Spurs vs. Thunder Western Finals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 28

Spurs vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Thursday, May 28, 2026
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Frost Bank Center -- San Antonio, Texas
• Coverage: NBC/Peacock

The San Antonio Spurs are slight 3.5-point favorites in a decisive Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Frost Bank Center on Thursday, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock. The Thunder lead the series 3-2. The matchup's over/under is 218.5.

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Spurs win (56.6%)

Spurs vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Spurs are 43-34-4 against the spread this season.
• In the Thunder's 82 games this season, they have 39 wins against the spread.
• This season, 36 of the Spurs' games have gone over the point total.
• Thunder games this season have gone over the total in 45 of 82 opportunities (54.9%).
• San Antonio has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than road games. It has covered 19 times in 40 games at home, and it has covered 24 times in 42 games on the road.
• The Spurs have exceeded the over/under more often when playing at home, hitting the over in 18 of 40 home matchups (45%). In road games, they have hit the over in 18 of 42 games (42.9%).
• Oklahoma City's winning percentage against the spread at home is .452 (19-23-0). Away, it is .500 (20-19-1).
• In 2025-26 a lower percentage of the Thunder's games have finished above the over/under at home (52.4%, 22 of 42) than on the road (57.5%, 23 of 40).

Spurs Leaders

• Victor Wembanyama is averaging 25 points, 11.5 boards and 3.1 assists. At the other end, he averages 1 steal and 3.1 blocked shots (first in NBA).
• De'Aaron Fox's numbers on the season are 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game, shooting 48.6% from the field and 33.2% from downtown, with an average of 1.8 made treys.
• Stephon Castle averages 16.6 points, 5.3 boards and 7.4 assists.
• Keldon Johnson is averaging 13.2 points, 1.4 assists and 5.4 rebounds.
• Julian Champagnie is averaging 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Defensively, he averages 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.1 points for the Thunder, plus 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists.
• The Thunder are receiving 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game from Chet Holmgren.
• The Thunder are getting 8.6 points, 3.1 boards and 2.6 assists per game from Cason Wallace.
• Per game, Ajay Mitchell gives the Thunder 13.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists, plus 1.2 steals and 0.3 blocks.
• Per game, Isaiah Hartenstein provides the Thunder 9.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists, plus 1 steal and 0.8 blocks.

For more NBA betting insights, check out FanDuel Research's NBA home page.

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