Nick Chubb Is the Safest RB Option in Fantasy Football

If you've done a mock draft this year, you know that drafters are pretty nervous about taking running backs early.

Understandably so, as the running back position carries injury woes far more than the wide receiver position. And if it's not injuries, it's trying to figure out the few runners who will get enough opportunities to warrant an early selection.

That's where Nick Chubb enters the conversation. Going for a high ceiling is nice but taking the floor with a guy like Chubb can be the best choice if you do want a running back early to trust.

Here is a look at Chubb's fantasy football projections and outlook for the season.

Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Projection

(All projections via numberFire.com)

2023 Projected Points: 276.9 points
numberFire Positional Projection: RB5
2023 Projected Stats:

• 350.6 rushes
• 1,736.1 rushing yards
• 11.3 rushing TDs
• 28.6 receptions
• 208.0 receiving yards
• 1.1 receiving TDs

Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Outlook

Model of Consistency

When you're looking for fantasy players early, there are two ways to attack it. You'll go for players with the highest of ceilings or you'll be willing to instead take guys that you know you're going to get. Then there's the mix of getting one of each to make up for each other.

Nick Chubb is the best rusher in the game today. He averages a career 5.2 yards per carry and has recorded four straight years of 1,000-plus yards on the ground. Everything about Chubb is simple and sometimes, that's all you want.

Any injury "concern" that he had dealt with the previous two seasons was shut down when he played all 17 games last season, giving everyone an idea of what a full season looks like out of him.

It's worth noting that in his rookie season once he became the starter, he averaged 15.5 points per game in 10 games. That same 15.5 PPG is also his career average which would rank him as a top 10 back every season.

That right there is consistency at its finest.

No More Sharing, Better Offense Expected

Maybe one of the quietest storylines of fantasy football this offseason is that Nick Chubb won't be in a split backfield anymore.

The Cleveland Browns decided to move on from Kareem Hunt in the offseason, leaving Chubb at the top of the depth chart with only unproven backups behind him. That should matter a lot more to drafters than it has so far.

Hunt wasn't as much of a factor in 2023 but he will still be giving up a lot of carries and that means something. Hunt had a 41.5% snap share. Some of that is probably going to go the likes of Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton but not all of it. That can only be great news to Chubb's 56.7% snap share from a season ago.

Chubb hasn't been much of a pass catcher in his career (best is 36 receptions in 2019) but he's no slouch either when the opportunities have been presented. Any addition of receptions will only help his value, as fantasy owners have learned to deal with the lack thereof when it comes to that part of his game.

More opportunity is good for fantasy. You know what else is good for fantasy? An offense that is supposed to be better than it has been the past two years.

When the Browns went and traded for Deshaun Watson, they believed that he could return to his pre-holdout and off-the-field issues version of himself that was an MVP-caliber quarterback. Now, when he came back at the end of last season, he couldn't have looked worse, but rust can be and was probably a factor. A full offseason under Kevin Stefanski where he will start Week 1 should do the trick for Watson and the Browns offense.

They added pass catcher Elijah Moore to bolster the offense even more, so all in all, this very well could be the best offense Chubb has played in. If that's the case, it's likely going to be on his back.

Final Verdict: Fantasy's Safest RB with Upside

Nick Chubb is as safe as it gets in fantasy. That bores some people but with the upside that he has this year to add the extra layer of receiving, he should be one of the best picks of any draft.

The knock on Chubb is gone. "His floor is good but his ceiling isn't high enough." That's gone. The ceiling can be as high as the league's best running back should have.

numberFire has Chubb projected for a big season as he comes in as the RB5 with 276.9 points. That's more projected points than all but one wide receiver heading into the season.

His average draft position (ADP) for where he may land is also what makes him valuable -- especially for any team looking to get a running back and wide receiver as a combo at the 1st-2nd round turn. FantasyPros has Chubb's current ADP at 10.3, behind both Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. In FanDuel best ball leagues, Chubb is all the more appreciated. He has a 7.9 ADP.

No matter how you slice it, Chubb should be a guy going early in drafts. And in a year of the wide receiver, the Browns' top rusher is as trustworthy as it gets.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.