Super Bowl Odds Update: Frontrunners Holding Sturdy

With a dozen weeks of action now complete, we are officially two-thirds of the way through the NFL regular season.

As with any year, identifying Super Bowl contenders early on can lead to some of the best barbershop conversations. Still, I think everyone across the country can agree that teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys are loaded with talent.

Those aforementioned six sides all show odds 10-to-1 or shorter within FanDuel Sportsbook's big game market. Right now, the remaining 26 NFL franchises each yield odds +1600 or longer. Simply, I believe it is highly likely that our next Super Bowl winner comes from one of those top teams.

Of course, we should always leave room for the unexpected. After that top tier, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions are also legitimate threats to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Vegas next February. Behind those two, can teams like the Buffalo Bills or Seattle Seahawks heat up over these next six games?

Transparently, the Thanksgiving week of football did not provide much Super Bowl odds movement among the leaders at FanDuel Sportsbook. However, the middle of the pack saw a good deal of shuffling.

With Thursday Night Football between Seattle and Dallas looming closely, let's survey recent movers in this market.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

*Denotes Super Bowl LVII participant

Notable Jumps

Denver Broncos

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +10000
Last Week: +13000

After the first six games of 2023, it appeared the Denver Broncos were headed to a similar destination as last season: the AFC West cellar. Despite coming out of the gate with a 1-5 record straight up (SU), Denver has now snapped off five consecutive victories to get to 6-5. Of course, that is the longest current winning streak in the NFL.

Seemingly, head coach Sean Payton has done well to bring out the Russell Wilson that we are all more accustomed to seeing; undoubtedly, 2022-23 was Wilson's worst NFL season to date. A year ago, Russ had a tough time cooking under Nathaniel Hackett, displaying career lows in completion percentage (60.5%) and adjusted yards per attempt (6.9).

Fast-forward to now, and Wilson has his completion clip back at a precise 68.3%. Over the Broncos' five-game heater, he has been especially efficient; in that split, Wilson shows nine total touchdowns with no interceptions.

In the current campaign, Denver's defense has left much to be desired, allowing 25.5 PPG (29th). Still, that clip has also improved over the past month. In regards to their winning streak, the Broncos have surrendered only 16.0 PPG. Does that mean they are closer to putting it all together in the Mile High than originally thought?

Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +10000
Last Week: +15000

Like Denver above, the Green Bay Packers have certainly produced mixed results so far in 2023. After beginning the season 2-1 SU, the Pack subsequently dropped their next four games.

However, Green Bay has won three of four contests since the frustrating losing streak. They are still under .500 at 5-6 overall, but perhaps they gain ground through a softer-than-usual NFC North. Naturally, the Packers are riding high after outlasting rival Detroit on Thanksgiving -- talk about a holiday tradition.

On the heels of defeating talented sides like the Lions and Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay sits on the bubble of the NFC playoff picture. If the season ended today, the Pack would be the first team out, currently looking up at a familiar foe: the Minnesota Vikings (6-6). With Minnesota on bye in Week 13, Green Bay will be desperate to make up divisional ground.

However, the Packers next host the Chiefs, who are a 6.5-point road favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook). Quarterback Jordan Love will have his hands full with a stingy Kansas City defense, one that is allowing only 290 total yards per game. From there, reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes always deserves due respect -- even if his receivers have not been as sure-handed in 2023.

Steep Drops

Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +10000
Last Week: +6500

Although trending in opposite directions at different paces, the Broncos, Packers and Chargers are priced identically in the Super Bowl LVIII market at FanDuel Sportsbook: 100-to-1 odds. As alluded to, Denver and Green Bay are both riding winning streaks, while the Bolts have squandered their past three contests. Further out, LAC has lost five of their last seven games.

At 4-7 SU, Los Angeles' AFC franchise has been among the most frustrating to watch. Despite a cacophony of talented players on offense and defense, things never seem to go in favor of the Bolts. Of their seven losses in 2023, five were suffered by a field goal or less. Now facing an uphill battle, can superstars like Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Khalil Mack rally the powder blue?

Entering this campaign, the Chargers showed a label of +2100 to win the Super Bowl. Last week, they still yielded a moderate price of 65-to-1 odds. As it is now, LAC has fallen into the bottom half of the league. However, there is a chance they can "bolt up" over their next three games. On the horizon, Los Angeles faces the New England Patriots (2-9), Broncos (6-5), and Las Vegas Raiders (5-7).

They have no choice but to turn on the juice this weekend in New England. If they hope to climb out of the AFC West's basement, LAC will need a supercharge their play. With only six games left in the regular season, the time is now for Los Angeles. Surely, head coach Brandon Staley must know this.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +23000
Last Week: +12000

Even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers compete in the NFC South, which is debatably the NFL's worst division in 2023, their playoff aspirations have taken a dent in recent weeks.

In head coach Todd Bowles' second year at the helm, the Buccaneers came out strong. After four games, Tampa Bay stood at 3-1, including a valuable win over the division rival New Orleans Saints. Since then, the Bucs have been defeated in six of their last seven efforts.

Not many expected a strong campaign from Tampa this season. Coming into 2023, the Bucs held a +7500 price tag at FanDuel Sportsbook to go all the way. After five games, their Super Bowl label shortened to +6000 odds. Of course, as you see now, Tampa Bay shows a 230-to-1 listing -- so you're telling me there's a chance?

Notably, quarterback Baker Mayfield (ankle) exited last week's loss versus the Indianapolis Colts before returning shortly after. However, the former Heisman Trophy winner was unable to get his team in the winner's circle despite tossing two scores on a bad leg. Regardless, it highlights a bigger issue for Tampa; outside of future Hall of Fame receiver Mike Evans (9 TD in 2023), the Bucs have a tough time scoring points.

Tampa is producing fewer than 20.0 PPG right now (19.3), which leaves them bottom third in that category. On defense, the Bucs still showcase many key members from their Super Bowl LV squad -- guys like Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. are flying around as per usual. However, something is obviously missing from the winning formula. Tampa is now looking up at both the Saints and Atlanta Falcons in the division.

Honorable Mentions

Trending Up

• San Francisco 49ers +430

Falling Down

• Cincinnati Bengals +31000

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.