Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 2/11/23

A big day of racing on Feb. 11 at Tampa Bay Downs includes 11 races with four stakes. That includes the Kentucky Derby prep race Sam F. Davis Stakes and Kentucky Oaks prep Suncoast Stakes. Post time is 12:25 p.m. ET.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races after adjusting for track, distances, and conditions).

Tampa Bay Downs Betting

According to numberFire horse racing projections, these are the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing today.

1. Uphold the Law and Sibelius, Race 8

FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1 and 9/5
Bet Now at TVG | Bet Now at FanDuel

Race 8 is the $100,000 Pelican Stakes for older horses sprinting 6 furlongs. The numberFire data calls for Willy Boi (3/1) to win ahead of the favorite, Sibelius (9/5). Uphold the Law (8/1) is also a contender to consider who has won 4-of-5 starts including his best three weeks ago with a 103 speed figure.

Willy Boi won an allowance race over this track last April which led to 3-straight wins including a Grade 3 race with a career best 113 speed figure. He's won 6-of-16 starts and was runner-up last time out in Dec. in a minor stakes as the heavy favorite going 7 furlongs.

Sibelius has won 3 of his last 5 starts including a Grade 3 in late Dec.

2. Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 1/1 and 5/2
Bet Now at TVG | Bet Now at FanDuel

Race 9 is the $100,000 Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at 1 mile and 40 yards. This is a Kentucky Oaks prep race with qualifying points awarded to the top-5 finishers (20-8-6-4-2). The numberFire algorithm picks Wonder Wheel (1/1) to win ahead of Julia Shining (5/2) and Ticker Tape Home (8/1).

Wonder Wheel is on the rail with jockey Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Mark Casse. Julia Shining breaks from the outside No. 9 post with Luis Saez riding to trainer Todd Pletcher. Wonder Wheel is a fine filly who has won 4-of-5 starts including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies from way off the pace in her last race in Nov.

Julia Shining is 2-for-2 with a Grade 2 win, and the most reliable board hitter and win contender, according to Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener.

Longshots Champagne Calling (30/1) and Fast Tracked (20/1) are ones to add underneath in exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagering for a big payoff.

3. Litigate and Dubyuhnell Race 10

FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 9/5
Bet Now at TVG | Bet Now at FanDuel

Race 10 is the $250,000 Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles. This is a Kentucky Derby prep race with qualifying points awarded to the top-5 finishers (20-8-6-4-2). The numberFire data projects Dubyuhnell (9/5) to win with Jose Ortiz riding ahead of Champions Dream (9/2).

Check out the Sam F. Davis race preview and picks in the link above including on the winner Litigate (5/1) with Luis Saez riding to trainer Todd Pletcher.