UFC Vegas 78: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Vegas 78: Luque vs. Dos Anjos, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Luana Santos vs. Juliana Miller

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

The UFC has a preferred winner here, but no one knows if she can deliver.

Juliana Miller won The Ultimate Fighter 30 in this weight class, and as UFC continues to push the reality show, its champion flaming out of UFC a year later would be quite a disappointment.

Miller had nothing for her first veteran foe, Veronica Hardy, earlier this year. She was taken down on all four attempts from Hardy, and Hardy landed 80% of her significant strikes in total domination.

Hardy, however, is a multi-time UFC winner that has faced one in every bout before the Miller affair. That was a much tougher opponent for Miller than Luana Santos.

Santos is a debutant from Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA), which is UFC's de facto minor league. She's not really shown much to this point with a pair of wins there; each of her opponents had fewer than eight pro fights and five pro wins below a UFC level.

Moreover, Santos appears to be a grappling ace, which is also Miller's forte. This one has the makings of an ugly brawl in the clinch where the stronger fighter will win.

In addition to Miller's edge in pro experience, she has excellent size and power for this division. She still averages 2.07 takedowns per 15 with solid 57% accuracy through a dismal second effort.

Hardy was too skilled for Miller, but don't think for a second that UFC didn't scour the planet to give her the best shot to win this and rebound.

Betting Verdict

• Spending hard-earned currency on this fight would certainly be a choice, but Miller at plus chicken would be the side I'd back.
• Neither of these fighters has been finished professionally yet, but I'm still waiting to see if I can get better than +300 on Miller's submission prop. She's tried 2.1 attempts per 15 minutes.

DFS Verdict

• This fight is -215 to go over 2.5 rounds. This is a total 'dog-or-pass situation with Miller ($15) for salary savings. Beatings won't get worse than her last fight, and she survived that one.

Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Jose Johnson

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

This is the right move for Jose Johnson even if this fight will be tough to win.

Johnson might be better suited for a kickboxing or Muay Thai career; his 61% striking accuracy and 55% striking defense through Dana White's Contender Series are both pretty impressive. By taking this fight, he's opened the door to a second bout with another one-dimensional striker that could see him into the winner's circle at some point.

He's just a terrible grappler, and Da'Mon Blackshear absolutely is not.

After competitive losses to Youssef Zalal and Farid Basharat (five combined UFC wins), Blackshear took it to grappling ace Luan Lacerda, taking him down and pounding him out in the second round. Of Blackshear's 13 pro wins, 8 have come via submission. He's an excellent ground technician.

Johnson has been submitted three times regionally and was finished by both fighters on his resumé with a UFC appearance. On DWCS, he ceded 18 takedowns with a woeful 30% takedown D.

Blackshear is a solid grappler that has shown excellent durability against previous tougher (and in some cases, heavier) opponents. He's a solid favorite on short notice given the matchup, and Johnson's eyes are likely on his next appearance.

Betting Verdict

• Blackshear by submission will be my target when the line drops on Saturday. It's all too obvious with Johnson's lanky frame and historical tendencies. Every second "Da'Monster" stays at range is an opportunity for his opponent; he should work to a grappling position quickly.
• Johnson survived both of his DWCS bouts, and two of Blackshear's first three fights have gone to a decision, so lazy handicapping might have left some value on under 2.5 rounds (-142) here.

DFS Verdict

• Above all, Blackshear's volume was excellent in his last bout. He turned in 120.6 FanDuel points. In any decent matchup, he's viable with that pace. In this one, he's a priority at $19.

Jaqueline Amorim vs. Montserrat Conejo

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

This fight has a clear motto for me. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

I fell for Jaqueline Amorim as a huge favorite in her UFC debut back in May. She was even money to submit Sam Hughes, and she nearly did in the first round, but after that attempt failed, Amorim's gas tank matched. She was dominated in a clear loss as a -280 favorite.

Amorim's squeeze didn't prove to be very strong at the UFC level, and her takedown accuracy was a poor 20%. Counting out Montserrat Conejo here would be blasphemy.

Conejo authored one of the oddest fights in UFC history when she bullied Cheyanne Vlismas with a headlock for nearly the entire duration of the fight in 2021, and her second fight seems forgivable in hindsight. She was quickly knocked out by Amanda Lemos, who will challenge for this division's title next month.

Vlismas is a two-time winner in this division, yet Conejo landed four of her five takedowns in that one. She showed real strength in this division that Amorim didn't against similarly credentialed opposition.

This would be a whopper of a decision in a pick 'em, but the giant price on Amorim is laughable even if she finds a way.

Betting Verdict

• The price on Conejo's moneyline (+198) is good enough that I'll take a half-unit dart despite the obvious experience and data concerns on both sides.
• All six of Amorim's wins are inside the full distance, but Conejo has just a 50% pro finishing rate. I'd lean toward the over 2.5 rounds (+120) with no action.

DFS Verdict

• Amorim showed almost no striking or knockout upside in her debut, and Conejo has never been submitted. This is another clear situation to save salary with the 'dog ($10) or move forward.

Martin Buday vs. Josh Parisian

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Josh Parisian was supposed to fight last month in a much better matchup.

Parisian was set to draw 40-year-old Walt Harris and his five minutes of cardio, lack of wrestling acumen, and substantial ring rust. Now, Parisian has a brutal test here in the form of the enigmatic Martin Buday.

These two will now square off in -- mostly -- a battle of strikers. Parisian has added 1.05 takedowns per 15 minutes historically, but three of the five total came in one fight, and his accuracy (33%) isn't great.

With that the case, I am not sure how Josh avoids getting hit enough to win. His striking defense (41%) is horrid, and his two UFC wins have come in come-from-behind fashion over foes a combined 0-5 in UFC against all others.

Buday has put forth an excellent 51% striking accuracy and 55% striking defense across three wins. Those three opponents also have seven UFC wins themselves, so the competition is arguably better, too.

This is a sloppy heavyweight fight in every sense of the term, and Buday's moneyline is undoubtedly juiced by a 3-0 record, but there is very little reason to expect Parisian to avoid getting hit enough to win a decision. Of these two, Parisian is also the one who has been KO'd.

Betting Verdict

• Buday's moneyline is bloated to a point of no return, but I don't mind a stab at Buday's decision prop (when it releases). There is an organic finishing upside baked into a heavyweight bout, but these have been two notable exceptions. Buday's lone knockdown came on an illegal strike.
• Over 2.5 rounds (-140) is the best play in the fight. There hasn't been knockdown power or a submission threat since either of these two found their way to UFC. The one drawback could be the short-notice nature of this fight, but heavyweights don't cut weight in the same fashion as others.

DFS Verdict

• There is a path to DFS viability here. Both pace north of four significant strikes per minute, and these are large trees that can topple. With that said and expecting a grind of a decision, Buday ($18) will be an uninspiring, non-MVP target for me here.

Francis Marshall vs. Isaac Dulgarian

Featherweight (145 pounds)

These are the delightful cluster-you-know-whats UFC gives me to parse through sometimes.

Francis Marshall's stock took quite a dip earlier this year. He landed just 15 of 132 significant strikes (11%) on William Gomis, showing Gomis' length advantage there caused substantial issues. However, with just a 33% striking accuracy to this point, Marshall hasn't been on target against anyone.

However, he has been able to wrestle. Marshall tightened the scorecards with Gomis by scoring over four minutes of control, and he's landed 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy in UFC-affiliated bouts to this point.

In some ways, UFC threw him a bone with this matchup to still be positioned as a favorite. Isaac Dulgarian's resumé is filled with turmoil. He's now switched to a striking gym with Factory X Muay Thai after falling victim to Glory MMA and Fitness' 2022 betting scandal, which could improve his well-roundedness.

Dulgarian's momentum to make UFC came through there as an excellent wrestler in Kansas, but now he's exiting a layoff exceeding a year with his new gym. Most importantly, Dulgarian's regional run has been dreadful. He knocked out a 40-year-old journeyman and submitted a 3-4 pro fighter before getting this call. Not great, Bob!

There are red flags on both sides. Marshall's are relatively small. His striking accuracy is low, but he'll be the better striker of these two. He's also never faced a takedown, but his wrestling offense is solid, and the two usually correlate.

Dulgarian's are massive. He's taken a year off, was initially matched with a bantamweight, has never fought longer than three minutes, and his competition level is dreadful. There are hundreds of MMA fighters and prospects that would have spit out a 5-0 record facing his competition.

With the least confidence of the week, I'll trust the veteran.

Betting Verdict

• Under 2.5 rounds (-160) is worth every bit of juice in this spot. Dulgarian's lack of fight time speaks for itself, but Marshall also attempts 12.36 significant strikes per minute. That's a pace that'll wilt struggling opponents.
• Marshall's moneyline (-180) has left the value station. It was around -150 earlier in the week. I'll avoid this fight from that perspective.

DFS Verdict

• The odds this fight finishes early help both of these fighters' cases as a high-upside DFS plug.
• Marshall ($16) could have MVP potential if Dulgarian fades and this fight turns into a rout, but the underdog could also be a useful piece.

Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden

Lightweight (155 pounds)

I joked on Twitter (or perhaps X?) that Terrance McKinney is diving back into the non-UFC-caliber pool for a quick win or two to ensure his roster spot.

He'll step in on under two weeks' notice to face Mike Breeden when Breeden was initially scheduled to face struggling ex-featherweight "Groovy" Lando Vannata. Breeden is now 0-3 in UFC-affiliated appearances, and McKinney will be arguably his toughest test to date.

"T-Wrecks" stunned the now-ranked Matt Frevola with a seven-second knockout, and he also submitted multi-time UFC winner Fares Ziam in short order. He's a few tiny breaks from a much better UFC record, having nearly finished Drew Dober with an early knockdown, and in his last fight, a missed foul when Nazim Sadykhov grabbed the fence quickly spoiled a fight he was dominating to that point. He ended up getting submitted.

Breeden has two paths to defeat here. He was knocked out early by Alexander Hernandez and holds a poor 41% striking defense, so the chin has failed him at times, and McKinney has two career knockdowns. Breeden also has a poor 59% takedown defense, which is arguably McKinney's bread and butter. He averages 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes.

There's a risk here for McKinney. He likely is cut on a 1-4 skid if Breeden -- who has eight regional KOs -- finds the chin. However, you have to think he's taking this fight on short notice for a good reason. If the fighter that dominated Sadykhov before the foul shows up, he'll likely submit the striker, Breeden, in short order.

Betting Verdict

• McKinney (-290) is likely the most volatile heavy favorite on the card behind his car-crash style and 43% striking defense, but I still would comfortably take his upside to win this fight. Breeden's striking D is lower with a history of knockout losses. It's just tough to make the argument for him anywhere.
• I'm right in line with the gaudy -280 odds this fight sees less than half its scheduled distance.

DFS Verdict

• McKinney has delivered in this spot; he's topped 100 FanDuel points in both previous UFC appearances as a favorite of -200 or larger. Breeden has also surrendered at least 120 FanDuel points in both UFC appearances so far. T-Wrecks ($21) is one of three clear top MVP candidates this week.

Marcus McGhee vs. JP Buys

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

It's really hard to see a path for JP Buys in this one.

Buys has made five UFC-affiliated appearances. Outside of a win on Dana White's Contender Series, he's been knocked out three times and knocked down eight times. It's not just a chin issue, either; that's going to happen with a terrible 39% striking D.

The South African's upside is wrestling, so it's bad news for him that Marcus McGhee defended all six takedowns in his debut and scored a submission over Journey Newson.

McGhee, training with UFC vets like Jared Cannonnier and Kyler Phillips at MMA Lab in Arizona, also had a +1.71 striking success rate (SSR) in his debut. He'll undoubtedly have that edge here.

Buys has been able to make flyweight, indicating smaller-than-ideal size for this division. He'll likely need to bully McGhee in a way his first foe couldn't, and Newson has more UFC success to his name than Buys. It's easy to make "The Maniac" the best pick to win this weekend.

Betting Verdict

• McGhee's hefty moneyline (-385) is worthy of parlays this week. I'll specifically look to his knockout prop (-145), which might be slightly shaved due to the submission in his debut.
• Under 1.5 rounds at -136 seems like a low-cost way to back a dominant McGhee win, but it also hedges an injury or disaster.

DFS Verdict

• Buys has surrendered at least 110 FanDuel points in two of his three appearances. He was still knockdown down four times (48 FanDuel points) in the exception of facing a low-volume foe. McGhee is a pristine MVP candidate at $23.

Josh Fremd vs. Jamie Pickett

Middleweight (185 pounds)

This entry level of middleweight is usually violent and hard to predict.

With that said, Josh Fremd has a pretty monstrous betting number here without much substance in UFC thus far. He was taken down three times (on four attempts) and submitted by Tresean Gore in his debut, and he followed that with a second-round win over Sedriques Dumas in his UFC debut.

Fremd has walked through the fire to emerge 1-1. His 42% striking defense and 31% takedown defense are both awful, and he largely just used a jiu-jitsu base to easily clear Dumas, who showed last month in Jacksonville he quite literally doesn't have one.

The problem is Jamie Pickett does, but he hasn't performed well in that area, either. He's got four pro losses by submission to zero wins, averaging just 0.40 attempts per 15 with UFC.

However, in a much larger sample, Pickett has proven he can wrestle (1.36 takedowns per 15), and he lands more significant strikes per minute (3.16) with a higher striking defense (48%) than Fremd. He's also fought tougher competition; four of his five losses have come to multi-time UFC winners, including Bo Nickal in his last appearance.

"The Night Wolf" was indeed stomped by Nickal, and Fremd emerged victorious in March, so that might explain such a wide gap in betting odds for a low-level fight. Still, Fremd's unknown skill set and horrible defense are an absolutely terrible proposition at this number. It's even worse when he badly missed weight on Friday.

Betting Verdict

• I'll lay at least a half-unit on Pickett's moneyline (+270) wherever it ends up. It's currently on a meteoric rise. He just shouldn't be such a distant underdog with athletic advantages, better peripherals, and significantly more UFC experience.
• Another way to approach this fight could be a multiple unit bet on Pickett hedged with Fremd's submission prop (+240). The jiu-jitsu department is Fremd's key edge here.

DFS Verdict

• Fremd could absolutely post an MVP-worthy score with a first-round submission, but his own warts could prove to make Pickett ($9) the distant underdog on the card that emerges victorious. With so many heavy favorites, that fighter will be a massive part of an optimal FanDuel build.

Tafon Nchukwi vs. AJ Dobson

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Tafon Nchukwi has taken some time off to round out a middleweight physique, and I kind of forgot how good he was.

Nchukwi posted a stellar +2.02 SSR with plus marks in striking accuracy (52%) and defense (55%) despite just a 2-3 UFC record so far. With losses to three ranked or fringe-ranked foes (Junyong Park, Carlos Ulberg, and Azamat Murzakanov), that record is nothing to be ashamed of.

"Da Don" struggled with light heavyweight power, suffering his only two losses by finish at 205 pounds. He dominated the aforementioned Pickett for a win at 185 earlier in his career, and his largest concern is the unknown of his grappling. He hasn't offered a UFC submission himself, largely using a 71% takedown D to stay at striking range. He did also miss weight on Friday.

I don't love AJ Dobson's chances if it stays at that range. Dobson has fought through two difficult matchups with Armen Petrosyan (4-1 UFC) and Jacob Malkoun (3-2 UFC) to post a 46% striking accuracy and 47% defense. Length is usually an advantage for him, but he'll be at a one-inch deficit to Nchuwki.

With a pair of regional submissions, Dobson is being forecasted with the grappling edge here, but I'm not sure it's a large enough edge. Nchukwi survived two attempts from Park, who has won three straight via submission. Dobson has just one unsuccessful attempt in UFC.

Nchuwki was beating Murzakanov, a ranked 205'er, less than 80 seconds of octagon time ago in his career. He's shown zero durability issues at middleweight. Dobson is a popular pick as a once-great prospect potentially writing the ship, but I just don't know where he'd best Nchuwki.

Betting Verdict

• There's enough unknown in this bout that I'm not rushing to the window at -148 for Nchuwki, but fight-day movement toward Dobson could bring me aboard. A majority of tracked handicappers like the other side.
• All four of these fighters' bouts at middleweight have gone the distance. Over 2.5 rounds at -104 feels like a gift and will be my primary action here.

DFS Verdict

• Nchuwki ($16) carries quite a bit of implied win probability (60.0%) for his salary because of other lopsided favorites. With both fighters north of five significant strikes per minute at distance, this could be an extremely fantasy-relevant bout if contested at distance.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Polyana Viana

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

At just 21 years old, Iasmin Lucindo isn't anywhere near her prime yet, and it shows in her results thus far.

She went the distance (and lost) to Yazmin Jauergui (1-2 UFC), and she wasn't able to finish the inept Brogan Walker (0-2 UFC) as the aforementioned Juliana Miller did -- though that was at 125 pounds.

There's a fair question how much power Lucindo packs despite a decent +0.14 SSR to this point. She's added 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes (on solid 57% accuracy) but hasn't put forth a UFC submission attempt or defended a takedown.

Polyana Viana will answer a few questions for us. Averaging 2.4 submission attempts per 15, Viana should -- at the very least -- try a couple on Lucindo. She's shown the willingness to pull guard onto her back to do so. Viana is also an interesting striker (+0.64 SSR) coming off a knockout win over Jinh-Yu Frey.

Therefore, with Viana holding the submission and knockout upside based on what we've seen so far, I don't know how Lucindo covers this massive moneyline in her favor. If I had to narrow down a particular concern for her, it's two regional losses by submission with the creative "Dama de Ferro" set to test her for the first time at this level.

There are more upsets in all four women's divisions than any single men's one. When in doubt, the underdog is probably the right side, but there's legitimate known upside from Viana at this point.

Betting Verdict

• Viana's moneyline (+148) has gotten 0.5 units from me. It's too good to pass up the UFC experience with legitimate upside in areas Lucindo -- at such a young age -- can't possibly have filled in at this point.
• Liking Viana correlates well with under 2.5 rounds (+134) given her willingness to put herself in a bad spot to get submissions. Her 50% takedown D is also a potential opening for Lucindo's ground-and-pound attack, which is likely her best chance to finish this one.

DFS Verdict

• In a similar mold to Nchukwi/Dobson, the salaries on FanDuel here aren't as large as usual because of all the heavy favorites. Even then, Lucindo has shown zero finishing equity in UFC thus far, and Viana hasn't been finished since 2019. It's a total 'dog-or-pass spot for me in this realm.

Khalil Rountree vs. Chris Daukaus

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

This will be interesting no matter what.

Following a 2020 debut, Chris Daukaus flew through UFC's heavyweight division -- even known by everyone to be a bit chubby doing so -- and into the rankings. However, his natural size in top shape isn't ideal for the division, and as he met the powerful punches of Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes, and Jairzinho Rosenstruik, he suffered three straight losses by KO.

Now, he's making an effort to move down in better shape, and we've seen this work as recently as last week with Tanner Boser. There's a trade-off; heavyweight is generally less skilled than light heavyweight, but Daukaus got a really easy opponent to help with that transition.

Khalil Rountree has never authored a takedown or submission attempt in UFC; he's solely here to try and knock someone out. It's worked in five wins by knockout, and he's added a pair of decisions. Rountree lands just 3.67 significant strikes per minute with 38% accuracy, so call him Oppenheimer; he's just trying to construct a bomb.

Daukaus (+1.93 SSR) had much better striking peripherals at heavyweight than Rountree (-0.52). Even expecting those to fade, his 57% striking defense is considerably higher. Plus, if there is grappling, Daukaus is the one with a black belt in BJJ, and his brother, Kyle, is a three-time UFC winner as a grappler.

Daukaus' losses by knockout have Rountree -- a power puncher for this division -- expected to produce a fourth. However, on top of being not particularly efficient, Rountree can't match top-shelf heavyweight power. Of his last six bouts, three have gone to decision anyway.

It's easy to forget that Daukaus took shots from four heavyweights before this skid and beat them. His "chin issues" are significantly overplayed. If he's not planted here, he could be the more skilled man everywhere, and we know this is Daukaus' best physical conditioning -- without the extra weight -- of his career.

Betting Verdict

• I've already bet Daukaus at +162. My model has him favored here, so any bet at plus money would get a thumbs up. I'd keep it to a unit with his light-heavyweight sample non-existent to this stage.
• Rountree has proven to be fairly durable in fights he's losing. He's been finished twice in 13 UFC appearances. A small stab at this fight to go the entire distance (+420) could be sneaky should my forecast about the outcome hold.

DFS Verdict

• Rountree ($16) figures to be one of the most popular plays on the slate given Daukaus' knockout history. I love fading low-volume fighters without decision equity, and underdogs are brutal to find this week. I'll support Daukaus ($13) here, as well.

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Cub Swanson

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Approaching 40 years old, what Cub Swanson has left in the tank will determine this fight.

Swanson's lifetime peripherals prove him to have had the better peak than "Mean" Hakeem Dawodu, but he's not there anymore. A last-ditch effort to join the rankings at bantamweight resulted in a loss to Jonathan Martinez in Swanson's last bout.

In fact, Swanson's last six losses are all to fighters who are currently ranked or were before leaving UFC. He's fought top-shelf competition his entire tenure, so a 3-6 stretch at present doesn't mean he can't beat the unranked Dawodu.

Dawodu's last fight was pretty disastrous. Julian Erosa dominated him with 92 significant strikes and a pair of takedowns, and Erosa's moved forward to lose two straight by first-round knockout since that bout. That inspired digging deeper into his resumé, and I wasn't impressed.

Hakeem's only win over a fighter still with UFC is Julio Arce, and Arce is now unranked at 135 pounds. This would be Dawodu's best win -- as a -235 favorite -- at featherweight by a mile.

Most of all, Dawodu's lack of finishing danger will always keep him in a fight that could be decided by poor judging if nothing else. He's only scored one win by finish, and it was a knockout in the final minute of Yoshinori Horie in Horie's only UFC appearance.

Cub has faced tougher foes to earn an identical 50% striking accuracy and better 60% striking defense compared to Dawodu. I don't think I'll be able to avoid backing him when this fight is projected to go down to the wire.

Betting Verdict

• This fight to go the distance (-102) is my strongest bet of it. Dawodu has been the distance in seven of his nine bouts, and both of these striking defenses are excellent. Recent wins by finish make Swanson's durability at featherweight tough to project, but Hakeem getting the finish would be stunning, personally.
• Swanson's inside-the-distance prop (+500) is the ideal hedge to that bet, but I think I'll also end up on his moneyline (+186) with a decent shot to win a decision.

DFS Verdict

• FanDuel salaries correlate with moneylines, leaving Dawodu ($20) extremely oversalaried on this card compared to his peers. Punting to $10 with Swanson -- in a fight where he's all but guaranteed 15 minutes to score fantasy points -- could be a rewarding move if most of these distant underdogs come up empty.

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Vicente Luque

Welterweight (170 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

I don't know if there's a high-level fighter in UFC with a less relevant sample for a main event than Rafael Dos Anjos in this spot.

Dos Anjos defeated Bryan Barbarena, loser of three straight, in a return to this 170-pound division last December, but Barbarena's 49% takedown D was tailor-made for RDA's wrestling. He averages 2.05 takedowns per 15, and the cerebral Brazilian loves to use them to avoid damage.

Before that, RDA was knocked out by Rafael Fiziev at lightweight. That disappointment followed consecutive fights as a heavy favorite versus Renato Moicano and Paul Felder, who both accepted the fight on less than seven days' notice. He just hasn't had a lot of positive, quality data against ranked fighters of late.

I'm shocked he's trying this move to welterweight again at 38 years old because it didn't go well in his prime. He was taken down 34 times across a 3-4 record from his first stint at 170, and Vicente Luque is one of the division's best athletes.

However, Luque doesn't wrestle, so the entirety of this fight could hinge on his own 61% takedown defense. Most of that damage came from a six-takedown effort by title contender Belal Muhammad; Luque has ceded just five takedowns total since the start of 2018 against all others.

Vicente's 52% striking defense bit him last August against the powerful, accurate Geoff Neal, so he's likely delighted for the reprieve from top-shelf power here. On offense, Luque's 5.49 significant strikes per minute (with 52% accuracy) can match anyone in the division.

Dos Anjos' bout with Fiziev is my greatest concern for him here. His 61% striking defense is great, but Luque's 1.02% knockdown rate shows he just needs one clean shot as the natural 170-pounder to put his lights out.

This pick 'em basically juxtaposes two rationales. In one camp, RDA is able to stay sensible at range, limits Luque's striking offense, and Vicente's takedown defense is an issue that the former 155-pound champion can exploit. In the other, Luque is the bigger, stronger, more powerful athlete in his prime, and even if he's taken down, he's got five UFC wins by submission.

In 25-minute fights, there is more time for the small-sample event (a knockout or submission) to happen. We saw that in RDA's bout with Fiziev. I can't help but think the prime fighter in his correct weight class finds a way to get back on track.

Betting Verdict

• I've laid a unit on Luque's moneyline at +100, but I'd take him anywhere south of -125. Both of these guys fought Michael Chiesa, and while RDA was dominated, Luque submitted "The Maverick" in the first round. That difference in physicality, to me, should define this fight.
• Luque's inside-the-distance props (+150) and under 4.5 rounds (-136) are the corollary totals to target for that outcome. Dos Anjos' last win by finish against a ranked fighter with a full camp came in May of 2019, so target overs to support him.

DFS Verdict

• The salaries are raised for the five-rounder, and while both fighters have a certain floor of points, RDA amassed just 44.4 FanDuel points against Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev and Luque have similar analytical profiles, and Luque is larger. I don't know where he builds on that effort here.
• Luque (3.76) is fifth on the card in FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses), so he's a sneaky MVP candidate. There are better favorites, but he's got the pace to take advantage of two extra rounds to work.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.