NRFI Bets to Target on Friday 4/12/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

While temperatures remain cool across Friday's slate, we're seeing quite a bit of wind in the forecast -- and in most cases, it's blowing out.

Tonight's game in Philadelphia is one such instance. Temperatures may be a touch under 60 degrees, but we should see winds out to right field at around 18 mph by first pitch. Given that Citizens Bank Park is already a great venue for home runs, per Baseball Savant's park factors, this looks like a spot to consider a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI).

Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez has begun this campaign with one good and one bad start, leaving him with a mediocre 21.5% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate through 9 1/3 innings.

Sanchez generally had stellar numbers the first time through the order last season, but home runs were a frequent issue. In his 18 starts, he allowed 11 dingers the first time through the order (2.4 HR/9), and 10 of those bombs came off right-handed bats.

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't done a ton of their damage in the first inning so far, but they've been an above-average offense versus lefties and project to have all right-handed batters occupying the first six slots in the order.

Another southpaw, Bailey Falter, will take the mound for Pittsburgh. Falter has arguably gotten off to the worst 2024 start amongst today's pitchers, showing a 6.56 xFIP, 7.3% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate over 10 innings.

The long ball has been a huge problem for Falter over his career (1.7 HR/9), and he allowed nine dingers the first time through the order over 14 starts last season.

Although most of those round-trippers came off righties, Falter coughs up homers to both sides of the plate, as he gave up six to lefties over just 14 1/3 innings in the split in 2023.

The Phillies' offense has been one of the best in the first inning this season, scoring 38.5% of the time (T-5th), and lefty sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper shouldn't miss a beat despite the same-handed matchup.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

We find nearly identical conditions in Chicago for this matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox with winds nearing 20 mph blowing out to center. It could be slightly cooler than Philadelphia, but the game sits at a solid 9.0-run total, and the wind should be at its strongest early on.

Recent Injuries to Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada leave an already subpar White Sox offense in a sorry state, making them the weak link of this YRFI wager. But they project to have a righty-heavy lineup to counter southpaw Andrew Abbott, and Abbott gave up 1.5 HR/9 to righties off a 50.6% fly-ball rate last season.

Despite a strong rookie campaign overall in 2023, Abbott was shaky in the first inning, posting a 4.92 xFIP across his 21 opening frames. He's begun 2024 with respectable results but enters today with a pedestrian 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.0% swinging-strike rate.

Cincinnati has been quiet in the first inning this season but is an above-average lineup that should get things going. Facing Chris Flexen should lend them a hand.

Flexen has recorded a pair of iffy starts, resulting in a 5.85 xFIP, 10.6% strikeout rate, and 10.6% walk rate. He struggled mightily in 2023, and that included giving up 1.7 HR/9 the first time through the order.

The right-hander showed reverse splits last year, posting a 5.74 xFIP and 12.5% strikeout rate in same-handed matchups. Jonathan India should be able to take advantage, and perhaps this jumpstarts Christian Encarnacion-Strand's bat.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.