Thursday Night Football Preview: Can the Buccaneers Keep Up With the Bills?

Thursday Night Football returns tonight with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) visiting the Buffalo Bills (4-3) at Highmark Stadium.

Both teams enter the night in the middle of a rough patch. They've each lost two of their last three games and, with a loss tonight, risk falling down the standings of their respective divisions. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be streamed on Prime Video.

The Buccaneers showed unanticipated promise to start the season. Despite coming into the preseason with a 6.5 win total on FanDuel Sportsbook, they managed to win three out of their first four games. Baker Mayfield looked good during this span, throwing for seven touchdowns (and two interceptions).

But in the two games since Tampa Bay's Week 5 bye, they fell to 3-3, while Mayfield threw just one touchdown to his two interceptions. Even still, the Bucs come into tonight with an improved 8.5 win total and a fairly breezy schedule on the horizon -- only two of their remaining 10 matchups following tonight will come at the hands of a current top-15 ranked team, per numberFire's nERD-based power rankings.

The Bills, as of late, have been a shell of the Buffalo team that opponents typically fear. We aren't even halfway through the NFL season, and the Bills have already lost as many games as they did last year, including two to the low-ranked New England Patriots and New York Jets.

They did manage to rout the Miami Dolphins, their biggest AFC East competitor, plus they've dealt with some fairly hefty injuries on defense, but a loss tonight would do no favors to their AFC East title hopes. With games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, and Dolphins on the horizon, the Bills have very little room for error against little brother matchups like tonight.

Buccaneers at Bills Week 8 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Bills -8.5 (-110)
• Total: 43.5
• Moneyline:
  • Bills: -405
  • Buccaneers: +320

Buccaneers at Bills Week 8 Matchup Analysis

With an 8.5-point spread (tied for second-highest in Week 8), the market, despite the Bills' recent struggles, is treating Buffalo like the great team they're known as. Given the rank differentials between them and the Bucs, Tampa Bay's mediocre play as of late, and the home advantage, this seems fair -- but let's dig into how these teams have fared this season to paint a better picture of this matchup.

numberFire's power rankings have the Bills as the fourth-best team in the league, while the Bucs fall behind in the 14th spot. Buffalo touts a higher-ranked offense (3rd) than Tampa (17th), but the Bucs boast a higher-ranked defense (10th) than the Bills (17th).

Buffalo's defense has been all over the place this year. Their 17th rank going into Week 8 would have been a surprise to many in the preseason, and they managed to give up 29 points last week to the worst-ranked offensive team in the league (New England).

These struggles are a bit more understandable when you look at the injuries Buffalo has faced. Cornerback Tre'Davious White tore his Achilles in Week 4 and is out for the season, linebacker Matt Milano suffered a leg injury in Week 5 and is out for the season, Von Miller has only managed to play six snaps thus far, and defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips also find themselves on the injury report tonight.

Even still, the Bills have recorded the second-most sacks this year (25) and the second-most total takeaways. The bright spots are strong, but whether they can hold up amidst a litany of injuries is yet to be seen.

The Bucs defense has also seen bright spots this year -- they've forced the most fumbles (seven) and rank fourth in total takeaways. Plus, they've only given up more than 20 points once this season and rank sixth in fewest points allowed per game.

They are solid D on the ground, giving up only 95.8 rush yards per game (10th), but they do have a tendency to give up major air yardage -- they give up 246.7 passing yards per game (fourth-most).

This is great news for Josh Allen and his receivers. Though Allen hasn't been a stranger to problems -- he's tied for second-most interceptions (seven) and his completion rate and Adjusted QBR have been down the past few weeks -- he and the likes of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis can do some major damage tonight.

Per numberFire, Allen ranks fourth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) and seventh in NEP per drop back and Passing Success Rate. The Bills' offense ranks fifth in yards per game and has put up 37 or more points on three teams this year. Their run game has been an unreliable mess, which, in a sense, pairs nicely with this matchup given that the Bucs' D is much more dominant in the run game than the pass game.

The Bucs' offense, meanwhile, hasn't looked the same since their Week 5 bye. Before the bye, they were averaging 21 points per game. In two games since the bye, they've put up a total of 19 points. Mayfield, who shined in his first four games, has seen a hefty hit in his numbers. He ranks 12th in Passing NEP and 16th in Passing NEP per drop back among starting QBs; following Week 4, he ranked 6th and 7th, respectively, in these categories.

Chris Godwin has managed to avoid the end zone all season, and it's hard to locate a receiver not named Mike Evans who can do anything of substance. Plus, Mayfield doesn't seem to think the team has any business relying on the run game.

Mayfield is dealing with a knee injury but is expected to play in tonight's game. A win against the Bills would mean the return of the Buccaneers' (and Mayfield's) early-season offensive numbers, but the chances that Allen and his receivers go off and avoid their first loss at Highmark Stadium in nearly a year seems like the much more likely outcome for tonight.

Buccaneers vs. Bills Prop Bets

Gabe Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)

A vulnerable pass defense against Josh Allen at Highmark Stadium is a great combination for Buffalo receivers. In three games at Highmark Stadium this year, the Bills are averaging 33.3 points. Despite the moderate game total (43.5), I think the Bills are capable of going off tonight, which means targeting the best-value receiving touchdown options on the board.

Gabe Davis' +220 touchdown odds seem good value considering he boasts the team's highest end zone target share (41.2%) and second-highest red zone target share (14.7%) among active Bill players tonight.

He also leads the team in aDOT (15.8), so he is a great candidate for downfield play.

Tampa Bay has yet to give up a rush touchdown to a running back or let a tight end see the end zone, so it seems siding with the Buffalo receivers is the way to go. I think Davis is primed to reel in his fifth touchdown on the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.