UFC 295: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira, taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday.

Jamall Emmers vs. Dennis Buzukja

Featherweight (145 pounds)

There's an alternate path where Jamall Emmers' career looks significantly different than the 2-4 record he's held. It's why I've always felt he was a bit underrated.

"Pretty Boy" hurt Pat Sabatini (5-1 UFC) early in their 2021 fight, and that would have been a signature win that propelled him up the ranks. Instead, he lost over a year to an ACL injury suffered when Sabatini grabbed his leg, and he's also bookended that fight with split-decision losses to Giga Chikadze and Jack Jenkins. He's inches from a five-fight winning streak, and that's largely seen in his peripherals.

He's added 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes to a quality +1.16 striking success rate (SSR), and he's a defensive challenge for opponents. His striking (57%) and takedown (90%) defense against high-level opponents has been great. That's how he coasted by Khusein Ashkabov (0-1 UFC) earlier this year, but he is now 34 years old and hasn't really had a moment of note in a fight since the knee injury. Dennis Buzukja is an interesting opponent for him, and he's no free win.

Buzukja trains with Serra-Longo MMA, who have two other lightweights to come on this card. Because of the quality gym, he got a last-minute call to fight Sean Woodson in Kansas City, and it went about as poorly as possible. Woodson, an excellent kickboxer, was expected to post close to the +29 striking differential he had, but "The Sniper" is a poor grappler and actually scored four takedowns and 5:52 in control time. It looked like an exhibition fight for Woodson in all phases.

There's still some uncertainty in that result when it was on days' notice, though, and Emmers' age and lack of finishing equity are somewhat concerning for the betting price he's showing here. Add in that he missed weight on Friday, and the chances for Buzukja -- a Long Island native -- to win in his home state are seemingly growing.

I've loved Emmers, but he's not the same guy he was in 2020. With this fight -260 to see over 2.5 rounds, a clunky decision in his favor would be my pick, but these are two fighters moving in opposite directions relative to their prime.

Betting Verdict

• FanDuel doesn't have props on this fight following Emmers' weight miss, but I have no interest in betting it. Buzukja showed nothing positive besides heart in his debut, and this will be the worst version of Jamall to date.
• Coinciding with that, I'd give the younger, more powerful Buzukja the better chance to finish the fight, which is why the over is so heavily juiced.

DFS Verdict

• Emmers' lack of finishing upside really hurts him here. Without any sort of confidence, I think the correct process play in DFS is Buzukja ($9) when he can win the fight.

Josh Van vs. Kevin Borjas

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

Setting a UFC flyweight record for significant strikes in a debut (120) should be a ticket to Austin's Fight of the Night every time. Welcome to the first of potentially many, Joshua Van.

Van skipped his scheduled appearance on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) to premiere in the majors, and he was the final chapter for an unlucky divisional stalwart, Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-7 UFC). Zhumagulov lost three straight via split decision to end his tenure, but he was competitively fighting ranked opponents, and Van -- at 22 years old -- did definitely win the bout. He landed 51% of his strikes and defended 64% of Zhumagulov's, erasing the favorite's projected path to victory by stuffing four of five takedowns.

Van should have a high-octane foe on the other side in his debut from DWCS, Kevin Borjas. Borjas pulled an upset of regional grappler Victor Dias to earn his ticket into UFC. Dias wilted after landing just 5 of his 12 takedown attempts on Borjas, and the 25-year-old from Peru used his hands to outpoint him. Shockingly, Dias never even recorded an official submission attempt.

Both of these prospects would rather work at distance, so we're likely not talking about stuffed takedowns here, and there are decent cases on both sides. Borjas likely has a bit more experience and three inches of reach as an advantage, but Van also significantly outperformed Borjas' 44% striking accuracy and 58% striking defense in a tougher matchup. Dias hasn't proven nearly as much as Zhumagulov at this level, and he's strictly a grappler.

Personally, I believe Borjas would have to show some grappling chops to win this fight, and with zero regional wins by submission, I have no faith he's better than Zhumagulov there. Van is an appropriate favorite in this spot.

Betting Verdict

• This was an easy choice for my Fight of the Night with two high-volume strikers at -112 odds to go to over 2.5 rounds. There isn't much knockout power on either side, but the favorite could be live for a submission, which is a prop not yet available on FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• Van ($21) doesn't have as much finishing upside as top-shelf contenders, but he already showed the ability to score 80-plus FanDuel points in a decision. There are paths to a ceiling if Borjas' jump from the regional scene doesn't go as planned.
• From a process perspective, I wouldn't blame anyone for making a floor play at the $8 underdog.

John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Can "Mr. Perfect" continue to defeat "Father Time"? Of course, that's in the metaphorical sense; I'm not referring to the nickname-less John Castaneda.

Kyung Ho Kang is quietly 8-2 in UFC since the start of 2014 with both losses coming at the hands of multi-time winners, Rani Yahya and Ricardo Ramos. Kang closed around a +130 underdog to undefeated prospect Cristian Quinonez in June, responding with a knockdown and submission win in the first round.

An incredibly well-rounded fighter, Kang's best skills come defensively with a 58% striking D and 70% takedown D in his gigantic, 12-fight sample. How is he the underdog with great historical results, you ask? He's 36 years old in a division built on speed and quickness, but I think it is noteworthy that his "fight age" might be much younger as required military service in South Korea sapped the prime of his career from 2015 through 2017.

Castaneda has a solid career going himself. His 4-2 record has received its only blemishes against Nathaniel Wood (7-3 UFC) and Daniel Santos (2-1 UFC), but the strength of victory leaves a bit to be desired. His four wins have a combined 4-7 UFC record since the start of 2020, and none are true "signature" names.

His style is tough to pin down -- which might be part of the problem. A -0.56 SSR hasn't shown well against Wood or Santos, and he only averages 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes with mediocre 38% accuracy.

I just don't have any confidence in him bothering Kang when Danaa Batgarel (3-4 UFC) and Quinonez brought instant action and historically land north of 5.20 significant strikes per minute. He vanquished both. Castaneda (4.24) likely struggles to mount high-level offense here.

Betting Verdict

• I'm astounded Kang (+116) is the underdog here. His recent wins have come against higher-credentialed opponents, he's got key experience advantages, and age is just a number when his peripherals have shown zero decline.
• At the same time, Mr. Perfect went to a decision in five of six fights before the wild firefight with Quinonez. I'd still lean toward over 2.5 rounds (-192) expecting his usual, deliberate approach.

DFS Verdict

• Though I'm not expecting the scoring outburst we got from Kang at $14 in his last fight, the value salary still looks great when projecting him to win this fight.

Jared Gordon vs. Mark O. Madsen

Lightweight (155 pounds)

It's kind of crazy how long two veterans in a weight class at the exact same level of competition can avoid each other. Jared Gordon and Mark O. Madsen have done that at lightweight, and I never really considered this matchup until it was announced.

The two have something in common -- getting bullied and submitted by Grant Dawson (ranked at 155) in Round 3. Dawson represents the only loss for both since the COVID break, but these two aren't poor wrestlers despite Dawson's showing, and they're very different MMA fighters.

Madsen is a former Olympic silver medalist, earning that title in 2016 for Greco-Roman wrestling. He's translated that wrestling skill to 3.09 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon with stellar accuracy (66%). As you'd expect, it's everything else that's held him back, posting a -0.43 SSR and yet to record an official UFC submission attempt.

Gordon hasn't ever attempted a UFC submission, either. He lags behind in both wrestling volume (2.01 takedowns per 15) and accuracy (40%), but Gordon has also been a lethally efficient striker. He's got a +2.04 SSR with elite striking accuracy (57%) and defense (58%) marks. He's topped 75 significant strikes in five different bouts.

These two have identical takedown defense marks (62%) that were largely damaged by Dawson. While I believe Madsen likely is the better wrestler, his analytics don't definitively state that, and his lack of submission danger has yet to lead to a win by finish. Gordon's exceptional striking will be a problem for him if he's unable to secure takedowns here.

Betting Verdict

• My model believes Gordon to win these striking exchanges 100.0% of the time, and the long history of both suggests that. With that the case, Madsen's lone path to victory is wrestling, and Gordon isn't a total zero there. That's why it shows Gordon as 61.3% likely to win.
• Both fighters are still searching for a first win via an early finish, and that obviously plays a huge role in the model pegging this one 91.1% likely to see its full duration.

DFS Verdict

• At $19, Gordon's striking volume can help overcome concerns about an early finish, but there's also a version of this fight where Madsen's early wrestling advances are stuffed and it becomes a lopsided beatdown that results in a TKO.
• Without any known submission danger, Madsen's low rate of FDPPM excl. bonuses (3.18) shows his path to fantasy points here is extremely narrow.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Lightweight (155 pounds)

As a fan (and prognosticator) of Viacheslav Borshchev's last fight, we're back to answering his key question here.

"Slava Claus" has been a phenomenal striker this entire time. We know that from a +1.19 SSR where he's spent over half his tenure controlled by opponents. The Russian just has some of the worst takedown defense on UFC's active roster (35%). His last fight against Mahashate -- exclusively a sloppy striker -- was a picture-perfect matchup for him to secure his first UFC win. However, this division is so deep that those matchups will be few and far between.

Most of them look like Nazim Sadykhov, the Serra-Longo product that trains with Matt Frevola, Aljamain Sterling, and other top UFC fighters in this weight range. Using a few dirty tactics, Sadykhov was able to make a statement in his last fight by submitting the always-dangerous Terrance McKinney (5-4 UFC). He also prevailed in a war against Evan Elder (1-2 UFC) earlier this year.

Serra-Longo MMA -- whether from Sterling, Frevola, or Merab Dvalishvili -- is famous for wrestling, but oddly, "Black Wolf" hasn't really done that. He landed his only career takedown attempt on Elder, but it would be coaching malpractice to look at Borshchev's history and decide to strike for 15 minutes -- regardless of how confident Nazim behind his own +0.63 SSR.

This one has the potential for me to scream at my television, but overwhelmingly, I believe Sadykhov can wrestle and clear this Borshchev hurdle just as Marc Diakiese and Mike "Beast Boy" Davis did. Borshchev's four knockdowns have all come against foes with a sub-50% striking defense, and Sadykhov (56%) has been solid in that area so far. That's his one path to win, and I don't see it.

Betting Verdict

• Sadykhov's submission skills in his last fight present a new test for Borschev. His previous opponents are 0-for-1 for their entire collective careers on submission attempts, and Sadykhov is already 1-for-1. His submission prop (+420) is a must play for yours truly.
• I do agree with the -190 odds this fight ends inside the full distance. On top of the submission danger, Borschev's 2.30% knockdown rate is massive, and his urgency to land power shots should be present throughout.

DFS Verdict

• This is a mid-range fight that should prove pivotal to get right for fantasy tournaments. I just haven't seen enough wrestling defense from Borschev ($14) to believe he can stop it from any UFC-caliber lightweight.

Loopy Godinez vs. Tabatha Ricci

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

I've been buying one of these ladies non-stop and selling the other, so I truly had to turn every stone and check my bias here.

Loopy Godinez has been the "buy", and taking nine fights in three years is largely why. I've got a growing, significant sample that Godinez's skills in all areas are for real. She planted a one-dimensional striker, Elise Reed, in her last bout and holds a +1.30 SSR overall. The hands were always my concern for her; she's easily grabbed 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 47% accuracy her entire tenure. If you're wondering if there's any submission danger from her, she found six (!) attempts against Reed.

As for Tabatha Ricci, she's in a developmental stage where Godinez was about 18 months ago. She's yet to truly put a meaningful result on paper, submitting 40-year-old Jessica Penne and outpointing Gillian Robertson (-0.61 SSR) in 2023 to this point. Both of those results don't prove a top-shelf contender yet, and Ricci's -0.33 SSR overall isn't particularly strong.

Godinez has faced former ranked 115-pounders like Cynthia Calvillo and Emily Ducote that tried to take her down, and she's got an elite 82% takedown D through those efforts. Ricci's 48% takedown accuracy is fine given her strength of schedule so far, but do I have any belief that it'll be a game-changing element in this fight with Loopy? Quite the opposite.

Godinez's analytics are arguably stronger than Ricci's against competition that is inarguable better or more plentiful; Ricci has just five UFC fights to her name. I see her as a much more confident favorite than FanDuel -- paying respect to Ricci's unbeaten record at 115 -- does.

Betting Verdict

• My model almost always leans toward underdogs, but I've got Godinez positioned as a -185 favorite in this spot despite the number sitting at just -178 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • I've got Godinez at +485 (17.1% implied) to win via submission, showing the most value of any prop compared to the +1000 odds at FanDuel.
• Long-term decision trends are all over these two's results, and I'd argue this is each's toughest test in 2023 to this point. The 72.5% odds my model assigns for this fight to go the full distance feel appropriate.

DFS Verdict

• If I was playing things appropriately from a process perspective, Godinez ($17) would likely need better than a decision to be relevant, but she's topped 70 FanDuel points in each of her last four decision wins. I actually feel fine with her floor, but the ceiling concerns limit her to non-MVP consideration.

Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Lightweight (155 pounds)

This fight serves two excellent purposes. It gave Mateusz Rebecki a way to collect his pay after Nurullo Aliev dropped out due to injury, and we got a no-doubt favorite on a card that previously didn't have one.

Rebecki has largely followed in the footsteps of his countryman, Mateusz Gamrot, in this same division. He amassed an impressive 15-1 record regionally in Poland before shifting to UFC-affiliated competition, where he's a perfect 3-0 to this point. Rebecki has been a dual threat, dominating Loik Radzhabov (1-1 UFC) with leg kicks to amass a +3.39 SSR overall, and he also smothered Nick Fiore (0-2 UFC) using his wrestling. His analytical profile is nearly perfect following three dominant efforts.

He'll welcome Roosevelt Roberts back to UFC. Roberts was arguably hosed on The Ultimate Fighter by a poor decision earlier this year, missing his shot to rejoin the promotion through the reality show. Roberts had a 5-4 official record with UFC, but after three straight losses all coming via a decisive finish, the promotion waved goodbye. He had a +0.02 SSR and landed 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, so "The Predator" was not a bad fighter by any means.

The problem for him here is the matchup. I don't believe he took this fight expecting to win it; rather, his next few were top of mind. Rebecki lands 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Roberts' poor takedown D (58%) was initially what cost him his job. Roosevelt also never scored a UFC knockdown and doesn't have much power, which may mean that he's not able to make use of a seven-inch reach advantage with moments that can win him the bout.

"Chinczyk" likely keeps rolling here, but now, Roberts will get another shot at his appropriate competition level later. Everyone wins.

Betting Verdict

• Though not available on FanDuel as Roberts missed weight on Friday, I'll be looking for Rebecki's inside-the-distance prop as soon as possible. On days' notice, Roberts' defensive grappling and thin legs are a nightmare matchup for Rebecki's powerful kicks and excellent wrestling.

DFS Verdict

• I was really, really nervous about this DFS card before this matchup was announced, but Rebecki ($23) gives me the no-doubt MVP candidate that I was longing for.

Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

These flyweights made a splash in their last bout, and we'll see which one prevails here to creep closer to the top 10 of the division.

Steve Erceg took one bout to enter the rankings at 125, dominating 15th-ranked David Dvorak for a decision win. "Astroboy" left the fight with a +0.07 SSR, but he really had his most success landing three of four takedowns. Dvorak also went to a decision and lost to two top-five fighters, Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau, so Erceg proved his ability quickly in one night.

I'm still waiting for a bit of that from Alessandro Costa. Costa's rocky, two-fight UFC stint saw him lose comfortably to a top-five fighter (Amir Albazi) by third-round KO, and he dominated the fragile, 33-year-old Jimmy Flick (1-2 UFC) to score his first promotional victory earlier this year. Costa's 63% striking defense and 91% takedown defense are impressive, but most of the positive from his sample encapsulates Flick and his bid on DWCS.

Without much conviction in Costa's ability, this could be a step back for Erceg. His 5'8" frame represents elite size for the division, and he'll tower over Costa -- among others -- moving forward.

This is a short-notice bout for Alessandro, and I don't love that entering unquestionably his toughest test outside of Albazi. He was dropped twice by Albazi in that state, and Erceg has already shown enough to believe he's in the same vicinity of talent. Erceg is in a solid position to score the win.

Betting Verdict

• Erceg only has one knockout on his resumé, but I'm intrigued by his KO/TKO prop (+500) here because of Costa's record. He was dropped twice by Albazi (a grappler), and two of his three pro losses were knockouts. If Erceg gets it done inside the distance, that's likely how.

DFS Verdict

• Erceg ($17) likely doesn't command much attention here, but with massive size advantages and the one of these two on a full camp, I wouldn't be surprised by a finish whatsoever.

Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes

Featherweight (145 pounds)

This intersection of grapplers should be fascinating.

Pat Sabatini is the favorite, and he's had much more of a traditional rise to prominance for a prospect. Sabatini is 5-1 in UFC starting from the bottom, and he's bullied foes for 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid 45% accuracy. His lone bits of adversity came when standing behind a subpar 51% striking defense, losing via early knockout to Damon Jackson and getting dropped by Jamall Emmers. Sabatini's submission volume (1.9 attempts per 15 minutes) is also climbing; he won his last bout via sub.

No one in the UFC will top Diego Lopes' submission volume, though. Lopes is a true throwback that looks for crafty submissions off his back, attempting 5.6 per 15 minutes to this point. On a few days' notice, Lopes gave Movsar Evloev (7-0 UFC) his toughest test yet in a decision and nearly connected on a couple of submissions. Then, he submitted Gavin Tucker (4-3 UFC) via first-round armbar.

Sabatini might plant Lopes (and his 33% takedown D) on his bum a few times in this fight, but he showed great ability to escape against Evloev, and his jiu-jitsu is at a level where I can't see Sabatini finding a traditional choke.

In fact, I believe this fight, ultimately, could be most dangerous for both at distance. Sabatini's struggles there are well-documented, but he still hits pretty hard, and Lopes' 36% striking defense has been shockingly poor to this point.

If handicapping this fight comes down to the striking, Lopes should be its favorite. He entered UFC with back-to-back knockout wins; we just haven't seen him able to use his hands to this point.

Sabatini has no such striking history or pedigree, and his five wins have come over opponents 5-7 in UFC against all others. I believe the Brazilian to be more dangerous than the Philadelphian wherever this fight goes.

Betting Verdict

• Lopes is the always-terrifying popular underdog, but I've already seen his survivability against a better MMA fighter in all areas, Evloev.
• I love a dart at Lopes' KO/TKO prop (+450) when most are expecting the submission volume. I'm looking at his regional KO success against a fighter with a chin proven to be poor.

DFS Verdict

• These two show identical $15 salaries, but I don't trust Sabatini's upside to finish high-level competition. Against lesser foes, he's been to a decision in three of his five wins.

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Matt Frevola

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Is Benoit Saint Denis the best lightweight in the world besides the champion? He's on the shortlist for many through near perfect results at 155 pounds so far.

On a four-fight finishing streak since moving to 155, Saint Denis mauled Thiago Moises (7-5 UFC) with 101 significant strikes and 5 takedowns in under two rounds. The "God of War" has somehow corrected his SSR (+0.32) from a -82 striking differential in his debut, which came on short notice at 170 pounds against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He's added 4.72 takedowns per 15 minutes with decent 36% accuracy overall.

He'll have to defeat another rising stock with Matt Frevola on the other side. Frevola was a middling wrestler with a 3-3-1 UFC record entering 2022, but the Serra-Longo product has clearly improved his striking to a point where lightweights haven't been able to hang. In three straight first-round knockouts, he's amassed six knockdowns.

There's a significant gap in previous competition between these two. Saint Denis' four lightweight opponents have a combined 9-10 record with the promotion, but Frevola has a ranked win (Jalin Turner) on his resumé, and he went the distance with top-10 contender Arman Tsarukyan on short notice in 2021.

Frevola's doesn't come with many key flaws. Tsaruykan's 10-for-12 effort on takedowns leads to a 42% defense overall, but Frevola has defended 7 of 9 attempts from all others. It's possible Saint Denis is on that same level, but I'm otherwise expecting a fairly competitive fight here between two wrecking balls at 155 pounds finally fighting at the right difficulty level.

Betting Verdict

• Saint Denis' recent form can't be ignored, but I've got him positioned as a -130 favorite compared to the -230 mark at FanDuel. Frevola will be the first to truly test his striking and wrestling at a ranked level. I am leaning that BSD is slightly overvalued here.
• I've got these recent finishers at 93.1% likely to end this one inside the full distance, but length would benefit Frevola of these two. Saint Denis has never been finished, and "Steamrolla" has two losses by first-round KO on his record.

DFS Verdict

• Really, both of these guys have been terrifying fades in DFS recently, so there's no comfort on either side here. I do agree with my model's valuation that the odds Frevola ($10) can win this fight in a fantasy-relevant fashion probably aren't getting enough respect.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

When I started UFC content for numberFire nearly four years ago, I wouldn't have even had to think about a potential Jessica Andrade-Mackenzie Dern matchup. It's definitely now at least a question.

Andrade, a former 115-pound champ, has lost three consecutive fights, and some of it is her own doing. She took all three within a six-month period that some fighters take to prepare for one. Last seen in August, this three-month layoff isn't a huge one, but she did get a full camp (for her) in before this bout.

At her best, Andrade is an energetic volume puncher, landing 6.68 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy. She put a divisional record (231) on Lauren Murphy (8-5 UFC) earlier this calendar year, so don't wash the 32-year-old by any means. She has also added 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes with elite accuracy (54%) and defended incoming attempts at a high clip (70%).

At the end of the day, she's just lost to three short-notice fights to future-or-former title contenders, and two came via submission. Dern -- to this point -- hasn't shown to have that staying power, but many still have high hopes for the former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion after her last bout.

Mackenzie blasted through Angela Hill -- ranked 12th in this division -- with a +60 striking differential, landing 3 takedowns on 9 tries. She even floored Hill with a punch at one point. That was her best effort at 115 pounds by a landslide after previous losses to Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan encroaching the top five.

Even in that bout, Dern landed just 33% of her takedowns, and that's been the issue. Her 15% takedown accuracy is actually the lowest in UFC history for a fighter with at least 50 attempts, but her submission volume (1.5 attempts per 15 minutes) is plentiful and dangerous if she can get the fight there.

Despite Andrade's struggles, my model is giving her a 97.9% chance to be the better striker here, and I agree with that. She's also historically defended takedowns extraordinarily well despite recent blips and submission losses to Erin Blanchfield and Tatiana Suarez -- both unbeaten in UFC.

This feels like my favorite type of UFC bet. I'm buying Andrade at an absolute low point with failures against the absolute best of competitors, and Dern's stock has never been higher despite known warts and shortcomings. Dern's win over Hill doesn't mean very much when forecasting a top-five battle.

Betting Verdict

• Grappling acumen, recent form and age slide in Dern's favor, but everything else slants toward Andrade in this bout analytically -- including strength of schedule. I've got Andrade modeled as a -120 favorite in a fight where she's a +168 underdog, and I personally agree with that.
• Interestingly, my model has this fight 61.5% to go the distance as Dern has in each of her last four fights. Andrade's recent early losses -- against stronger competition -- have resulted in odds that imply just a 37.6% chance on FanDuel Sportsbook.

DFS Verdict

• If this fight is extended, we've got prolific finishes in the five-rounders to come, and many already exist on the card. Dern ($19) needs one to be relevant, so I'll take the salary savings with my model's favorite, Andrade ($11).

Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Five-Round Interim Title Fight

UFC has turned the heavyweight belt into a legacy-driven charade for Jon Jones, and karma struck them down as Jones was removed from this marquee card due to injury. A better fight between better fighters will ensue.

No one wants -- or has been able to handle -- a piece of these two heavyweights. Sergei Pavlovich has won all seven of his UFC bouts by first-round knockout and is a -104 underdog here. That really sums up the gravity of this bout.

Pavlovich is everything you'd expect with a "baddest man on the planet". He's yet to be forced into a grappling situations as his absurd 4.83% knockdown rate has vanquished every single foe easily. He's amassed a +4.39 SSR for his efforts with a striking D (57%) that shows he does have technical ability behind those powerful hands. Of course, the question or issue with Pavlovich is the unknown. If Tom Aspinall can take the shots, can he grapple at all? How will his pace hold later into a fight?

If we're asking those questions on Saturday, Aspinall has likely devoured another challenger. The pride of England's lone UFC loss was an ACL tear seconds into his fight with Curtis Blaydes, but he's arguably the most well-rounded heavyweight of all-time already. He's added 3.7 takedowns and 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes to a +2.42 SSR. We'd also be lauding his 2.42% knockdown rate if not for Pavlovich's absurd mark.

The handicap on this fight isn't difficult. If you're of the belief Pavlovich takes another head off here, I can't exactly argue with you. However, if Aspinall can survive the shots, he'll almost certainly be the better grappler with phenomenal marks of striking accuracy (66%) and defense (65%) -- both better than Pavlovich's in a larger sample.

These near-pick 'em odds show a ton of respect to Pavlovich's power, but I feel like Aspinall is the best heavyweight I've ever seen, and his data backs that up. A -118 moneyline to expect him to prevail is a price I'm absolutely willing to pay.

Betting Verdict

• My data model factors in power, but Aspinall has enough of it that I have him projected as a -320 favorite. It will be a terrifying watch, but I do agree that Aspinall is significantly more experienced and well-rounded in all domains of MMA, so there is value at just a -118 price.
• This is a first for me; these two have never seen an eighth minute in 14 combined UFC fights, so my model is projecting a 100.0% chance this fight ends inside the final bell. Nothing is 100% in MMA, but don't go crazy at decision props for either fighter.

DFS Verdict

• This fight didn't get a bump for its five-round duration -- and for good reason. The positive expected value strategy in tournaments would be to roster one of these fighters -- for an assumed early finish -- in every lineup, but if you want to make a stand, I do heavily prefer Aspinall ($16) to win.

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

We knew Alex Pereira was heading to 205 pounds for massive fights, and he'll have a chance to become the ninth fighter in UFC history to win championships in two different divisions on Saturday.

Pereira vanquished longtime middleweight champion Israel Adesanya before it was in style and was oddly forced -- despite his wishes -- to 205 pounds shortly after a shocking, unlucky KO loss in the rematch that he was winning. "Poatan" survived early wrestling success by former 205-pound champ Jan Blachowicz to squeak out a decision and set up this opportunity.

The former Glory kickboxing champion lives and dies by his striking (+1.41 SSR) without much experience in the grappling department, but he's added a solid 70% takedown defense within advantageous matchups to make it work. Blachowicz was -- by far -- the best grappler he'd faced, but the 41-year-old just ran out of steam and was unable to keep his early success going.

Jiri Prochazka is a hurdle any prospective 205er has to clear. The former division champion never lost this belt in the cage; he simply suffered a terrible shoulder injury and, honorably, vacated this belt last fall. Prochazka is UFC's mystery man, ascending to a championship opportunity with just two dominant wins over former title challengers. He won it by submitting Glover Teixeira in the domain that made Teixeira (7-1 in UFC by sub) famous.

Pereira's hands of steel are intimidating, but his relative power at this higher weight class didn't seem to bother Blachowicz, and that's an issue. Prochazka's lone drawback to this point has been a willingness to eat damage (40% striking defense), but he's actually landed more significant strikes per minute (5.77) than Pereira (5.11) with excellent 55% accuracy.

Poatan (62% accuracy) is still the better striker, but he'll need to land with power to make a true difference. Prochazka showed tremendous defensive wrestling against Teixeira. He wanted to stay on his feet and didn't attempt a takedown, but defending 12 of 17 attempts from Glover was great work, and he ended up submitting the future Hall of Famer. Even not expecting Jiri to wrestle, I feel comfortable picking him to win.

The warning signs for Pereira, as a favorite, add up quickly here. Most supporters would acknowledge his limitations grappling, but he's also shown vulnerability to eat power punches against Adesanya, and he's sneaky old at 36. Fighters at 35 or older taking on a fighter younger than 35 (Jiri is 31) are 2-30-1 in their last 33 UFC title attempts. "BJP" has plenty of ways to win this fight and keep that trend intact.

Betting Verdict

• My model has what we could all hope for in a UFC title. It's projected Prochazka at 50.0% to win, and it's projecting Pereira at 50.0% to win. Given the age trend and Prochazka's well-roundedness, he's an easy choice as the +102 'dog to me.
• Interestingly, I've got this fight at 48.9% to go the distance, and FanDuel Sportsbook only implies a 21.3% chance of that. Prochazka was 28 seconds from a full fight in his last appearance, and I could see his pace being a bit reduced following the shoulder issue.

DFS Verdict

• Both fighters have higher-than-normal salaries in a fight that could see distance, but I prefer Prochazka ($18) to win, and to me, Pereira's lessened power at 205 pounds significantly reduces the odds he finds a fantasy-relevant finish for a $20 salary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.