NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 2/15/24: Avalanche, Lightning Headline a Big Night

The NHL is in full swing tonight with a 12-game slate full of enticing matchups to pick from.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

Over 6.5 Goals (-138)

The Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning are two high-scoring teams that are colliding at the right time.

Scoring at a high capacity is what we're looking for when taking the Over 6.5 Goals total, and we're getting these squads at the right time. No two teams have been scoring at the rate that these two have been over the last 10 games, making this the perfect matchup for the over tonight.

The Avalanche are scoring at the highest rate of all NHL teams this season with 3.67 Goals For per 60 minutes, and that's been elevated to 3.89 over their last 10 games. On the other side of the ice will be the Lightning, who rank second through the last 10 games in Goals For per 60 minutes at 3.77.

These two teams haven't been defensive stoppers on the year, either, which is why they haven't been as dominant as they have been previous seasons. The Avalanche are letting up 3.14 Goals per 60 minutes, and the Lightning are allowing 3.25 Goals per 60 minutes. It's a perfect storm for tonight.

Run with the over and don't look back. All signs point to this being the game of the night.

Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Flyers +1.5 (-176)

Lots of doubts surround the Toronto Maple Leafs -- as is the case every season -- and it's a reason I am siding with the gritty Philadelphia Flyers to cover.

Philadelphia isn't a perfect team by any stretch, but they find themselves with a 29-19-6 record. A lot of that has come due to a strong offense that runs the pace of play, with a 64.74 Corsi For per 60 minutes in their last 25 games helping that.

The Flyers don't score at a high rate (2.87 Goals For) but they make up for that with the way they compete under coach John Tortorella. And against a Maple Leafs team allowing 3.12 Goals Against per 60 minutes, Philly should be able to have success offensively.

Good news for Philadelphia is they keep the puck out of the net. That's pretty important against a high-octane team like Toronto, one that's scoring to the tune of 3.39 Goals For per 60 minutes. The Flyers are holding opponents to 2.79 Goals per 60 minutes -- the 10th-best in the NHL. I am banking on the Flyers' defense to keep this game close.

numberFire's model gives the Flyers a 73.42% likelihood to cover tonight. The -176 number implies odds of 63.77%.

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

Stars ML (-137)

The Dallas Stars are a true contender this season, and taking them to beat the Nashville Predators on the road is the way to go.

I've written about this Stars team a few times this campaign -- for good reason. Their lineup might be the deepest in hockey, filled with talent up and down. It's led them to having one of the best offensive and defensive units in the sport, as shown by the numbers.

Dallas ranks in the top 10 with a 62.57 Corsi For per 60 minutes (10th) and 3.61 Goals For per 60 minutes (3rd). The performance of players like Joe Pavelski and Thomas Harley is why the Stars rank so highly. It's going to be carried into tonight against the Predators.

Nashville isn't all too great at keeping the puck out of their own net, even with Juuse Saros between the pipes most of the time. They're letting up 3.15 Goals For per 60 minutes -- the 12th-most in hockey. Saros, who is expected to start, is having the worst season of his career. He's got a 2.97 goals against average and .903 save percentage in 42 starts. Add in that he's allowed three or more goals in four straight starts, and we can feel all the more confident about the Stars making noise today.

Taking a team to win away from home ice can be risky, but the Stars are 16-6-4 on the road -- they're as good as it gets at going into someone else's house and picking up a win. I have all the belief in Dallas getting the job done tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.