NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 12/17/23

Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, and today is no different with just five games. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes

Over 6.5 (+120)
Dylan Strome to Record a Point (-108)

The goaltending in this game is simply too poor for a 5.5-goal total. Though imperfect, the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes can absolutely get to seven total goals this evening.

Washington's been extremely unlucky as an offense all season. They've only posted 2.41 goals per 60 minutes despite a much higher rate of expected goals per 60 (3.08). As one of the worst goalies in the league, Pyotr Kochetkov can certainly help them turn things around. Kochetkov is 71st of 77 qualifying goaltenders in goals saved above expectation (-5.02 GSAx) this season. Yikes.

The Caps are also turning to their backup on the road tonight. They burned Charlie Lindgren (10.73 GSAx) on Saturday, leaving Darcy Kuemper (0.97 GSAx) to start this evening. Kuemper's .895 save percentage (Sv%) got him benched for a reason.

If scoring is involved, numberFire's projections believe Dylan Strome to be involved far more than oddsmakers do. After all, Strome centers Alex Ovechkin at even strength and on the power play, and he's in line to set a new career-high mark in TOI average (17:46). Strome has also posted seven points in seven December contests.

Strome is projected for 0.85 points at a median by the model, leaving plenty of value on his pick 'em odds to record one.

Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils

Ducks +1.5 (-110)
Frank Vatrano 3+ Shots on Goal (-138)

This is another game where the goaltending gap just isn't getting enough love.

If it weren't for the goalies, the New Jersey Devils are clearly the better team. They're 11th in expected-goals-for rate (52.0 xGF%) across the league, and the Anaheim Ducks (45.0%) have the fourth-worst mark in the league. However, that gap is all but erased in goal.

John Gibson is enjoying his best season for the Ducks since 2019, posting a 10.27 GSAx and a .903 Sv% that's fairly remarkable behind one of the league's worst defenses. On the flip side, Vitek Vanecek (-7.58 GSAx) has been the worst goaltender in the league still seeing regular playing time.

On the back of Gibby, numberFire's model believes Anaheim covers 52.8% of the time tonight. We'll take it.

This prop stuck out if the Ducks were going to keep things tight. Frank Vatrano has been Anaheim's most voluminous shooter all season at 3.52 shots per game, and this is a great buy-low spot for him. He didn't get a single shot on goal on Friday.

He's still seen close to his usual TOI average this month (17:35), so I don't want to let that stinker deter me. Vatrano has still hit this mark in 10 of his last 13 games, and he's projected for 2.94 shots by nF tonight.

San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche

Over 6.5 (-110)
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goal (-125)

The Colorado Avalanche are likely motivated and angry on this back-to-back after losing 6-2 in Winnipeg on Saturday. That's a dangerous proposition if you're the San Jose Sharks here.

An offense like the Avs' appear like they could name their score against the putrid Sharks D. Colorado is averaging 3.26 expected goals per 60 (ninth-best in the NHL), and the Sharks are letting up an ugly 3.77 expected goals per 60 -- easily worst in hockey.

Of course, the goaltending on both sides here also leads to an over lean. Colorado's Alexandar Georgiev (-1.03 GSAx) has underperformed, and San Jose's Mackenzie Blackwood (3.77 GSAx) hasn't been significant enough of a tide to raise the Sharks' sinking ship.

numberFire's model projects 6.63 goals in this one. I also believe the Avalanche offense lets out some frustration against an overmatched opponent on Sunday.

If they do, Nathan MacKinnon has to be a favorite to contribute. Unbelievably, he hasn't scored in two games despite six shots, and MacKinnon's 4.43 attempts to score per game are among the NHL's best.

numberFire's model has MacKinnon pegged at a median with 0.74 goals tonight, which would translate to -285 odds to score. There's juice behind his goal prop -- but not nearly enough.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.