NHL Betting Picks: Wednesday 11/1/23

November kicks off with just four games on Wednesday.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers

Flyers ML (-110)

The Buffalo Sabres were a darling of the offseason. After some of Buffalo's young players took a step forward last year, people were hoping for big things for them this season.

But some of the same issues remain for the Sabres in 2023-24. They still have questions about their goaltending and defense. They scored the third-most goals in the league last season but still couldn't make the playoffs.

That offense hasn’t carried over this campaign. They are currently creating just 2.81 expected goals per 60 minutes, the fourth-fewest in the league.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Flyers have been surprisingly excellent so far. Their 4-4-1 record may not seem too impressive, but their underlying numbers are strong. They are the eighth-best team in expected goals percentage at five-on-five, while Buffalo sits in 20th.

Carter Hart has recovered from a few bad years and has saved 14.36 goals above expected since the start of the 2022-23 season. This should give Philly the goaltending edge tonight, as the Sabres are likely to start Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. UPL has allowed 10.35 goals above expected over the same time period.

The Flyers have played better than the Sabres and have the advantage in goal, so getting them in what's essentially a pick 'em is nice value tonight. numberFire's model also likes the Flyers, making them a two-star bet tonight.

Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

Stars ML (-130)

The Dallas Stars were considered contenders for the Stanley Cup heading into the season. Nothing they've done so far this season suggests that that was wrong.

The Stars are 5-1-1 through seven games. They are the best team in the league in terms of expected goals percentage at five-on-five. They also have a very solid goaltender in Jake Oettinger, who has the seventh-most goals saved above expected since the start of last season.

There was some hope for the Calgary Flames before the season. They had great underlying numbers but needed a bit more shooting luck and finishing to realize that. They hoped that switching coaches from Darryl Sutter to Ryan Huska would change that, but not much has changed.

Calgary hasn't been getting any luck in the finishing department at either end of the ice. They have the second-lowest team shooting percentage and the lowest team save percentage at five-on-five.

The Flames are just 2-6-1 on the season. There's nothing to suggest that Dallas isn't a much better team than Calgary and laying -130 isn't too big of a price to pay on them tonight.

Arizona Coyotes at Anaheim Ducks

Under 6.5 (-110)

The Arizona Coyotes had their best win in a long time on Monday night, defeating the Chicago Blackhawks, 8-1, at home.

This may say more about the Blackhawks than it does the Coyotes. Nearly 30% of Arizona's goals this season were scored in that game. They also were expected to score just 4.47 goals in that game and nearly doubled that.

The Coyotes will face an Anaheim Ducks team that has been much better than people expected them to be. They just won four out of four road games, including beating the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins.

The biggest story for the Ducks has been young goalie Lukas Dostal. He has been excellent, notching a .922 save percentage and saving 5.65 goals above expected. Karel Vejmelka has been very good for Arizona, as well, with a .927 save percentage and 3.27 goals saved above expected.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 12 in shot-attempt rate, scoring-chance rate and high-danger chance rate. They aren't offensive juggernauts by any means, and if both goaltenders stay hot, this game should go under 6.5 goals.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.