NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 11/12/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Casey DeSmith, Vancouver Canucks ($8,100)

Especially considering I'm expecting an over between the Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers, Casey DeSmith ($8,100) becomes a pretty obvious target on Sunday's short, three-game slate.

DeSmith will tag out Thatcher Demko, who leads the NHL with 13.47 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season. DeSmith has 2.63 GSAx in five appearances, which is 24th of 71 qualifying goalies. That's a workable mark entering a favorable matchup with the Montreal Canadiens.

Montreal, unfortunately, has the eighth-worst Corsi For per 60 minutes (56.5), so the save volume might not be elite, but they're a pretty high-floor spot. The Habs have posted just 2.94 expected goals per 60 behind the low shot volume.

DeSmith is projected for 19.0 FanDuel points by numberFire, which is the highest mark on today's main slate.

Stack

Anaheim Ducks

If we get the San Jose Sharks on such a small slate, the entire process will revolve around accepting or rejecting the opposing team.

Despite a couple of recent wins, San Jose is last in the NHL in Corsi Allowed (74.4) and expected goals allowed (3.90) per 60 minutes. They're still the worst defensive team in the league by a good margin, and Mackenzie Blackwood (-0.35 GSAx) largely hasn't been able to put out the fire.

Luckily, there are different ways to stack the opposing Anaheim Ducks, and that'll likely decide tournaments. The most popular stack is likely their first even-strength and power-play units, which feature Troy Terry ($6,400), Alex Killorn ($5,300), and Leo Carlsson ($5,300) across the board. Obviously, those salaries aren't prohibitive to keep folks away.

However, you could differentiate to the second power-play unit, featuring Frank Vatrano ($8,000), Ryan Strome ($5,600), and blue-liner Cam Fowler ($4,700). Vatrano leads the Ducks in shots (43) and goals (9), so I'm actually expecting popularity despite his lesser role on the ice.

At fair salaries, the Ducks will be in a vast majority of entries tonight. Plan accordingly.

Value Skaters

Tomas Hertl, C, San Jose Sharks ($5,200)

On the other side of that one, San Jose usually finds themselves having to keep pace offensively, and they certainly could tonight.

Anaheim has allowed the fourth-most expected goals per 60 (3.59), but goalie John Gibson has posted 5.49 GSAx to clean up the mess. If Gibson is off his game, the Sharks might be able to pot a few looks themselves.

In addition to not being popular, the Sharks' key pieces come at low, low salaries. Tomas Hertl ($5,200) is one of numberFire's top-projected value plays at 13.5 FanDuel points, and it's hard to argue that when he's pounding 20:50 TOI within San Jose's top even-strength and man-advantage units.

He correlates with Fabian Zetterlund ($4,100), Calen Addison ($3,700), and William Eklund ($3,500) across both groups, so the San Jose top unit could be a sneaky, low-salaried way to approach the slate.

Johnny Gaudreau, W, Columbus Blue Jackets ($5,100)

As mentioned, I (and numberFire's model) are expecting an over in New York, and that would open up both sides of these clubs for stacking.

If Jonathan Quick reverts back to his 2022-23 form, that over could be the result of a Blue Jackets coming-out party. Quick (5.81 GSAx) has had an excellent start to the season, but he posted the fifth-worst GSAx with the Los Angeles Kings (-17.03) a year ago.

My question to today's slate is where are these low-salaried stacks on main slates when I need them? Columbus' top line of Boone Jenner ($7,400), Patrik Laine ($6,000), John Gaudreau ($5,100), and Zach Werenski ($5,100) are incredibly easy to fit in with DeSmith and Anaheim's top options.

Specifically, Gaudreau is projected for 11.8 FanDuel points today. I, too, am interested in "Johnny Hockey" if this one has shootout potential; he posted 74 points a year ago.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.