NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 12/2/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins ($8,100)

When in doubt, turn to the best. There are two standout options on this slate that should keep popularity between them decently low.

Logan Thompson ($8,800) certainly can work at his slate-high salary. He's posted the 11th-most goals saved above expectation (7.26 GSAx) this season, but I'm just concerned about his upside. The Washington Capitals' slate-low 2.36 implied team total isn't the problem; it's the fact Washington generates the fifth-fewest Corsi per 60 minutes (54.3) in the NHL. We need save points, too.

The Philadelphia Flyers' Corsi per 60 (61.3) is much higher, which should help the save volume for Tristan Jarry ($8,100) in this contest. The Pittsburgh Penguins' netminder has also outperformed Thompson at 11.77 cumulative GSAx in 17 games, so I have better faith his production sticks in the long run.

numberFire's model likes the under in this game, and Jarry is a huge reason why. The model projects him for 29.5 saves and 22.8 FanDuel points -- tied with Thompson for most on the slate despite the lower salary.

Stacks

Carolina Hurricanes

This is an odd slate. No game has a total above 6.5 goals, and the most juice in the direction of an over, as of this writing, is -110. It's just not a slate with a premium stacking spot.

The Carolina Hurricanes' 3.84 implied team total against the Buffalo Sabres might be as close as we get. Of course, the Canes come with a pretty high floor as an offense when leading the league in Corsi per 60 minutes (72.7), and Buffalo's Eric Comrie -- and his pitiful .880 save percentage -- aren't exactly intimidating.

It only helps -- for Thompson or Jarry -- that Carolina's salaries just aren't prohibitive. Sebastian Aho ($6,600) and Seth Jarvis ($5,800) are the obvious lead choices as the only members of both their top even-strength and power-play units, but they're joined on man advantage by a trio of talented value plugs: Teuvo Teravainen ($5,900), Brent Burns ($5,400), and Andrei Svechnikov ($4,900).

Carolina should be a decently popular option on the slate, but they're not special enough to command significant attention. I don't see a better process play at this stage.

Ottawa Senators

Loving the over in this game, I think the Ottawa Senators are the best stack on the slate overall when factoring in popularity.

They're a pedestrian offense (3.14 expected goals per 60 minutes) in a tough on-ice matchup when the opposing Seattle Kraken allow just 2.85 expected goals per 60 minutes (fifth-best in the NHL). There's definitely a path to failure here, but the goaltending tells us we want to be here more often than not. Seattle's tandem of Joey Daccord (-2.41 GSAx) and Philipp Grubauer (-5.09 GSAx) have taken turns in mediocrity to this point.

Ottawa is a much easier offense to stack, too. Brady Tkachuk ($8,700), Claude Giroux ($6,300), and Josh Norris ($5,900) all play together at the Sens' first line at five-on-five and with a man advantage. Salary can be spent on Tim Stutzle ($8,600), who joins them on the power play, as well. Thomas Chabot ($5,000) also just returned from injury, but the blue-liner has logged 24:36 TOI this year; he correlates with just about anyone.

If the Senators sneak under the radar, they have a case as the highest-upside stack on the slate when factoring in the Kraken's continued goaltending issues.

Value Skaters

Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken ($4,700)

However, an over usually works both ways. Don't sleep on Seattle's offense keeping pace.

For as prolific as some of the Senators' offensive pieces have been, they haven't gotten that effort out of prized offseason acquisition Joonas Korpisalo. Korpisalo's -2.92 GSAx have been a grave disappointment with a defense (3.11 expected goals allowed per 60) not quite as stout as Seattle's.

The only problem with the Kraken? Their correlation is pretty disastrous. Only Matty Beniers ($4,700) skates on their top even-strength and power-play units among forwards. As a defenseman, Vince Dunn ($6,200) joins him.

Seattle might be best served for one-off options, but this is easily my favorite enviornment of the day.

Jake Neighbours, W, St. Louis Blues ($4,200)

Scouring the board for any reasonable, punt-level options, Jake Neighbours ($4,200) makes plenty of sense.

Now, this isn't your older brother's Arizona Coyotes matchup for Neighbours and the St. Louis Blues, but it's not wholly prohibitive. Arizona is allowing the 15th-most expected goals per 60 minutes in the NHL (3.14), but it's goalie Connor Ingram (10.36 GSAx) that has made scoring on the Yotes a tough task.

I wouldn't stack against Arizona's defensive profile, but Neighbours' role is too good for this tiny salary. He's on St. Louis' top power-play and even-strength units, logging over 20:00 TOI in consecutive games in his new role. He's also posted four points in his last three games.

Neighbours will likely be salaried closer to his linemates -- Robert Thomas ($7,200) and Pavel Buchnevich ($6,500) -- before too long. Use him at this mark while you can.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.