NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Thursday 11/16/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Semyon Varlamov, New York Islanders ($8,000)

In the second game of a back-to-back, Semyon Varlamov is going to have to step up big for the New York Islanders.

Considering his start to the season, it wouldn't be asking too much of Varlamov. While he is the backup to Ilya Sorokin, he's outplayed the Vezina Trophy-caliber netminder. Over his first five starts, he's dazzled between the pipes with a 2.04 goals against average and .940 save percentage. It's as though Varlamov has turned back the clock in his age-35 season.

His efforts are only stronger when looking at his goals saved above expectations (GSAx), which ranks seventh in the NHL at 7.61. It's all the more impressive seeing that every goalie above him on the list has seven or more starts while he has five.

The Islanders should be able to lean on him tonight when they take on the Seattle Kraken.

Seattle has been a fine offensive team despite the 5-8-4 start to their campaign. The Kraken have a 59.74 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes, which ranks 18th in the NHL. Their main problem has been getting the puck into the net. They're averaging just 2.47 Goals For per 60 minutes, ranking 29th in the NHL.

Varlamov should be played with confidence tonight, as he's projected for 20.0 FanDuel points, per numberFire's model.

Stacks

Vegas Golden Knights

The Vegas Golden Knights have been one of hockey's best teams in the early going, and that shouldn't change tonight against the Montreal Canadiens.

At 12-3-1, the Golden Knights have proven their dominance as they defend their Stanley Cup Championship from a year ago. What's interesting about Vegas is that they're not creating as many opportunities as you'd think they are -- just a 57.74 Corsi For (23rd) -- but the puck is going in the net. The Golden Knights rank 10th in the NHL in Goals For at 3.37 per 60 minutes, so they know how to get it done by any means necessary.

Taking on the Canadiens, they'll be tasked with beating Jake Allen. The netminder has been a tough one to crack, having posted a 4.64 GSAx. That's the 14th-best in the NHL. His overall numbers are solid, as well, having put together a 3.30 GAA and .911 save percentage.

This is all to say that Allen has allowed three or more goals in his last four starts and shouldn't be stopping now. The Canadiens also have a 64.41 Corsi Against, the sixth-highest in the NHL. Vegas should have their way tonight.

Stacking the Golden Knights should start with the top line duo of Jack Eichel ($9,300) and Jon Audy-Marchessault ($6,000) with their usage on the top power-play unit. Shea Theodore ($6,400) is a good play on the defensive end.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Go all in on the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight.

The Lightning will be facing the lowly Chicago Blackhawks and should be able to make some noise on offense. The Blackhawks are allowing 68.29 Corsi Against, the fourth-worst in the NHL. This means opportunities will be aplenty for the Bolts, who rank in the middle of the league in Corsi For (60.03).

It won't be easy with Petr Mrazek in net, however. Mrazek has shined in every way this season, putting together a 2.84 GAA and .921 save percentage over eight starts. That being said, he hasn't started in over a week, and the last time he did, three goals were scored against him. Add in that he's had a save percentage under .900 in the last two seasons, so we know he is someone who can be beaten.

The Lightning have the third-best implied total of the night at 3.71, per numberFire's heat map.

Stacking this offense will come down to their big three. Nikita Kucherov ($10,300), Brayden Point ($8,000), and Steven Stamkos ($7,900) are the top three projected players in numberFire's model for the entire slate, making them all near must-plays if you're stacking the Lightning.

Value Skaters

Patrik Laine, W, Columbus Blue Jackets ($5,800)

Patrik Laine has returned to the Columbus Blue Jackets and is getting his form back.

After missing nine games due to an upper-body injury, Laine has been putting shots on net and showing his goal-scoring prowess. Even though he has just one goal since returning, he's totaled 11 shots over three games. In seven games this season, he has two goals, an assist, and three points, so he's overdue for some puck luck tonight.

Against the Arizona Coyotes, Laine should be able to get plenty of shots, as they have a 61.83 Corsi Against on the year while the Blue Jackets have a 63.31 Corsi For. It's the perfect matchup. With his usage on the first line and top power-play unit, he is due for a big game sooner rather than later.

numberFire's model has Laine projected to finish with 13.8 FanDuel points.

Pavel Buchnevich, W, St. Louis Blues ($4,800)

Maybe we're getting greedy, but we're going to run it back with Pavel Buchnevich once again.

The Blues come into the night against the San Jose Sharks with the best implied total of any team at 3.74. The offense for St. Louis should be active as a result, and with the roll Buchnevich has been on, he's good again as a value.

Buchnevich has six points in his last three games. He's totaled 26 shots over his first 12 games of the season and has a plus/minus of +7. The 28-year-old is beneficial to the Blues when he's on the ice as a first liner and top winger on the power play, so it's hard to go away from him -- especially against the Sharks tonight.

Buchnevich is projected for 12.5 FanDuel points, per numberFire.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.