NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 11/12/23

Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, and today is no different with just five games. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers

Carter Verhaeghe 4+ Shots on Goal (+125)

Among the stars on Sunday's short slate, I wouldn't have expected Carter Verhaeghe to be the name to emerge as numberFire's highest-projected player for shots on goal (3.86), but he is.

It makes more sense as you dive. Verhaeghe has posted 17 shots in five games this month, averaging 3.4 per contest. He's also eclipsed 17:30 TOI in all three of the Florida Panthers' contests decided by fewer than three goals. If the game is tight, Verhaeghe is on the ice as a member of Florida's "second" even-strength line and top power-play unit alongside Matthew Tkachuk.

The Chicago Blackhawks are an excellent matchup for shots, allowing the fourth-most Corsi per 60 minutes (68.0) in the league.

Given nF's projection, the implied odds (44.4%) at +125 that he has an above-average game in this plus matchup are far too low.

Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers

Over 6.5 (-112)

This is one of the trickiest totals I can recall in the NHL this year. In both creases, you're either accepting or rejecting 2023-24's small sample.

If just looking at this year's numbers, Elvis Merzlikins and Jonathan Quick are arguably top-20 goaltenders. Quick has posted 5.81 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), and Merzlikins (3.22 GSAx) isn't far behind.

However, in a large sample dating back to the start of last year, Merzlikins (-26.74 GSAx) and Quick (-17.03 GSAx) are two of the worst goalies in the sport even factoring in their hot starts to this particular campaign.

That's why numberFire's model can help check our recency bias. It's projecting the over to cash 58.2% of the time in this game, and 10 of the 15 most similarly profiled games in the model's history exceeded seven total goals.

I'm expecting one of them to turn back into a pumpkin soon.

Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks

Frank Vatrano Anytime Goal (+155)

The Anaheim Ducks' leading shooter hasn't scored in November, and tonight presents a great matchup to turn that trend around.

Frank Vatrano has taken 42 shots in 13 games for Anaheim this season, posting a healthy 18:18 TOI average along the way. Vatrano is the point man on the Ducks' second-power play unit, as well. That's how he's scored three times with a man advantage already.

He scored nine times in October, and even though regression still is coming for his 21.4% shooting rate, I can't help but take +155 odds when he should have an easy time getting quality looks against the San Jose Sharks.

San Jose is dead last in the league in Corsi Against per 60 minutes (71.4), and it's not like Mackenzie Blackwood (-0.35 GSAx) has been a saving grace for their poor defense.

Vatrano is projected by numberFire for 3.49 shots and 0.36 goals tonight; if I get that type of shot volume, I'll take my chances he can sneak one past a largely incompetent Sharks D.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.