NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 1/21/24

Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, and today is no different with just six games. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes

Brent Burns to Record a Point (-102)

This matchup seems lopsided on paper, but numberFire's model is showing value on the underdog. Without a strong lean to a side, we can expect some offense from the Carolina Hurricanes today, so I'll take their top blue-liner to record a point.

The visiting Minnesota Wild have allowed the eighth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.27), but those efforts have gone to waste due to poor goaltending. In fact, in the past 30 days, Filip Gustavsson has the very worst goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in the NHL (-8.17).

With that in mind, it's odd Brent Burns is even money to find the scoresheet. Though not quite as heavy as his previous seasons, Burns' 21:53 TOI average atop the Canes' top even-strength and power-play units is still a hefty workload. He's responded with seven points in seven games this month.

Burns is projected by numberFire for 0.86 points in this contest, which would translate to -614 odds for one. It's one of the greatest disparities in the model today for a single prop.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings ML (-104)
Lucas Raymond to Record a Point (-111)

Especially at home, the Detroit Red Wings should be favored to win this game. The Tampa Bay Lightning's skating nor goaltending has been up to their previous standard in 2023-24.

Tampa's 50.3% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is just 17th best in the NHL, so Detroit (47.2 xGF%) isn't exactly outgunned in the same fashion they normally would be. In fact, the Wings' case heightens in goal dramatically. Andrei Vasilevskiy (0.94 GSAx) has just never quite been able to find his footing this season, and on the flip side, the Red Wings seem to have found a gem in Alex Lyon (5.76 GSAx).

numberFire's model is with me, favoring Detroit to win this game 60.3% of the time at home. If they do, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lucas Raymond involved on the action.

Raymond skates with Dylan Larkin on the top line at even strength and with a man advantage, so it's kind of surprising he's posted just six points in eight January tilts -- especially considering the modest 17:45 TOI average in them.

nF projects Raymond for 0.51 points in this one, which is teetering right on the brink of value. With only one point in four games to Larkin's six, expect him to find the scoresheet again soon.

New York Rangers at Anaheim Ducks

Ducks +1.5 (-134)

I faded the New York Rangers on Saturday, and this is another spot where their luck could continue to turn for the worse as the season progresses.

New York has greatly overachieved. They're 8th in the NHL in points (including a 5-2 mark in overtime games) with 58, but the Rags' expected-goals-for rate (51.7 xGF%) is just 13th-best in the NHL. Goaltending can certainly make up that gap, but Igor Shesterkin has struggled to -1.49 GSAx in the past 30 days. The results will follow this trend before long.

Of course, they still are significantly ahead of the 15-29-1 Anaheim Ducks on an average night; Anaheim's 44.0 xGF% is terrible. However, the Ducks always have a path to win behind budding star Lukas Dostal, who ranks 9th of 68 qualifying goaltenders in GSAx in the past 30 days (6.04).

On the back of Dostal, numberFire is projecting a cover 62.4% of the time in this one with both clubs on a back-to-back. I'll take the one-goal buffer, as well, when the Rags are almost certainly getting flooded with public money and the line hasn't budged.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken

Kraken ML (-102)
Eeli Tolvanen to Record a Point (-115)

This might be one of the most lopsided goaltending gaps of the entire NHL season. I can't believe I get the better one at home as an underdog.

Without exaggeration, Ilya Samsonov of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been the worst goalie in the sport when looking solely at GSAx (-13.69). Demoted from the lead role, he'll thrust into action on the back-to-back. It couldn't be much more different for the Seattle Kraken; Joey Daccord (13.88 GSAx) has been a top-10 goaltender whose rise has turned around their season.

I'd understand a look at Toronto if they had a massive skating edge, but they don't. Their 52.0 xGF% doesn't quite tower over Seattle's decent mark (49.2 xGF%). That's why numberFire projects Seattle to win 64.0% of the time at home tonight.

If they do, targeting offensive players for props can be tricky, but Eeli Tolvanen seems undervalued in this spot. Tolvanen captains the Krak's top power-play unit, and the role has allowed him to post eight points in eight January contests despite a low TOI average (15:46). That TOI could be rising dramatically moving forward due to a few key injuries, though.

nF's projections would give Tolvanen -669 odds for a point with a projection of 0.87. He's right there with Burns for one of the widest discrepancies of the day, and Tolvanen helping put a marker on the board correlates well with Seattle winning the game.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.