Nick Chubb Is the Rightful Favorite to Be the NFL's Rushing Leader

With four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, Nick Chubb enters the 2023 season as the favorite to lead the league in rushing yards.

Chubb finished a solid third in rushing last season, amassing 1,525 yards -- 128 behind league leader Josh Jacobs. That marked the third season Chubb has finished inside the top three (2019 and 2021 the others), but he still has yet to take home the rushing crown.

He's knocking on the door in 2023, at least according to the season leader markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nick Chubb may be the safest RB option in fantasy football, but let's dive into what it'll take for him to take home the rushing leader crown in 2023.

Rushing Leader Trends

Here's how the past five rushing leaders have fared, starting with the incumbent Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs' 1,653-yard 2022 season marked a noticeable dip in total yards compared to the two prior leaders but was still the fourth consecutive year the rushing leader eclipsed 1,500 yards. It was also the first time since 2018 that the rushing leader averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per carry (YPC) and 100 yards per game (YPG), but Jacobs' 4.9 YPC and 97.2 YPG weren't far off that mark.

Although Chubb has averaged over 5.0 YPC in all five of his NFL seasons, he's only racked up greater than 90 YPG once (2019). Nevertheless, he carries the shortest odds to take the rushing title in a 2023 season where he's projected to see a massive uptick in usage.

Nick Chubb 2023 Rushing Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projected Stats:

• 350.64 Rushing attempts
• 1736.05 Rushing yards
• 11.27 Rushing touchdowns

Nick Chubb 2023 Rushing Outlook

Nick Chubb has never struggled with efficiency.

The second-team All-Pro running back averages a robust 5.2 YPC for his career and clocked in at 5.1 YPC last season despite eclipsing 300 carries for the first time in his career.

Using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, we can pretty confidently say that Chubb has been one of the very best running backs in the league over the last three seasons.

*Rank among qualified running backs.

For three consecutive seasons, Chubb has finished inside the top-five running backs in both total Rushing NEP and Rushing NEP per play -- and he may be getting better.

Not only did Chubb set career-best marks in carries (302) and yards (1,525) last season, but the 27-year-old eclipsed a 45.36% rush success rate for the first time in his career. While he nearly matched his carry and yardage totals back in 2019, he only registered a 38.93% success rate that season. That's a sign that Chubb may be at the peak of his powers entering 2023.

While Chubb recorded just a single 100-yard game after Deshaun Watson took over in Week 13, his usage skyrocketed over the second half of the year. Then-backup Kareem Hunt fell out of the rotation after Cleveland's bye, leading to a massive uptick in snap and rush share for Chubb.

From Weeks 1-8, Chubb and Hunt saw a nearly identical snap share (53.3%-47.9%) despite Chubb still dominating the rushing share (49.1%-33.3%).

After their Week 9 bye, Chubb's snap share climbed to 59.7% while his rushing share soared to 59.1%.

Although he averaged 1.6 fewer carries and 29.1 fewer yards per game over that span, Cleveland was without their second-best offensive lineman for a good portion of the season half. Ethan Pocic, PFF's third-highest-graded center, missed five games from Weeks 12-16, during which Chubb averaged just 4.1 YPC and registered a 41.18% success rate. Compare that to 5.5 YPC and a 47.50% success rate with Pocic on the field.

Pocic is back in 2023, leading PFF's second-ranked offensive line unit.

Kareem Hunt, on the other hand, is gone and replaced by some combination of Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton -- both of whom only have 8 career carries. With Ford's Week 1 status up in the air, Chubb could see even more work than last season.

With the Browns having the 12th-easiest strength of schedule (SOS) via NFL win totals, Chubb has an easier SOS than other top candidates such as Derrick Henry (13th), Saquon Barkley (22nd), Josh Jacobs (30th), and Tony Pollard (21st).

The talent has been there for Chubb to lead the league in rushing. The only thing holding him back thus far has been a lack of opportunities. Coming off a career year and with no real competition in his backfield, Nick Chubb is the rightful favorite to lead the NFL in rushing in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.