How to Bet on Tennis - A Definitive Guide

To someone unfamiliar with tennis, it can seem like one of the most intimidating sports to bet on. Spreads and over/unders don’t work the same as they do in a typical team sport like football or basketball, and even reading the final score of a match can be confusing if you don’t know what you’re looking at.

And to someone familiar with tennis but unfamiliar with betting, getting into the gambling space can be totally confusing. What does -145 mean? Why are odds sometimes presented as fractions or decimals? What the heck is a prop bet?

Thankfully The Duel is here to help no matter what side of the aisle you’re on with tennis betting. We’ve put together a definitive tennis betting guide with everything you need to get up to speed, from understanding the odds to the betting markets, top strategies and stats to know.

Let’s get to it.

How to Read Tennis Odds (Comparing the Formats)

One of the very first requirements is that you learn to understand tennis odds before you get into betting. This is important for a few reasons, and some of them aren’t so obvious.

In addition to telling you what your payout for a potential bet will be, understanding the odds helps you tailor the size of your bet to achieve a certain payout and even identify whether you’re making a smart bet or not.

Odds displays vary on different sites, and different countries tend to use different formats. For an international sport like tennis, that makes it useful to understand how the various types of odds formats compare, and how to understand each of them.

American Odds

American odds are what you’re going to see at just about every US-based sportsbook, and even plenty in Canada and elsewhere. These odds are also maybe the most confusing, but once you have an idea of how the positive and negative odds differ, you’ll have no trouble calculating your payouts.

Underdog odds, which are also called “plus odds," are a tad simpler to identify as you’ll see them listed at something like “+200.” This number represents the amount you would stand to win if you bet $100. So if you bet $100 on a +200 line and the bet won, you would earn $200 in winnings, plus your original $100 stake back.

The odds for a favorite (or minus odds) are essentially the opposite. They represent how much you would have to wager in order to win $100 in profit. So if you have a -200 line you would have to wager $200 to earn $100 in profit (plus your original $200 stake back).

So for example, let’s say we have a matchup with the following odds:

Rafael Nadal: -120
Novak Djokovic: +120

It would take a $12 bet on Nadal to win $100 in profit (plus your original stake back), while a $100 bet on Djokovic would earn you $120 in profit).

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds, which are often used in Canada, Europe and Australia, simplify things a little bit by having the calculations for favorites and underdogs work the same way.

Decimal odds will look something like “1.80” or “2.20.” To calculate a potential payout, you multiply your stake by this decimal. Unlike American odds, though, it’s important to note that this resulting number will include your original stake. So if you wager $100 on a 1.80 line, a win will return $180 to your account, which includes $80 in profit plus your original $100 stake back.

Any number below 2.00 corresponds to negative American odds (favorites), and any number of 2.00 or above corresponds to positive American odds (underdogs). 

So converting our example above, we’d have:

Rafael Nadal: 1.83
Novak Djokovic: 2.20

This is a little simpler, as we can make the same calculation on either side when determining what the potential payouts would be. A $100 bet on Nadal returns $183 (which would be $83 in profit when subtracting the original $100 stake) and a bet on Djokovic returns $220 ($120 in profit).

Fractional Odds

Fractional odds are often used in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and they have similarities to both American and decimal odds.

Fractional odds will be presented as a fraction (surprise!), formatted something like “1/2" or “5/1.” The number on the left represents your potential winnings, while the number on the right is the amount needed to stake.

So for example at 1/2 odds you would win $1 on a $2 stake. On 5/1 odds, you would win $5 on a $1 stake. Like American odds, these payouts do not include your original wager (which would be returned as well). Let’s go back to our real-world example to paint a clearer picture.

Rafael Nadal: 5/6
Novak Djokovic: 6/5

For Nadal you would win $5 in profit on a $6 wager (plus you would get your $6 stake back), while for Djokovic you would profit $6 on a $5 wager.

Implied Probability/Break-Even Percentage

While you can get a general idea of whether a bet is over 50% to happen (a favorite) or under 50% (an underdog) from these lines, they don’t really translate to an obvious winning percentage. But a savvy bettor should understand these percentages a little better to make sure they’re maximizing profit.

Any betting line has something called an “implied probability,” which can also be thought of as a “break-even percentage.” That is to say, you need your bet to win that percentage of the time to break even over the long run.

For example, let’s take a +100 betting line. A $100 wager returns $100 in profit. In the long run, you need this bet to win 50% of the time to break even (you win $100 every time it wins and lose $100 every time it loses).

We can go further and take this to other betting lines. For a typical -110 American line, you need to win 52.4% of the time to break even.

This is important when you’re trying to find betting values. Is Iga Swiatek a good bet at -500 odds in her next match? Well that really depends on how likely you think she is to win. If you think she has a 60% chance to win, you should not bet on her, but if you think she has a 90% chance then you absolutely should. That’s because a -500 line has an implied probability or breakeven percentage of 83.3%. So if she wins less than 83.3% of the time, then a -500 bet is a loser in the long run; if she wins 90% of the time, then a -500 bet would be profitable.

The actual calculations to convert odds to implied probabilities are a little tedious, and they differ for each odds format. The easiest way is to simply use one of the many available online odds converters.

Types of Tennis Bets to Know

Moneyline

The moneyline is the simplest of all tennis bets. This is simply a wager on who will win a given match. In a close matchup the moneyline will be fairly similar for both players (something like -120 on the favorite and +110 on the underdog), meaning you’d need a fairly sizeable bet to get a huge payout on either side. But for a mismatch you can see some pretty extreme odds, which could look something like -1000 on the favorite and +600 on the underdog. This makes it hard to bet on the favorite (a $100 wager would only earn you $10 in profit), but has potential for a big payout on the underdog (a $100 wager could earn you $600 in profit).

Tennis Spreads (Games and Sets)

Tennis spread bets are a little more complicated, but they’re also very common and help even the betting playing field on those mismatches I mentioned above.

A game spread, for example, could be set at something like 5.5 (-5.5 for the favorite, +5.5 for the underdog). You’d typically see fairly close odds on either side of this bet. What this means is that the favorite needs to win by more than 5.5 games for the bet to be a winner, but if the underdog simply loses by fewer than 5.5 games, then they would be the winning side of the bet. A close matchup may only have a spread of 1.5 games, while a huge mismatch would have a much bigger number.

The same principle applies to set spreads, only instead of winning/losing by a certain number of games, you’re wagering on someone winning/losing by a certain number of sets.

Over/Under

Over/under bets in tennis are a little different than they are in other sports, where you’d typically be betting on the total number of points scored in a given game. In tennis you’ll typically be betting over or under on the total number of games or sets played in a match.

So for example, you may see a bet like Total Sets Over 2.5 (+110) vs. Total Sets Under 2.5 (-120). If the match ends in two sets, the Under would be the winner, but if it goes 3 sets then the Over would win. For this wager it doesn’t matter who wins or loses the match, only how long it goes.

Prop Bets

Prop bets are a large category that can encompass almost anything happening in a match. Essentially, though, if you’re betting on something other than the winner or the over/under, then it’s a prop bet. In tennis this could be something as simple as “Who Wins the First Set?” or “Will Rafael Nadal Win in Straight Sets?” But you can see prop bets get as crazy and unrelated to an actual result as the wild ones we see during the Super Bowl in the NFL.

Futures Bets

Futures betting is kind of what it sounds like: betting on something further in the future. In tennis this typically looks like betting on who will win entire tournaments, rather than specific matches. You can often make these bets during tournaments, but for majors they’re usually available almost year-round. Just weeks after Wimbledon wraps up you can already start making futures bets on who will Wimbledon the following year.

Live Betting

Live bets are a unique category in that they can include most of the other bet types. Sportsbooks will often allow you to bet on matches as they’re in progress. So if Novak Djokovic drops the first set but you thought he just looked unlucky and is ready to bounce back, you can take the opportunity to bet on a live moneyline with improved odds, or a live game spread.

Check out more tennis betting guides from The Duel:

Where to Bet on Tennis

In the modern sports betting world you can bet on just about any major sporting event on almost every sportsbook. So rather than being stuck betting with whoever happens to offer lines on what you’re looking for, bettors can consider other factors to pick the best sportsbook for their wagers. Here’s why that choice should be FanDuel.

Tennis Betting on FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel Sportsbook is the industry leader in the United States, and there’s a reason that over 50% of US bettors are signed up with FanDuel -- making it the most popular sportsbook in 15 of the 18 states with legal sports betting. Here’s why so many people are choosing FanDuel, especially for tennis betting.

Extensive market offerings: One of the most exciting features on FanDuel when it comes to tennis is the extensive offering of markets. It’s not just the prestigious Gran Slam events with available bets, but smaller ATP and WTA tournaments as well as Challenger, ITF and even UTR Tennis Pro Series betting markets on offer.

User-friendly interfaces: It doesn’t matter whether you do your tennis betting on your computer or through a mobile app — FanDuel gives you a great experience. The interface is easy to navigate (especially important if you’re trying to get to some of those niche betting markets like ITF matches), and it’s fast and responsive (an absolute must if you want to live bet).

Competitive odds: FanDuel clearly takes some pride in offering competitive odds in tennis markets, which makes sure that bettors are getting as much value as possible. You’re not always going to find them offering the market’s best odds on both sides of a given bet, but they’ll always be competitive with the other leading sportsbooks.

Promos and odds boosts: Some sportsbooks will try to get you in the door with a nice sign-up offer then totally stop offering anything once you’re there. Others give some decent boosts to existing users but don’t offer much in the way of a sign-up bonus. FanDuel does both. There’s always a lucrative sign-up offer available for new users, but every single day you’ll also find great promotions, bonuses and odds boosts for existing users.

Reliable customer support: You always hope to never need to use customer support, but it’s great to know that you have the option if you need it. FanDuel’s support team is available through live chat, email or telephone, meaning you can choose whatever is most convenient for you. The support team is always quick to respond, meaning you won’t be left in the dark wondering if anyone will address your issues.

Best Tennis Betting Promo

Remember what I said about FanDuel always offering a great sign-up bonus? You can click on the link below to get the exclusive promotion they’re currently offering for The Duel readers, which gives you a great bonus:

Stats to Know for Tennis Handicapping

Record Splits (Court Surface, Head-to-Head)

Anyone who has even casually followed tennis for the last couple decades has seen the way that court surface can be a total X-factor in a matchup, as evidenced over and over again in the Nadal-Federer rivalry.

Looking at players’ past performances on certain surfaces (grass, clay, hardcourt) can give you a better insight into how they perform in an upcoming tournament than just looking at their overall record. Someone in poor form who just happens to struggle on clay may be the perfect pick to bounce back at an upcoming tournament being played on grass.

Similarly, head-to-head records can be interesting ways to find players who may be ready to over or underperform compared to their usual expectations. Some players may struggle or excel against opponents with specific styles, for example having trouble with aggressive opponents or thriving against those who tend to play it safe. It’s important not to read too much into a small sample (going 2-0 against someone may just be a bit of a fluke), but it’s useful information to include in your analysis.

Serve and Return Stats

There are a few key stats that you can break out for both serves and returns, which can really help you get a feel for a given player’s style and strengths.

First serve/return points won: Players tend to be most aggressive on their first service, since they’ve got another shot at it if they commit a fault. Points won on a first serve (or returning a first serve) can highlight players who perform particularly well in aggressive situations, or when defending aggressive serves.

Second serve/return points won: Somewhat the opposite of a first serve, second serves tend to be more cautious, as a point will be lost with another fault on these ones. Second serve points showcase players who can still hit precise or powerful shots on their second serve, while second serve return stats can showcase players who are capable of taking advantage of more cautious serves.

Break points saved/converted: Break points are something of a “clutch” stat, highlighting how often a player manages to avoid being “broken” (losing a game when they have the serve) or how often a player manages to score a break point when the opportunity arises.

Tiebreak Records

Tiebreaks are a crucial part of most tennis matches. They can make or break a close contest, they can extend matches into long marathon sessions, or they can be avoided altogether if someone is turning in a decisive win. These mini-games, played to at least seven points (win by two), come up when a set reaches a 6-6 score.

You can get some interesting information just looking at someone’s tiebreak win-loss record, which shows how often a player wins or loses a tiebreak (duh). You can look at this for a current season or even a player’s career. Generally you’d expect this not to differ too much from someone’s overall game win-loss record, but finding discrepancies can either suggest that someone performs differently in the clutch, or possibly that they’re due for some regression and that a recent run has been something of a fluke.

The Top 3 Strategies for Tennis Betting Success

Now that you understand how to read the odds, what types of bets are available and what stats matter, let’s tie it all together with some of the top strategies you can employ.

Bet on Value, Not Just the Favorite

One of the most common mistakes a beginner bettor makes is just wanting to bet on who they think will win a match without considering the odds. "Bet on the person who will win" sounds like a good idea in theory, but it really falls apart when you consider the fact that we can't know who will win. Even the best bettors in the world can't predict winners every time.

The key strategy, then, is to consider the betting odds and what they represent. If you were getting both players at +100 odds (meaning you need them to win 50% of the time to break even), then sure, pick the winner. But if someone has -200 odds, how do you determine if they're a value? You can convert to implied probability like we talked about above. At -200 you need them to win two-thirds of the time to break even.

So sure, you may think that player is going to win, but whether they're a good bet or not doesn't come down to whether they are likely to win. Instead it comes down to whether they win more or less than two-thirds of the time. If you think they win 75% of the time, for example, that makes them a good bet.

And it works just the same for an underdog. You may think they'll probably lose, but you have to look at their odds and figure out how likely that "probably" is. If you give someone a tiny 10% chance of winning the match but they pay out at 20-to-1 (only need to win 4.8% of the time to break even), then you're getting great value and should probably make that bet, even though you think it will lose 90% of the time.

Master the Over/Under

As outlined above, the over/under in tennis is a unique beast. Most sports play for a set amount of time, and the total points scored in the game make up an over/under. In tennis it's all about how long the match goes.

Play style stats can give you some really good insight into over/under bets. Do you have an aggressive favorite who wins a ton of points on their first serves playing someone who struggles to return first serves? Well that could be an interesting situation to look at a potential under bet. But if your favorite tends to play more conservatively and your underdog is someone who struggles against aggressive opponents but can hold their own otherwise, then you may have the makings of an over.

This, of course, will require deep research into both players' styles, and especially how they play on a specific court type. But getting really narrow and mastering your knowledge of a specific market like over/unders can help you become a specialist.

Fade the Flukes

Sports are a lot more random than people give them credit for, and that's an edge that savvy bettors can exploit.

This is my favorite strategy, and it involves looking for areas where players have exceptionally strong or weak results over a small sample size in a stat that could simply be influenced by randomness.

Maybe someone is on an absolute heater, ripping off tons of wins, but they've also converted break points at a ridiculous rate on that run. Maybe they actually are more clutch than the average player, but chances are that over the long run they'll start playing a bit more like they usually do. The general public may be so enamored by the win streak, however, that the betting lines get totally inflated. In this spot it could be good to "fade" (or bet against) the hot streak.

On the other side maybe you have someone who typically dominates, but they're on a cold streak. In these recent losses, however, they haven't won a single tiebreak. It's probably more likely that it's just an unlucky streak on tiebreaks, rather than the player suddenly developing a total inability to win them. But these losses could mean that people are betting against this player, opening the door for you to pick up some value by betting on them to bounce back.

What You Need to Know About Bankroll Management When Betting on Tennis

Bankroll management is a key piece of successful betting in any sport, and that includes tennis. Both in terms of gaming responsibly and in terms of maximizing your winnings, proper bankroll management is absolutely crucial to beginner and expert bettors alike.

Setting a Bankroll

Your bankroll is your budget for betting. The cardinal rule is to never bet more than you have allocated here, and certainly never more than you can afford to lose. You don’t need to keep this whole amount deposited on a sportsbook at all times, but make sure you know what your number is and that you hold yourself to it honestly.

Decide a “Unit” Size

You’ll often hear bettors talking terms of “units.” This allows people with different bankrolls to compare bets. A typical designation is that a “unit” is 1% of your bankroll. So if you have a $1,000 bankroll budgeted, then your tennis betting unit size is $10.

Bet Sizing

A typical bet size to use is 1 unit, which as we looked at above is usually 1% of your bankroll. A really confident bet may get as high as something like 2 to 5 units, but you rarely want to exceed that. Even the most profitable tennis bettors go on long losing streaks, and if they were betting 15 units at a time, they’d eventually go broke because of one of these streaks. Another factor to keep in mind with unit sizing is how likely your bet is to hit. If you’re betting on major underdogs you’ll want to keep your bets smaller (maybe 0.5 units on a +500 bet, for example), while you can feel okay going a bit bigger when betting heavy favourites (maybe 3 units on a -400 favorite).

These may seem like simple factors, but no matter what your tennis betting strategy may be, you’ll be shooting yourself in the foot if you don’t practice proper bankroll management.

Responsible Gaming for Tennis Betting

Tennis betting can certainly make the sport more exciting to watch, and it’s always fun to sweat a potential big payday. But it’s crucial to approach these aspects with a responsible mindset, and you should view tennis betting as a form of entertainment rather than a reliable way to make money (if you were a pro bettor who could make a living off this would you really be reading an article called “How to Bet on Tennis?”). Here are a few key principles to keep your tennis betting responsible.

Set a budget (and stick to it): The golden rule is to only bet money that you can afford to lose. That way, no matter what happens, you know things will be okay. Set a clear budget for tennis betting and stick to it. From there you can go further with bankroll management and determine how much you can safely bet on specific tournaments, but the absolute unbreakable rule to establish first is that you should never bet money that you can’t afford to lose.

Don’t chase losses: Losses will happen in betting. No matter what. Even the best tennis bettors in the world can (and do) go on long losing streaks. The important thing to remember is that you have to resist the temptation to start placing larger bets to try to get back to even. This is how huge losses can pile up, and it’s probably the most common way that people end up breaking the golden rule above of not betting what you can’t afford to lose.

Understand the odds: This may sound simple, but emotion can override logic. Someone being a huge favorite does not mean they’re guaranteed to win. You may feel like someone is a lock, but nobody in sports is ever a true guarantee until the match is over. This is another trap people fall into that leads to betting more than they can afford -- they’ll look at a -500 favorite whom they love and place a bet as if there was no way they could possibly lose.

Seek help if you need it: Recognizing when you need help is a crucial step toward responsible gaming, and reaching out for that help is the best thing you can do for yourself. The Duel has compiled this page of responsible gaming hotlines for each state.

Tennis Betting FAQ