Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 2

Betting Week 2 in the NFL is all about buying or rejecting tiny samples. Which teams will bounce back? Which teams' statements were for real? That's the science of one of my favorite weekends to bet all season.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 41.5 (-110)

The efficiency we saw from these teams last week doesn't suggest a defensive showdown.

Last year's top overall defense in numberFire's power rankings was the Cleveland Browns, but Cleveland graded out just 11th-best after a Week 1 where a one-dimensional Dallas Cowboys squad lit them up for 26 offensive points. On the flip side, there seems to be an overreaction to Deshaun Watson's struggles against Dallas, a top-three pass defense in the rankings last year.

Jacksonville ranks just 17th in overall defensive efficiency, according to numberFire, and we're likely talking about their offensive effort in South Florida last week much differently if Travis Etienne doesn't fumble on the one-yard line.

These are two progressive offensive coaches, which is why this game is fourth in combined pass rate over expectation, per our own Brandon Gdula's Week 2 pace and pass rate report. I expect better from both scoring units in this one -- but especially the Browns and their top-five offensive line.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

Anthony Richardson Over 244.5 Passing and Rushing Yards (-114)

The most stunning part of this line might be that Anthony Richardson somehow passed it last week.

Outside of a beautiful pair of bombs to Alec Pierce, Richardson struggled to a 47.4% completion rate, but it all graded out to an above-average 0.15 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) against Demeco Ryans and a Houston Texans defense that could be pretty solid.

Richardson's now topped this line in four of his five career contests where he played the full game and enters what should be a solid matchup. In a similar matchup against a dual-threat QB in Week 1, the Green Bay Packers are numberFire's 3rd-worst pass defense and 11th-worst overall defense entering Week 2.

There could be some fear that Malik Willis' struggles put Richardson on ice late in the game, but the Indianapolis Colts' weak rush defense and a three-point spread suggest the opposite. Our Week 2 fantasy football projections expect 259.5 combined passing and rushing yards for the Colts' signal-caller at a median, which would smash this prop.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Broncos +2.5 (-105)

Will Bo Nix's home debut be a delightful one for Denver Broncos fans?

He certainly will have a chance in what profiles to be an ugly, low-scoring game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Broncos on Sunday afternoon. At home coming off a week in which they -- somewhat competitively -- didn't cover the spread, I'll back them with the handicap against a Steelers team that stunned the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1.

We know Mike Tomlin's thing at this point: uglying it up and getting the right bounce. They're 10-2 straight up (SU) in their last 12 one-score games. At some point, math and regression has to hit the Steelers, and it usually is this spot. Action Network's Evan Abrams recounts that Tomlin is 21-35-2 against the spread (ATS) when opening as a favorite of at least 3.0 points on the road. There's probably a reason why this line dipped below that key number.

DRatings (2.1) and Massey Ratings (2.0) have this spread below 2.5 points, so there's a smidge of value on the Broncos getting two when every single point should be tough to come by in Denver.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.