Purdue vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Big Ten Championship Game (Purdue Makes it Competitive)

Purdue vs Michigan Big Ten Championship Game Info

2022 NCAA College Football Game
Purdue Boilermakers (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
Coverage: ABC

The regular season is over and only conference championships remain before the final College Football Playoff rankings. The fifth CFP Top 25 rankings are revealed on Tuesday, Nov. 29 on ESPN.

The Big Ten Championship Game features the West division winner Purdue Boilermakers against the East champ and No. 2 Michigan Wolverines.

Purdue vs Michigan Odds & Spread

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: PUR: (+590) | MICH: (-900)
Spread: PUR: +16.5 (-104) | MICH: -16.5 (-118)
Total: 51.5 — Over: (-112) | Under: (-108)

Michigan enters this Big Ten Championship game as a big favorite on the spread (-16.5) and moneyline (-900). An upset win by Purdue returns nearly 6/1 odds, or +590. The total is currently 51.5 points, which is about a TD below a typical college football game total.

Purdue vs Michigan Prediction & Pick

Michigan put a second half beatdown on the Ohio State Buckeyes last week to win 45-23 and earn their second straight trip to the Big Ten Championship Game. The Wolverines buried Iowa 42-3 in last year's title game, and this line suggests another one-sided result. But Purdue's offense features the No. 2 pass attack in the Big Ten, and QB Aiden O'Connell averaged a league-high 284 passing yards per game throwing to the league's top receiver Charlie Jones (12 TDs, 100 YPG).

O'Connell is away from practice and campus this week handling family obligations surrounding his brother's recent death.

Michigan's defense is No. 1 in the Big Ten, but No. 4 against the pass. Michigan and Purdue faced six common opponents this season and the Wolverines went 6-0 (2-3-1 ATS), outscoring those foes by an average score of 31-15 and out-gaining them 435-273. The Boilermakers went 4-2 (3-3 ATS) vs common foes, but the average score was 28-28 and Purdue had a small yardage edge of 405-395.

Purdue's defense is average at best statistically in the Big Ten. Even with a potential letdown by Michigan following the huge win over rival Ohio State, the Wolverines will move the ball and wear down the Boilermakers in victory.

Final Score Prediction: Michigan: 34 | Purdue: 23

Purdue vs Michigan Betting Trends

- Purdue is 7-2 straight up (SU) in their last 9 games.
- Purdue is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games vs Michigan.
- Purdue is 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games.
- Michigan is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
- Michigan is 7-0 in their last 7 games vs Big Ten West opponents.
- Michigan is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games.

Purdue vs Michigan Best Bet

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Along with the favorable offense and defense stat profiles, the Wolverines also have top special teams and an elite kicker. But Purdue has the quality quarterback and attack to stay within this big number and find the back door if Michigan gets up by more than three touchdowns.

Purdue's 31-24 Nov. 12 road win at Illinois stands out in a game they won the stats against a dominant Illini defensive team that Michigan struggled with at home. You can wait to bet Purdue and potentially take +17 or more points.

Bet: Purdue +16.5 (-104) and Over 51.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.