Tennessee State vs Morehead State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for OVC Tournament Championship

The OVC champion will be crowned on Saturday when the No. 1 seed Tennessee State Tigers (22-9, 15-5 OVC) and the No. 2 Morehead State Eagles (20-12, 15-5 OVC) face off at 9 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 7, 2026
• Game time: 9 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Evansville, Indiana
• Arena: Ford Center

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Tennessee State win (69.3%)

Take a look at the betting insights and trends below before placing a bet on Saturday's Tennessee State-Morehead State spread (Tennessee State -4.5) or over/under (145.5 points).

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Tennessee State vs. Morehead State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Tennessee State has won 17 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 11 times.
• Morehead State has won 18 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 11 times.
• Tennessee State (4-6) covers a lower percentage of games when it is favored by 4.5 points or more this season (40%) than Morehead State (6-6) does as a 4.5+-point underdog (50%).
• The Tigers have done a better job covering the spread on the road (10-6-0) than they have in home games (5-5-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Eagles have a better winning percentage at home (.700, 7-3-0 record) than away (.588, 10-7-0).
• Tennessee State is 12-9-0 against the spread in conference play this season.
• Morehead State's OVC record against the spread is 16-5-0.

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Tennessee State has come away with 12 wins in the 16 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• The Tigers have a win-loss record of 7-1 when favored by -220 or better by oddsmakers this year.
• Morehead State has gone 8-10 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 44.4% of those games).
• The Eagles have a record of 3-8 when playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +180 or longer (27.3%).
• Tennessee State has an implied victory probability of 68.8% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Tennessee State vs. Morehead State Head-to-Head Comparison

• At 78.1 points scored per game and 73.3 points conceded last year, Tennessee State was 73rd in college basketball on offense and 219th defensively.
• Tennessee State was the sixth-best team in the nation in rebounds per game (37.5) and ranked 164th in rebounds allowed (30.9) last year.
• Tennessee State was 203rd in the nation in assists (13.3 per game) last year.
• Last season, Tennessee State was second-worst in college basketball in turnovers committed (14.5 per game) and 93rd in turnovers forced (12.2).
• Morehead State found it difficult to produce points last season, ranking 14th-worst in college basketball with 66.1 points per game. It played better on defense, ranking 74th by giving up 68.7 points per contest.
• Last season Morehead State averaged 33.3 rebounds per game (96th-ranked in college basketball) and allowed 29.5 rebounds per contest (70th-ranked).
• Morehead State ranked 319th in the country with 11.5 dimes per contest.
• Morehead State ranked 135th in the nation at 10.7 turnovers per game, but it forced 9.5 turnovers per game, which ranked 25th-worst in college basketball.

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