NHL Betting Picks for Monday 1/8/24: Targeting Totals in Divisional Matchups

We'll kick off the week with four games that we can potentially find value on in the betting market.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers

Under 6.5 Goals (-128)

The battle of Pennsylvania kicks things off for us on Monday.

Most people would not have thought that the Philadelphia Flyers would be in a playoff spot at this point of the season. There were several teams thought to be contenders in the Metropolitan Division, and not many would have thought they would be in the top three nearly halfway through the campaign.

They've done this through having a strong, defensive structure under coach John Tortorella. They've allowed the fifth-fewest expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes and the eighth-fewest goals per game.

The Pittsburgh Penguins were supposed to be one of those Metro teams competing for a playoff spot. Instead, they are barely hanging on to try to get a wild card spot. Their offense has been the biggest disappointment, as they've gone from averaging 3.18 goals per game last season to 3.03 this season -- despite the addition of Erik Karlsson.

Pittsburgh has been able to hang around the playoff picture because they have been solid defensively, though. They allow the same number of goals per game as the Flyers.

I don't think this game sets up to be high-scoring, so under 6.5 goals at -128 is the play here. The model at numberFire rates this as a two-star bet tonight, backing up all the reasoning we can see in the numbers.

Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild

Over 6.5 Goals (+106)

This is a rematch of last year's first round playoff series, as the Dallas Stars will travel to play the Minnesota Wild. There are lots of key injuries on both sides that could dictate the total for this game.

The Stars will be without arguably their two most important players for goal prevention. They've been playing without Jake Oettinger for a while in goal and now stud defenseman Miro Heiskanen is also absent.

They've been using Scott Wedgewood as their goalie with Oettinger injured, but tonight, they will turn to Matt Murray. Note that this is not the same Matt Murray as the one who won two Stanley Cups with the Penguins. This Murray is an AHL goalie who made three starts for the Stars last season and allowed two goals above expected.

Minnesota has suffered a lot of injuries, as well. They'll be without their two best defensive defensemen in Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin. Filip Gustavsson is also injured, so the team is left with 39-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury in net. MAF has 4.9 goals above expected this season, as his career looks to be coming to an end.

I believe in both teams' ability to score in this game -- especially Dallas with their 3.58 goals per game. Getting +106 on this game exceeding the 6.5 total is nice in a matchup that has a chance to be a sneaky shootout.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.