Olympic Basketball: Best Bets for Friday 8/9/24

The women's basketball competition at the Paris Olympics has been narrowed down to four teams. The semifinals tip off on Friday, where all four teams will compete for a trip to the Gold Medal game.

Olympic Basketball Best Bets

United States vs. Australia

Australia +17.5 (-118)

The United States and Australia will meet up on Friday at 11:30 am ET.

The USA women's team is seeking their 60th straight Olympic win and is just two victories away from their eighth straight gold medal, but I like Australia's chances to give us a competitive game on Friday.

Australia went 2-1 in group play and beat Serbia in the quarterfinals by a score of 85-67. The team features six WNBA players -- Ezi Magbebor, Alanna Smith, Stephanie Talbot, Kristy Wallace, Sami Whitcomb, and Jade Melbourne. They are coached by Sandy Brondello, the head coach of the WNBA's New York Liberty.

The States have yet to play a team with more than three WNBA players on the opposing side. Now, they'll play an Australia team that starts only WNBA players.

Magbebor will have her work cut out for her against USA's bigs, but the 2023 All-Star is averaging 13.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game for the Seattle Storm and will give Breanna Stewart and A'ja Wilson their toughest challenge yet.

Smith's 43.6% 3P% ranks second in the WNBA. The flamethrower has been a key part of the Minnesota Lynx's success this season. Talbot, Melbourne, and Whitcomb are all legit players in their own right, and the latter two combined for 33 points against Serbia.

This matchup is, essentially, the WNBA's varsity team opposite the WNBA's junior varsity team. Australia has been playing against the Team USA players all summer in the WNBA and knows what to expect from them. It doesn't hurt that they are helmed by Brondello, one of the best coaches in the WNBA who will be squaring off against two of her own Liberty players in Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.

Given the stakes of this contest and the relationship between the two teams, this could be the most exciting game of the women's basketball tournament yet. I'll back the Aussies to keep the match within 17 points.

Alanna Smith Over 12.5 Points (-106)

Smith has scored at least 12 points in three out of four Olympic Games and notched 15 and 22 points in two of those games. She's made a big impact on offense despite scoring just 18.4% of her points from behind the arc.

Australia will likely be playing from behind in this one, and given the stakes, I'm expecting the starters to dominate the usage. They play with a small unit, which gives their players an advantage in finding momentum.

The 6-foot-3 forward can dominate inside and scored 22 points in the quarterfinal game despite attempting just one three. The 43.6% three-point shooter should look to get going from downtown in a come-from-behind game scenario. If Smith is draining threes, Australia will get within striking distance, so I imagine a high shot volume for her will be a team priority.

France vs. Belgium

Emma Meesseman Over 24.5 Points (-113)

France and Belgium square off at 3:00 pm ET on Friday.

The French are favored by 4.5 points, but Belgium is home to one of the most dominant players in this tournament. Emma Meesseman is averaging 24.5 points for Belgium and has scored at least 24 points in all but one game.

The 6-foot-4 center has been an at-will scorer inside. Beyond her undeniable abilities as a scorer, there are two reasons I'm keen on targeting the over on her points prop.

She's been averaging a whopping 35 minutes per game and has played at least 37 minutes in two of her games. She's a strong candidate to play just about every minute of the game on Friday, especially given the stakes. It doesn't hurt that foul trouble hasn't been an issue.

Plus, France is a fairly small team, at least in comparison to Meeseeman's physicality. The French have four centers on their team, none of whom logged more than 19 minutes in the quarterfinal game, though they all played at least 15 minutes. Despite the depth, they are pretty meh at this position and don't have a clear preferable option to throw at Meesseman.

She's the most efficient and reliable bucket for Belgium, so I'm expecting a Meesseman takeover on Friday.

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