NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 11/25/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins ($8,200)

Believe it or not, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a positive NHL DFS matchup.

Toronto's 62.0 Corsi For per 60 minutes (11th-best in the NHL) has only resulted in 3.17 expected goals per 60 minutes (14th). Therefore, we can lean on pretty strong netminders against them, and I'd say Tristan Jarry ($8,200) of the Pittsburgh Penguins qualifies.

Of 73 qualifying NHL goalies, Jarry ranks 10th in goals saved above expectation (7.51 GSAx). He's added a .942 Fenwick save rate (FSv%) to that. By any measure, Jarry has held up his end of the bargain for the 9-10 Penguins.

Adin Hill ($7,600) should be a popular option at home against the Arizona Coyotes behind 10.11 GSAx himself, but Jarry is a worthy tournament pivot to consider should Hill have a bad night at the office in a majority of lineups.

Stacks

Colorado Avalanche

Backup goaltenders in Denver could lead to a shootout between two top-10 teams in expected goals per 60 minutes.

The mighty Colorado Avalanche offense should lead the dance at home. Colorado is sixth in expected goals per 60 (3.47), and they've topped three goals in six straight. We can rely on them, and Dan Vladar (-4.75 GSAx) of the Calgary Flames hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt to this point.

Though it'll come with a premium, the Avs' latest line combinations have made for an easy stack. Nathan MacKinnon ($9,900), Mikko Rantanen ($9,600), Cale Makar ($8,600), and Valeri Nichushkin ($7,000) all play together at even strength and with a man advantage. They're the team's four point leaders, and no other player on the team has more than 12 points.

It's not just the matchup here. It's the ability to encapsulate most of its upside with four guys. I see Colorado as the top stack on the slate by a wide margin.

Buffalo Sabres

The Buffalo Sabres are still missing their best player, center Tage Thompson, but they've got the matchup to score today. The New Jersey Devils' season-long issues with defense haven't been corrected.

They're allowing the seventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.28), and unfortunately for their fans, the struggling Vitek Vanecek appears in line to get the nod on the back-to-back. Vanecek is 72nd of 73 qualifiers with -7.44 GSAx to this point.

Thankfully, like Colorado, the Sabres have made their lineup significantly easier to stack. Casey Mittelstadt ($5,500) has lept to the team's top even-strength and power-play lines around Alex Tuch ($7,200) and Jeff Skinner ($6,300). Blue-liner Rasmus Dahlin ($6,900) joins them in all ice situations.

Buffalo's stack carries enough value to use bits of it with Colorado parts, making them perhaps the more valuable target of the two.

Value Skaters

Nazem Kadri, C, Calgary Flames ($5,600)

On the other side of Avs-Flames, it's much harder to define out a stack. We're probably limited to one-offs if that game explodes well beyond its 6.5-goal total.

Of Calgary's options, numberFire's model is shining most favorably on Nazem Kadri ($5,600) in a revenge spot against the club with which he won the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals. Kadri's role, on its own, is pretty stellar. He's logging 18:12 TOI and has posted 13 points on the season, but his correlation is the issue.

Kadri centers Calgary's third even-strength line, so you'd most likely want to stack him with Calgary's top power-play pieces, including Elias Lindholm ($5,900), Jonathan Huberdeau ($5,000), and Rasmus Andersson ($6,400) on defense. The lack of correlation of all at even strength just makes it tougher to justify doing so.

numberFire's model pegs Kadri for 16.0 projected FanDuel points, which makes him the second-best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate.

Conor Garland, W, Vancouver Canucks ($4,000)

We've got similar correlation issues in the true best matchup on paper, too.

The Vancouver Canucks should be the latest team to pummel the San Jose Sharks' outlier-level bad defense. San Jose is ceding a league-worst 3.80 expected goals per 60 minutes, and Kaapo Kahkonen (-2.36 GSAx) has only made matters worse in goal.

However, they're tricky to stack. Elias Pettersson ($9,100) leads the team in TOI average (19:34), but none of his even-strength linemates join him on the power play. J.T. Miller ($9,500) and Brock Boeser ($7,800) correlate in all ice situations from the second line with Pettersson, but they're getting second-line minutes for top salaries. The 'Nucks also use two defensemen on their top power-play unit. Ugh.

Therefore, the best approach might just be taking value where we can find it. That's Conor Garland ($4,000) on Vancouver's third line and second power-play unit, but he's got point potential at a punt-level salary.

nF is also a huge fan of the former Coyote, projecting him with 9.9 FanDuel points that would absolutely work for the cost.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.