NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/18/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 26 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning

Brayden Point Anytime Goal (+150)

This is one of the numberFire projections' favorite goal props today.

Brayden Point has one of the best roles for a center in the NHL, logging 21 points in 17 games across the Tampa Bay Lightning's top even-strength and power-play lines. He's pounded a healthy 20:19 TOI average this season, which would be a new career-high mark.

He's also having his highest volume season as a scorer, too. He's taken 49 shots in Tampa's 17 contests, and the 2.88 shots per game would also represent a career-high.

Though the visiting Edmonton Oilers allow the third-fewest Corsi Against per 60 minutes (53.1) in the NHL, we're not talking about shot volume with a goal. We're talking about slipping one past Stuart Skinner. At -2.97 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season, Skinner has allowed goals he shouldn't at the 13th-highest rate in the league.

nF gives Point a median goal projection of 0.49, which would translate to +105 odds for a score. This number is just a bit too long with a weak goalie in town.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes

Penguins ML (+146)

I can't believe the Pittsburgh Penguins are underdogs in this spot.

When looking at expected-goals-for rates (xGF%), the Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes are both excellent. Pittsburgh has posted a 54.4 xGF%, and they're just one spot in the league's pecking order behind Carolina (54.6%). The skating in this game is pretty even, and both teams have been off since at least Thursday, so there's no "tired legs" situation.

However, the goaltenders in this game aren't close -- a fact that might be masked by Tristan Jarry's stinker on Thursday against the prolific New Jersey Devils. Jarry's 4.63 GSAx overall still lap that of Carolina's Antti Raanta (-1.77 GSAx).

The Pens are 5-2 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the road this year, so don't be afraid of home ice in this spot. I'll even leap to sprinkle Penguins -1.5 (+330) when I've got them favored to win with such a key advantage.

New York Islanders at Calgary Flames

Under 5.5 (+110)

5.5-goal totals are nothing new for the New York Islanders.

We saw plenty of them last year as Ilya Sorokin has led the league in GSAx since the start of the 2022-23 season (51.36 GSAx). He and Semyon Varlamov (7.44 GSAx this season) have combined to form a tandem to buoy the Isles' defense. They've only allowed 3.15 goals per 60 minutes this season with an expected-goals-per-60-allowed mark of 3.52.

However, tonight, they'll meet their defensive match. The Calgary Flames allow the 16th-fewest expected goals per 60 (3.14) themselves, and Jacob Markstrom has been there to clean up the mess and then some. Markstrom's 10.18 GSAx are third in the NHL thus far.

Both of these offenses rank outside the league's top 10 of expected goals per 60; I think we can comfortably expect a low-scoring game tonight. numberFire's model expects fewer than five goals 53.6% of the time versus these 47.6% implied odds.

Arizona Coyotes at Winnipeg Jets

Mark Scheifele 3+ Shots on Goal (-106)

Though numberFire's model expects just 2.69 shots from Mark Scheifele this evening, I'm inclined to buy the Winnipeg Jets' top center.

He posted at least three shots on goal in three of the first five games this month but has struggled to one shot total in his last two games. This could be the matchup to bring some life out of him, though.

The Arizona Coyotes are allowing the seventh-most Corsi per 60 minutes (63.5) in the NHL this season, and they've allowed at least three shots to the most voluminous shooting center on the opposing team in three straight games. That's Scheifele at 2.13 shots per game this season behind a 20:40 TOI average.

With the Jets positioned as solid-but-not-prohibitive -150 favorites, Scheifele could also see key scoring opportunities late -- or into overtime. He's due for a high-volume day trying to score, and Mark Scheifele Anytime Goal (+145) seems a bit wide given the recent success for pivots against the 'Yotes.

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

Stars ML (-130)
Jason Robertson Anytime Goal (+180)

As much as I want to buy the Colorado Avalanche are back, they've got massive issues in the crease at present.

Alexandar Georgiev led the NHL in wins last year (40), but the wheels have fallen off Colorado's primary (and only legitimate) netminder. He's posted the ninth-worst GSAx in hockey (-4.17) to this point. The Avs' 57.1 xGF% rate is handily ahead of the Dallas Stars' mark this season (53.2%), but Georgiev gives it all back -- and then some.

On the other side, Dallas stalwart Jake Oettinger has brought back elite form, posting 6.54 GSAx (11th-best in the NHL) to this point. The gap in goal couldn't be much wider, which is why numberFire expects the Stars to win 62.7% of the time on home ice tonight.

Jason Robertson is the odds-on favorite to contribute to a Dallas dub. He's their leading shooter with 2.93 shots on goal per game, and he's been unluckier in 2023-24. Robertson had a 14.1% shooting percentage a year ago, and that's dropped to 11.4% this season. A struggling goaltender like Georgiev could rectify that issue.

Robertson is projected for 0.39 goals by numberFire, which should translate to +165 odds to score rather than these odds (+180).

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.