NHL Betting Picks for Monday 3/4/24: Colorado Should Dominate Chicago Again
We're a few days out from the trade deadline, and it's like the calm before the storm of deals that could shake up the playoff race.
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.
NHL Best Bets
Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames
Under 5.5 Goals (+102)
The Seattle Kraken and Calgary Flames are both fairly unlikely to make the playoffs. They set up nicely for this game to go under.
Calgary still has Jacob Markstrom ahead of the trade deadline despite the rumors. He's second in goals saved above expected (GSAx) in the NHL, regaining the 2021-22 form that saw him as one of the finalists for the Vezina trophy.
He will face a Kraken team that has failed to replicate their goal scoring from last season. They averaged the fourth-most goals per game, thanks in large part to a high shooting percentage. The shooting percentage has come back to Earth, and this season they are the fifth-lowest scoring team in the league on a per-game basis.
Calgary isn't exactly the most offensively dynamic team, either. They rank 16th in goals per game.
It's unconfirmed who will start in goal for Seattle at this point, but they are likely to get a solid effort from either Joey Daccord or Philipp Grubauer. Daccord has saved 7.3 goals above expected this season, and Grubauer has allowed 1.5 goals per game in six games since returning from injury on February 13th.
The model on numberFire backs up the data supporting the under, giving this bet a two-star rating.
Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche -1.5 (-156)
We get one of the biggest possible mismatches in the NHL this season when the Colorado Avalanche host the Chicago Blackhawks. Colorado won 5-0 on Thursday and is in an even better situation tonight.
The Avalanche have the best points percentage in the NHL at home, going 23-6-0 in Denver this season. They also average 4.23 goals per 60 minutes at home this season, by far the most in the league.
What better opponent for the best home team than the worst road team in the league? Chicago is just 4-24-1 on the road, and they somehow score only 30.8% of the goals in games away from home.
Normally, laying this big of a price on a puckline is not very fun, but in this matchup, it makes all the sense in the world. I wouldn't even hate going to the alternate puckline of Colorado -2.5 at +110, given what we know about these two teams.
St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers
Under 5.5 Goals (+104)
We'll target another under for our final bet of the night.
The Philadelphia Flyers have been a team to target unders on all season. They have allowed the fourth-fewest expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes and also have the best penalty kill in the league.
As good as they have been while shorthanded, they've been nearly the exact opposite on the power play. They have the second-worst PP in the league with just a 13.1% success rate. The Flyers will also be without Travis Konecny, who leads the team with 27 goals and 54 points.
The St. Louis Blues are a hard team to nail down exactly how they will play on a game-to-game basis. What we do know is that they average the seventh-fewest xG per 60 minutes.
St. Louis will start Jordan Binnington, who is ninth in GSAx this season. He should keep a weakened Flyers offense limited tonight.
With the typical way the Flyers have played this season, I like this one to say fairly low-scoring. It's nice to get better than even money on that, even if it's just slightly better.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.