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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Vikings at Rams)

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Vikings at Rams)

Thursday's matchup features a pair of teams seemingly headed in opposite directions, but it should still be a fun one for fantasy purposes. The Minnesota Vikings are 2.5-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Rams, and the game holds a fairly high 48.5 over/under, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Justin Jefferson ($16,000) continues to show he's one of the NFL's best wideouts, averaging 3.07 yards per route run with a 33.3% target share and 44.6% air yards share. Surprisingly, he's cracked 100 receiving yards just once through six games, but he's still averaging 17.2 FanDuel points per game and scored a touchdown in all but one contest. With his talent and usage, it's only a matter of time before he starts churning out more spike weeks, and this is an inviting spot versus numberFire's 23rd-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense.

Outside of Jefferson, Kyren Williams ($15,500) is the other obvious MVP play. Williams rarely leaves the field (85.8% snap rate) and is averaging 24.3 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets). When factoring in both red zone carries and targets, he has an elite 56.9% RZ opportunity share, too. This is a tough matchup versus a team that's second in adjusted rush defense and has given up the ninth-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs -- but his fantastic role could absolutely overcome that.

Williams' counterpart, Aaron Jones ($12,000), could also excel on Thursday. Jones should have an easier time getting going versus the Rams' 28th-ranked adjusted rush defense, and his role is also excellent, averaging 24.4 adjusted opportunities with a 51.2% RZ opportunity share across his five full games. Considering Jones hasn't flashed as much in the box score as Williams, he might not see as high an MVP roster percentage, yet his rushing plus receiving yards prop line (100.5) is higher than Kyren's (92.5).

Aaron Jones - Rushing + Receiving Yds

Aaron Jones Over
@
Aaron Jones Under
Oct 25 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Sam Darnold ($14,000) has the slate's top score in our NFL DFS projections, and he's recorded 20+ FanDuel points in three of six starts. Darnold ranks fifth in passing yards per attempt (8.4) this season, and he isn't a total zero as a runner, too, with a pair of games with 30+ rushing yards. While I'm more inclined to roll with one of previous three players at MVP, Darnold is certainly in play, and this is hardly the matchup to shy away from.

On the other hand, Matthew Stafford ($13,500) is a tougher sell, but his middling fantasy results likely means he won't get much MVP love, and plugging in a low-rostered QB at the multiplier slot is always intriguing. While he's up against a Vikings defense that's numberFire's third-best adjusted pass D and ranks inside the top 10 in pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats, this is still a bend-don't-break unit that's allowed the third-most passing yards per game (260.3). The last time Stafford had a full game with Cooper Kupp ($12,000), he threw for 300 yards, and this game's solid total opens the door for a possible shootout.

And speaking of Kupp, he will indeed be active tonight with no injury designation, and it might be his last time wearing a Rams uniform amid recent trade rumors. As a trade candidate, it's fair to wonder whether Los Angeles will be cautious in Kupp's return from injury, but would it also surprise anyone if he went berserk one last time for the only organization he's ever played for? He was peppered for an absurd 21 targets (43.8% share) in Week 1, and Minnesota's defense has coughed up the most FanDuel points per game to WRs despite their credentials. He's a risky MVP candidate but could be worth taking a few shots at when making multiple lineups.

Flex Targets

Jordan Addison ($11,000) -- Since returning from injury in Week 4, Addison is second behind Justin Jefferson in route rate (83.0%), target share (19.8%), and air yards share (35.1%). He's been held to single-digit points in two of those three games but popped for 21.4 FanDuel points in the other.

Tutu Atwell ($10,500), Demarcus Robinson ($9,000), and Tyler Johnson ($7,500) -- With Kupp back, our projections peg Atwell for 6.1 targets, Robinson for 4.6 targets, and Johnson for 5.3 targets. But the truth is it's hard to predict how any of this will go depending on how much Kupp plays (and maybe even Puka Nacua).

Ty Chandler ($9,500) -- With Aaron Jones back healthy in Week 7, Chandler was an afterthought with an 11.5% snap rate and a mere 2 carries. He needs an injury from Jones to have any standalone value.

Minnesota Vikings D/ST ($9,500) -- The Vikings' defense has been a top-notch fantasy unit this year, scoring double-digit FanDuel points in five of six weeks. The immobile Stafford has a 7.9% sack rate and has thrown just 3 touchdowns to 4 interceptions this year.

T.J. Hockenson ($9,000) -- Hockenson is questionable and has a chance at making his 2024 debut. Expectations should probably be in check if he plays, but the Rams have given up the second-most FanDuel points per game to TEs, so he might be worth the ol' dart throw.

Will Reichard ($8,500) and Joshua Karty ($8,500) -- Reichard has been perfect for Minnesota, which has led to double-digit FanDuel points in four of six games. Karty is the less sure bet considering the struggles of this offense, but perhaps Kupp gives it the jolt it needs.

Colby Parkinson ($8,000) -- Parkinson saw his route rate plummet to 45.8% in Week 7 after being at 75% or better in every other game. Given that he's been held to single-digit FanDuel points every week as is, he might be someone to fade or have minimal exposure to.

Jalen Nailor ($7,500) -- Nailor posted a 71.4% route rate and 19.2% target share last week. He's a possible value play as Minnesota's No. 3 wideout.

Puka Nacua ($5,000) -- Despite getting just two limited practices in this week, Nacua is listed as questionable, and there's actually some optimism that he could play tonight. Given he was just designated to return from injured reserve this week, we should remain skeptical, but if he's in fact active, even a scaled-back Puka could be an insane value at minimum salary.


Get ready for Thursday Night Football! All customers get one No Sweat Token for a Same Game Parlay on the Vikings vs Rams game happening October 24th. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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