Nuggets vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 11

Nuggets vs. Rockets Game Info

• Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Time: 10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
• Coverage: ESPN, SCHN, and ALT

Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets (40-24) are 5-point underdogs against Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets (39-26) Wednesday, March 11, 2026 at Ball Arena. The matchup tips off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN, SCHN, and ALT. The point total for the matchup is set at 228.5.

Nuggets vs. Rockets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Rockets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Nuggets win (62.4%)

Nuggets vs. Rockets Betting Trends

• The Nuggets have compiled a 36-29-0 record against the spread this season.
• The Rockets are 28-36-0 against the spread this year.
• Nuggets games have gone over the total 41 times out of 64 chances this season.
• Rockets games this season have gone over the total in 28 of 64 opportunities (43.8%).
• Denver has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than away games. It has covered 14 times in 30 games at home, and it has covered 22 times in 35 games when playing on the road.
• In home games, the Nuggets eclipse the total 53.3% of the time (16 of 30 games). They hit the over more consistently on the road, topping the total in 71.4% of games (25 of 35).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, Houston has a lower winning percentage at home (.367, 11-19-0 record) than away (.500, 17-17-0).
• Rockets games have gone above the over/under less frequently at home (10 times out of 30) than away (18 of 34) this year.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic's numbers on the season are 28.9 points, 12.5 boards and 10.3 assists per game, shooting 57.5% from the field (10th in NBA) and 39.4% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.9 made 3-pointers.
• Murray is averaging 25.4 points, 7.2 assists and 4.4 boards.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 14 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists. Defensively, he averages 0.5 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
• Bruce Brown is averaging 7.5 points, 4 boards and 2.2 assists.
• Jonas Valanciunas' numbers on the season are 8.5 points, 5 boards and 1.2 assists per contest, shooting 57.4% from the floor.

Rockets Leaders

• Durant is averaging 26.1 points, 5.5 boards and 4.5 assists for the Rockets.
• Alperen Sengun averages 20.3 points, 9.1 boards and 6.1 assists. He is also making 50.2% of his shots from the floor.
• The Rockets are getting 17.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game from Amen Thompson.
• The Rockets receive 15.4 points per game from Jabari Smith Jr., plus 6.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists.
• Reed Sheppard averages 13.5 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He is draining 43% of his shots from the floor and 39.4% from beyond the arc, with 2.6 triples per game.

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