NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 12/17/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks ($7,500)

While many will looking to be stacking against John Gibson ($7,500) on this slate, I want to back him.

I'd heed a word of caution to those looking at New Jersey Devils stacks. Gibson is not a version of himself from prior years, sporting the 11th-most goals saved above expectation (10.27 GSAx) and a .903 save rate this season. It's absurd he's got a save rate above .900 when the Anaheim Ducks are ceding 3.42 expected goals per 60 minutes.

The upside of a potential Gibson gem comes from New Jersey's shot volume. The Devils are fifth in the NHL in Corsi per 60 minutes (65.2), so while they are dangerous, save points await in droves.

numberFire's projections have Gibson pegged at 12.7 FanDuel points tonight. I'll take the over when also believing the Ducks cover a goal margin -- or potentially win -- behind their goalie.

Stacks

Colorado Avalanche

Fresh off the heels of a 6-2 defeat last night, the Colorado Avalanche could blow off some serious steam tonight.

Colorado is averaging 3.26 expected goals per 60 (ninth-best in the NHL), and the Sharks allow 3.77 expected goals per 60 -- easily worst in hockey. This is a lopsided matchup on paper, and Mackenzie Blackwood (3.77 GSAx in 20 appearances) hasn't been prohibitive enough to avoid stacking against San Jose in most instances.

Luckily, there is plenty of value despite a small, four-game slate. That means we can target Colorado's premier stack, and it's going to cost us some fake FanDuel dollars. Nathan MacKinnon ($10,400), Mikko Rantanen ($9,400), and Valeri Nichushkin ($7,500) are among the highest-salaried stacks in the sport across the Avalanche's top even-strength and power-play units, but at least Devon Toews ($5,500) offers a bit of salary relief joining them on the blue line while Cale Makar is out of the lineup.

New Jersey's offense is humming, and the Avalanche have scuffled a bit recently. I'm hoping that leads to a bit less popularity in this sublime spot.

Washington Capitals

I can't believe the Washington Capitals-Carolina Hurricanes total sits at just 5.5. If that's the case, I want to be here under the radar as much as possible.

The goaltending on both sides of the game is poor, but with Pyotr Kochetkov confirmed in goal for Carolina, it's especially bad on their end. At -5.02 GSAx, Kochetkov ranks 71st of 77 qualifying goalies. He's been extremely leaky when spelling Antti Raanta.

Washington is an offense to target moving forward, too. Their offense is averaging 2.41 goals per 60 minutes, but they're posting 3.08 expected goals per 60. Kochetkov should help them get rolling.

This stack also correlates incredibly well with Alex Ovechkin ($6,700), John Carlson ($6,100), Tom Wilson ($5,900), and Dylan Strome ($5,500) playing together in all ice conditions on the Caps' top line, and none of them come at a prohibitive salary.

Carolina's correlation can be a bit tricky; I prefer the 'dog as a value stack despite this enviornment, in general, being slept on.

Value Skaters

Alex Killorn, W, Anaheim Ducks ($4,500)

Hey, if the Ducks are going to pull an upset, it'll require some offense, too.

I'd actually feel even better about that then Gibson surviving the Devils' offensive onslaught. New Jersey is turning to Vitek Vanecek in goal tonight, and he's been one of the worst goaltenders in the sport seeing regular playing time. Vanecek's -7.58 GSAx is second-worst in the NHL, and his .883 save rate is seventh-worst in the NHL.

Anaheim's top-three forwards correlate at even strength and with a man advantage, so they're another plausible value stack. Leo Carlsson ($6,300) centers Troy Terry ($4,600) and Alex Killorn ($4,500) in all ice conditions.

Killorn only has three points in six December games, but numberFire's projections are optimistic today. They've got the winger pegged for 11.3 FanDuel points, which makes him the fifth-best point-per-dollar play on Sunday's slate.

William Eklund, W, San Jose Sharks ($3,900)

Don't discount the Sharks doing their best to keep pace with the Avalanche.

Even at a pitiful 2.11 goals per 60 minutes thus far, they've deserved better at 2.52 expected goals per 60. Colorado isn't the outlierishly great defense they've been in prior seasons, either. The Avs are 11th in expected goals allowed per 60 (3.00), and they've seen a drastic drop in goaltending this season. Alexandar Georgiev ranks 55th of 77 qualifying goaltenders in GSAx (-1.03).

Virtually any Sharks option you can imagine comes with a fairly low salary, evidenced by William Eklund ($3,900). Eklund mans San Jose's left wing on their top even-strength and power-play lines with a solid TOI average (18:44).

This might just be a bit of oversight by FanDuel's salary-makers, though. Eklund has six points in seven December games in his great role. He's a phenomenal addition to lineups stacking Avs should this game shoot out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.