Heat vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Finals Game 5 (Can Denver Finally Close Out Miami?)

The 2022-23 NBA Finals continue on Monday, June 12 with Game 5 of the exciting Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets series.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 Info

• Series: DEN leads 3-1
• Date: Monday, June 12, 2023
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
• Coverage: ABC

The Nuggets have a chance to win the NBA Finals after taking the 3-1 series lead with Game 4's 109-95 victory over the Heat. Denver's supporting cast stepped up this time as Aaron Gordon dropped a game-high 27 points on 73.3% shooting while Bruce Brown contributed with a 21-point effort in 30 minutes off the bench.

Heat vs Nuggets Odds & Spread

• All NBA betting lines, odds, and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: MIA: (+330) | DEN: (-420)
• Spread: MIA: +9.5 (-110) | DEN: -9.5 (-110)
• Total: 208 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Nuggets enter this contest as clear home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 8:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 208 points with both sides available at -110 odds.

Heat vs Nuggets Betting Trends

• Miami is 1-9 straight up (SU) in its last 10 games against Denver.
• Denver is 11-1 SU In its last 12 home games.
• Miami is 3-8 against the spread (ATS) in its last 11 games against the Western Conference.
• Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against the Southwest Division.
• The total has hit the Under in seven of Miami's last eight games.
• The total has hit the Over in five of Denver's last six home games against Miami.

Heat vs Nuggets Prediction & Pick

The longer this series goes, the harder it is to have faith in the Heat. The Nuggets have smothered them defensively, resulting in the Heat scoring fewer than 100 in three of the four matchups thus far. It doesn't help that Miami hasn't made good decisions with the ball, proven by Erik Spoelstra's team only shooting 32.0% from the three-point line while turning the ball over 15 times in Game 4.

Check out more NBA Playoffs content from The Duel:

The series now returns to Denver where the Nuggets are 9-1 SU in the playoffs and 43-8 SU overall this season. Yes, the Heat did win at Ball Arena in Game 2, but the victory only came by three points while also seeing Miami trailing by eight heading into the fourth quarter.

While the Heat should be proud of their run, the Nuggets have all the tools to close things out. Even when Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have relatively quiet performances, players like Gordon, Brown, and Michael Porter Jr. can step up. A deep lineup like that has given Miami issues all series and I don't see that changing.

Look for Jokic & Co. to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy this Monday night.

Final Score Prediction: Nuggets: 110 | Heat: 98

Heat vs Nuggets Best Bet

The Nuggets likely wouldn't be up 3-1 had it not been for Jamal Murray's impressive playmaking. The talented Canadian guard is averaging 10.5 APG in the NBA Finals, finishing with no fewer than 10 helpers in each contest. In other words, I don't see Murray having any issues hitting the Over on his 8.5-assist total in Game 5.

As long as his Denver teammates continue shooting the ball accurately, Murray will keep racking up assists with ease.

Bet: Jamal Murray — Assists: Over 8.5 (-111)

Watch FanDuel TV’s new NBA show “Run It Back” with Shams Charania, Michelle Beadle, Chandler Parsons, and Eddie Gonzalez Monday-Wednesday at 10 ET on FanDuel TV, the FanDuel Youtube page, or download the podcast here: fanduel.com/podcasts.

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.