Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 285 (Can Barberena Pull Off an Upset?)

Nelson vs Barberena Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 285 — Main Card Welterweight Bout
Gunnar "Gunni" Nelson (18-5-1, 4 KOs) vs. Bryan "Bam Bam" Barberena (18-9-0, 11 KOs)
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Fight Time: This will be one of the fights on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Venue: O2 Arena — London, England, United Kingdom
Coverage: ESPN, PPV

Nelson vs Barberena Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 286 odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline:
- Gunnar Nelson: (-430)
- Bryan Barberena: (+300)

Method of Victory:
- Nelson by KO/TKO: (+950)
- Nelson by Points: (+220)
- Nelson by Submission: (+120)
- Barberena by KO/TKO: (+550)
- Barberena by Points: (+950)
- Barberena by Submission: (+2200)

Nelson vs Barberena Prediction

Gunnar Nelson returned from a two-and-a-half-year absence from the UFC last March and defeated Takashi Soto by unanimous decision. The 34-year-old didn't miss a beat as he overcame early rust to control the final few rounds. Up next is Bryan Barberena, who is taking the place of Daniel Rodriguez.

Barberena saw his three-match winning streak come to an end with a submission loss to Rafael Dos Anjos in December. The Arizona native is known for his brawling nature and ability to keep up with his foe with insane cardio. He'll have to be on top of his game to beat Nelson on Saturday, though.

These fighters differ in one way and that is in their style. Barberena thrives in upright battles, while Nelson is at his best when on the ground. Nelson averages a dependable 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and should be able to take down Barberena, whose takedown defense rate is only 54%.

I'll side with Gunnar Nelson to come out on top.

Nelson vs Barberena Best Bet

I already touched on this a little bit, but Nelson is an outstanding wrestler. The Iceland native is a dazzling 12-0 in fights decided by submission and seven of those wins have come at the UFC level. His takedown accuracy rate checks in at 60% and his takedown defense rate checks in at 66%.

To drive the point home, Nelson is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has a unique skill set that not many other UFC fighters can match, including Barberena. Barberena has suffered 26 takedowns over his last six fights and doesn't have the ground game to take away Nelson's strength.

Bet: Gunnar Nelson by Submission (+120)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

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