PFL World Tournament Best Bets and Predictions: Edwards vs. Silveira

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, mixed martial arts might be for you.

While most know the sport through the world-famous UFC promotion, a competitor is giving the juggernaut a run for their money -- quite literally. Boasting improved fighter pay, Professional Fight League, or "PFL", brings many of the top veterans and experienced fighters to battle in a different format.

In each weight class, the regular season decides seeding for a playoff bracket as fighters will battle throughout 2025 for a $500,000 grand prize.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets for Friday's event, which features first-round action between lightweights and middleweights.

PFL Semifinals Betting Picks for June 27, 2025

Valentin Moldavsky vs. Alexandr Romanov

Romanov to Win (+142)

This seems insane to me -- even if nothing is a given with Alexandr Romanov.

"King Kong" competed in UFC's heavyweight rankings as recently as June 2024, so I thought conventional wisdom would be that he could walk though PFL's lighter level of competition. However, he sits as an underdog to Valentin Moldavsky in heavyweight's final four.

Moldavsky, a former Bellator heavyweight champ, is certainly the better conditioned fighter, but his results have petered out since joining PFL. He lost a tight decision to Linton Vassell's shaky takedown defense before getting an incredibly generous result against Sergey Bilostenniy. Control didn't come easily in either bout.

Romanov's a credential ground fighter that has 30 pounds on Moldavsky should this fight hit the canvas, and the Moldovan's striking was always underrated as he exited UFC with a +1.65 striking success rate (SSR).

Laying chalk with Romanov's iffy cardio can be unnerving, but I'll happily take this shot when he's the underdog.

Sergio Pettis vs. Raufeon Stots

Pettis to Win (+210)
Pettis by Points (+330)

This is a showcase bout outside of tournament action between two Bellator alumni. Surprisingly, these former champions with the extinct promotion never crossed paths there.

Sergio Pettis and Raufeon Stots should both be ones to watch in next year's 135-pound tournament, especially after this year's finalists are rather unproven. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised the former is such a distant underdog here.

I think there's some mental math that Patchy Mix snatched Pettis' neck via rear-naked choke in November 2023, and that was the exact result of Stots' last victory over Marcos Breno (0-1 PFL). However, the 36-year-old veteran has only 5 wins via submission in 23 pro fights -- just one more than Pettis (4).

"The Phenom" let Mix take his back, but if Stots can't get to that position, I think Pettis can use his speed, striking, and takedown recovery to outpoint Stots on the cards far more often than this line suggests. Pettis' win over Patricio Pitbull is easily the best triumph on either's resumé.

12 of Pettis' 14 wins between Bellator and UFC have come via decision, and he's really more of a 125-pounder. A sprinkle on the decision prop is a low-risk way to take this angle.

Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Simeon Powell

Powell by KO/TKO (+250)

"Shoeface" is one of PFL's most well-known staples, but I think the light heavyweight division has moved past him.

Antonio Carlos Junior was among the first to ditch getting buried in UFC's 185-pound division for a shot at PFL's 205-pound grand prize and won it in 2021. He withdrew due to injury in 2022 and, frankly, hasn't looked the same since returning in 2024. Last year, he lost to Alex Polizzi to miss the playoffs, and in his 2025 debut, he barely eeked out a win over Karl Moore (4-1 Bellator) via split decision.

At 35 years old, I just wonder if the lack of true light heavyweight size has finally caught up to a one-dimensional style. 12 of his 17 pro wins have come via submission, which makes it problematic that Simeon Powell has never tapped.

Training with elite MMA fighters at Great Britain Top Team, the 26-year-old Englishman is an athletic force that has stopped four of his last six foes, including defending Karl Albrektsson's takedowns and landing vicious clinch strikes to score a (T)KO in 2025's first round.

If Carlos Junior can't get him down, he's in huge trouble. The Brazilian has been stopped just once in 23 pro fights, but Father Time comes for us all.

Dalton Rosta vs. Aaron Jeffery

Jeffery in Round 3 or by Points (+190)

This line shifted from Aaron Jeffery as a -132 favorite on Tuesday to Dalton Rosta now sitting -158 on Friday.

It seems like a wild reaction in a fight that's -310 to go its full distance as both of these guys haven't been stopped as pros since the start of 2020.

In their first matchup with Bellator in August 2023, Jeffery stuffed Rosta's takedowns to steal two rounds to one. I have a hard time not seeing that dynamic play out again as both still sit in what I'd consider a fighter's prime.

Rosta's win over Sadibou Sy was one I saw coming when Sy, age 38, has lost on the ground in PFL before. Jeffery's two UFC-affiliated bouts came against top-10 grapplers, Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho, and he stuffed a decent four of eight takedowns. Rosta is still a step down in competition.

If "Hercules" carries too much confidence he'll take down and dominate Jeffery as he did Sy, he could face endurance issues late in this fight. That's why I'm adding Round 3 to Jeffery's decision prop with this market, which largely encompasses the Canadian's win equity. Jeffery has just one win before Round 3 since the COVID break.

Phil Davis vs. Sullivan Cauley

Cauley to Win (+315)

It truly only takes one shot for Phil Davis.

"Mr. Wonderful" was able to turn back the clock and stop former PFL 205-pound champ Rob Wilkinson in the first round, but the 40-year-old's betting line for an encore is pretty crazy. Wilkinson was winning nearly every second of the fight before a right hook turned it.

I just don't think that 29-year-old Sullivan Cauley will go down to a shot like that. Cauley, a wrestler, went 6-1 in Bellator with one mistake leading to a loss via submission. Davis' last true sub came in September 2015.

Cauley stomped Alex Polizzi (1-2 PFL) as a sizable favorite in under two minutes, so while Davis is a step up in competition, we saw the favorite lose in Bellator to guys that can wrestle like Corey Anderson and Vadim Nemkov.

Of course, no one has ever finished Davis as a pro, but can "Sully" bank two rounds to win a decision? Does Mr. Wonderful's age catch up with him at some point? I certainly think it's closer to a pick 'em that either of those answers are "yes".

Fabian Edwards vs. Josh Silveira

Edwards by Points (-115)

Between Davis and Josh Silveira, PFL is doing their best to extend the broadcast late into the evening. Silveira hasn't been finished in 18 fights as a pro, either.

However, he's one of the card's largest underdogs for good reason. Grinding out a decision win over Mike Shipman (8-3 Bellator) was a must at this stage in his career, but Silveira's come up short in these playoff fights recently. Impa Kasanganay easily dispatched him twice, which hasn't aged particularly well given Impa's loss inside 10 minutes to Fabian Edwards.

Edwards, the brother of former UFC 170-pound champion Leon Edwards, made quite the arrival into PFL to knock out the 2023 champ with a flying knee. That was a huge change from Fabian's career trends, though. He's seen the judges' scorecards in 8 of his last 11 bouts and, like his older brother, doesn't offer up a ton of volume.

Silveira's only 32 and tough as a two-dollar steak, so a vast majority of the time, an Edwards win will come on the cards. I'd rather bet this prop than Fabian's moneyline in case "Coninha" has dragged the English favorite into a low-volume, questionable decision.

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