Oklahoma State-Texas: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Big 12 Championship Game

Oh yes, there will be orange.

Here to set the tone for upcoming championship Saturday, the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys will wrangle it out at "Jerry World" for the Big 12 title. As the first FBS kickoff (12 p.m. ET) on December 2nd, Cowboys-Longhorns will be a rodeo-style showdown that you will not want to miss.

To heighten the anticipation here, these conference foes did not meet head-to-head in the 2023 regular season. Also, Texas is in their final year of Big 12 play, as the 'Horns are notably joining the SEC in 2024-25. Simply, this will be Oklahoma State's last crack at UT for the foreseeable future.

The Cowboys enter this weekend as steep underdogs versus Texas. Still, even with traveling to Dallas, OKST will come with pride and pressure.

It is time to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Let's dive into the odds and lines for the upcoming Big 12 Championship Game, keeping emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Big 12 Championship Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline and Total

Kickoff: Saturday (Dec. 2), 12 p.m. ET on ABC

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Spread: Texas -14.5

Moneyline:

• Oklahoma State: +460
• Texas: -650

Total: 55.5 (-115/-105)

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Matchup Analysis

Staying close to Austin, the Longhorns will make the 200-mile trip north to AT&T Stadium: home of the Dallas Cowboys. For Okie St., they'll make a slightly longer journey, crossing the Red River to arrive in Arlington with hopes of winning their first conference title since 2011. So, it's the burnt orange taking on the orange and black -- what should we expect?

As noted, these Big 12 sides did not meet over the 2023 regular season. For the last head-to-head contest between the 'Horns and Cowboys, we need only look back to 2022. In that contest, Oklahoma State won a high-scoring affair (41-34) in Stillwater. However, that Cowboy team more closely resembled the one that appeared in this same title game back in 2021 (losing to the Baylor Bears).

Coming into the current campaign, OKST had lower expectations after quarterback Spencer Sanders transferred to the Mississippi Rebels. Regardless, the Cowboys have gone forward with senior transfer Alan Bowman at signal-caller and now sit at 9-3 straight up (SU). Bowman has been sufficient, guiding the offense to 30.2 PPG. Still, tailback Ollie Gordon II has been the leader on offense. Gordon has already found the end zone on 21 occasions this season, individually producing 154.3 yards per game.

Proud as they come, the University of Texas will look forward to stifling Oklahoma State's offensive attack. Sporting an 11-1 record, the Longhorns are anchored by a stingy defense. In 2023, Texas has allowed just 17.2 PPG, which was the 12th-best clip in FBS through the regular season. Notably, linebacker Jaylan Ford sets the tempo; his 88 total tackles (10.5 TFL) paces the team this year, embodying that "Horns up" mentality.

On offense, Texas has been a strong group again this season. Despite sophomore starting quarterback Quinn Ewers missing time earlier in 2023, the 'Horns have still shined behind 35.1 PPG (22nd of 133). Even if Ewers needs to come out for any reason, backup signal-caller Maalik Murphy can right the ship.

With Ewers (74.5 QBR) returning to action back on Veteran's Day, the offense has steadily regained rhythm. For the Big 12 title game, expect Ewers to look for his dynamic receiving tandem in Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell -- they've combined for over 1,600 scrimmage yards. Once you add in halfback Jonathon Brooks (6.1 yards per carry) and his abilities, Texas boasts a genuinely well-rounded squad.

That is all to say that the Cowboys will have their hands full on defense this weekend. Oklahoma State does have a stout front seven, especially behind explosive pass rushers Collin Oliver and Nickolas Martin (who show six sacks apiece). It will be fun to see them go at the Texas offensive line, which is a big group strong with experience.

I mentioned that Oklahoma State has not won a conference championship in football since 2011. Well, the 'Horns are actually on a longer drought, not having worn the Big 12 crown since 2009. With this being Texas' final year in the conference, the urgency to add another title is alarming in Austin.

Considering OKST is the second-biggest longshot of championship weekend, there are multiple angles to approach this Big 12 title game from. For the record: the spread has already increased from UT -13.5 to -14.5 on Monday afternoon. That indicates public confidence in the Longhorns. In just a few short days, we'll find out if the support is justified.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Best Bet

Texas -14.5 (-110)

This Saturday, Oklahoma State (+460 ML) shows as the largest underdog on FanDuel Sportsbook outside of the Iowa Hawkeyes. With such an ambitious price, I don't hate if anyone wants to sprinkle something light on the Cowboys SU.

Still, in 2023, Texas has already earned more wins (11) than any prior Steve Sarkisian-led program. The talent on the Longhorns is overwhelming. I like them to win by at least two scores, so I will lay the inflated 14.5 points with Texas playing up Interstate 35 in Arlington.

We also should not ignore the fact that the 'Horns still have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. At FanDuel Sportsbook, UT shows +154 odds to qualify for the CFP. For that to occur, they will need to make an example of Oklahoma State.

At numberFire, the CFB game projections yield an estimated score of 46.58-24.78 in favor of Texas this Saturday. That provides a point differential of 21.8, which would cover even a three-score spread. With nearly a touchdown's worth of cushion, per numberFire's model, I am comfortable going 'Horns up and against the spread (ATS) this weekend.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.