NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/25/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 16 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 6.5 (-104)
Sidney Crosby Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+106)

The goaltending in tonight's marquee game is excellent.

There's a roundabout possibility the Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins are this year's Eastern Conference Finals, and a key reason why is that these clubs -- once turbulent in goal -- have found their netminders.

Of 73 qualifying NHL goalies, Pittsburgh's Tristan Jarry is 10th in goals saved above expectation (7.51). Toronto's Joseph Woll (2.23 GSAx) is a respectable 29th. That's likely why these teams are trending to the under in these positions. 5 of Toronto's 7 road games have fallen under their projected total, and 6 of the Pens' 10 home games fit the same bill.

numberFire's model is expecting fewer than seven goals 56.1% of the time in this contest.

Goal-scoring props could be hard to come by with them in the fold, but Toronto is still allowing the 15th-most Corsi per 60 minutes (60.6), so the venerable Sidney Crosby's shot prop stood out to me.

Crosby has topped this mark in each of his last three games and is projected for 3.19 shots in this one by numberFire's projections. The near-even-money odds are certainly worth a dart.

Arizona Coyotes at Vegas Golden Knights

Coyotes +1.5 (-137)

I live for these favored pucklines when everyone else is leaning the other way.

All season, the Vegas Golden Knights have run from their peripherals to a 14-4-2 record, but it can't last forever. Vegas has the 13th-worst expected-goals-for rate (49.7 xGF%) in the NHL despite one of its best records, and they barely outpace the lowly Arizona Coyotes in that respect (49.3 xGF%).

Arizona can keep up in goal tonight, too. While Adin Hill (10.11 GSAx) has been dominant in the Vegas net, Connor Ingram (4.68 GSAx) has been no slouch himself.

Other than name value, there's no reason a puckline should be -XXX between two teams skating fairly similarly with top-15 goaltenders. numberFire's model agrees, pegging a 55.1% chance the Yotes cover a tally tonight on the road.

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche

Over 6.5 (-138)
Mikko Rantanen Anytime Goal (-110)

Both the Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche burned their primary goaltenders on Friday, and the result could be an offensive explosion in Denver between two teams that rank in the league's top 10 of expected goals per 60 minutes.

The Avs will get to fire pucks at Dan Vladar, who is ninth from the bottom at -4.75 GSAx this year. Of course, Colorado has equalled or topped three goals in six straight games and come with one of the league's best offensive floors as is.

However, Calgary certainly has the firepower to dent Ivan Prosvetov's ledger. Prosvetov has posted just 0.39 GSAx in four appearances this year, but the journeyman posted a GAA of 3.98 or higher in each of his first three seasons. I'm not expecting dominance from his side, either.

If goals are flowing at Ball Arena, Mikko Rantanen is certainly the game's favorite to contribute. He was held off the scoresheet in last night's affair, and another game without a tally would be Moose's first set of consecutive contests without a goal since October 29th.

The high-volume scorer is averaging 3.26 shots per game, and numberFire's projections peg him with a whopping 62.0% chance to find the back of the net tonight. That would correlate to -163 odds, but Rantanen can be had at -XXX to score on FanDuel.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.