Champions League Betting Picks for 10/24/23: Should We Back Napoli Away From Home?

The matchups we have yet to see in the group stage take place this week.

When looking at the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this slate?

Champions League Best Bets

Napoli at Union Berlin (3 p.m. ET )

Napoli ML (-110)

The reigning Italian champions Napoli aren't on fire like they were to start last season. They currently sit fourth in Serie A and have a win and a loss in the Champions League through two matches.

In Italy, Napoli are tied with league-leaders Inter for the best expected goals (xG) differential at 11.5, according to FBRef's model. Their loss in the UCL was a close one against Real Madrid, so that's understandable.

Today, they're facing Union Berlin on the road. The club from the German capital are in the UCL for the first time ever, and they've lost both games in the group thus far. They are also really struggling in the Bundesliga this season -- they've lost six games in a row and sit just above the relegation play-off spot.

Another aspect that hurts Union is that they aren't playing at their home stadium -- they are playing Champions League home matches at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. This is a much larger stadium than their normal home of the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei, with a capacity more than three times larger.

However, the intimate setting at their normal home stadium creates a more intimidating atmosphere than the large, former Olympic stadium that has a running track between the fans and the pitch. In their first home match in Matchday 2, Union blew a 2-0 lead to a Braga side that they should be better than, in theory.

Here, Napoli are the better team and are facing a Union Berlin squad with a mitigated home-field advantage. Napoli as a short favorite is a solid bet in this situation.

Real Sociedad at Benfica (3 p.m. ET)

Benfica ML (+120)

Portuguese giants Benfica have not gotten off to a great start in the Champions League. They've lost both of their group-stage matches so far and have yet to score a goal.

They've been their typical dominant selves in league play this season. After suffering a defeat on the opening day, they've won seven games in a row and are in second place. They've created the most xG in the Primera Liga and are second in xG differential.

Real Sociedad will be their opponents in this match. Sociedad are fifth in the La Liga table and have a win and a draw in the UCL. The advanced metrics aren't as kind to them -- they are only eighth in the league in xG differential per 90 minutes.

Benfica has great home form, winning four of five matches this season. Meanwhile, the Spanish visitors have won just two of five away matches this season.

With Benfica really needing a win to have any hope of qualifying from this group, they'll need to go all out for the three points. They also have an extra day of rest, having played on Friday in a cup match rather than on a Saturday like Sociedad did.

Benfica +120 is the side I am taking in this match.

Player Props

Rasmus Hojlund to Score (+120): Hojlund has three goals in two Champions League matches this season. He's playing on Tuesday's second-biggest favorite, and United are at home.

This match against FC Copenhagen is a date with Hojlund's boyhood club, where he came through the youth academy and was there until 2022. He also has twin younger brothers who are still with Copenhagen.

That is more anecdotal evidence than we'd like to justify a bet, but it does have some practicality. Hojlund may be more likely to shoot rather than pass today, and manager Erik Ten Hag may be more likely to allow him to stay on the pitch given these circumstances.

Even without the narratives, Hojlund can definitely score against a team at the level of Copenhagen, so +120 is a great number.

Jude Bellingham to Score (+150): The boy wonder, Jude Bellingham, has proven that the stage at Real Madrid is not too big for him in his first few months at the club.

At the age of just 20, Bellingham has scored 10 goals in 11 appearances for arguably the biggest club in the world. He leads La Liga with eight goals in nine games.

This +150 number isn't reflective of a player who has scored 10 times in 11 matches. It's like +150 because Bellingham plays in midfield. Real Madrid have embraced his ability to arrive late into the box and dribble past players, allowing him opportunities to score from an attacking-midfield spot.

Madrid are on the road against Braga on Tuesday. Braga have allowed the sixth-most expected goals in the Primeira Liga this season. It will be tough for them to slow down Real Madrid, even at home.

Bellingham's ascension to being one of the top players in the world has been remarkable. I wouldn't want to bet against him, and I am backing him to score in this game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.