackson ($10) as the optimal play in this realm. I'm willing to trust my model's assessment that at least one of those aspects is likely.

Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis

Middleweight (185 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Rematches are often a last resort for UFC, but this is a pivotal one to mark the improvement of Brendan Allen as a potential title contender.

Allen is on a six-fight winning streak since Chris Curtis defeated him by second-round TKO. In fact, Curtis and his Xtreme Couture teammate Sean Strickland represent the only pair of losses in Allen's 14-fight UFC tenure.

"All In" is a submission wizard, attempting 1.7 per 15 minutes and winning his last four via sub. However, don't discount an improving striking offense with solid accuracy (54%).

On paper, a 36-year-old Curtis profiles as a horrible matchup for him, and it played out that way in their first bout. Curtis' 92% takedown D can keep him safe from Allen's ground danger, and his own accurate striking (51%) allowed him to land in bunches on Allen's 46% striking defense.

That fight was classic "Action Man". Weathering an early storm, Curtis got his reads and found openings. However, he's got a -0.62 SSR despite decent efficiency because he's often been too willing to do just that.

Age is a very crucial concept in MMA fights. In the first bout, Curtis (33) was actually far closer to a middleweight's statistical prime than Allen (25). The Louisiana native's projected improvement, as well as a potential decline for the aging underdog, explains this betting line a bit further.

Curtis' fight was Nassourdine Imavov was a huge reason why I'm backing Allen in this spot. He allowed three of four takedown attempts in that fight, and Allen's takedown accuracy (47%) has soared past Imavov's (31%) as both navigate ranked competition.

I was stunned at my model's result here, but it makes plenty of sense.

Betting Verdict

• Due to age, recent performance, level of competition, and grappling upside, my model actually has Allen pegged as a -225 favorite. That's as convincing of a result as you'll find, but Curtis has a ton of analytical flaws, and the model would chalk some of the come-from-behind results up as fortunate.
  • The prop showing the most value is Allen's inside-the-distance prop (+120). I have it at -115.
• In line with oddsmakers' -215 odds for this fight to end early, my model forecasts it to happen 63.3% of the time. Allen has very little of the decision equity due to low volume.

DFS Verdict

• There's enough uncertainty to potentially exclude Allen ($22) from the MVP mix, but a worthy favorite projected to win inside the distance in a five-round fight, which makes for a pretty compelling candidate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.