NFL Win Totals: What's Next for the Buccaneers?

Despite going 8-9 in 2022, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the reigning NFC South champions.

But Tampa Bay's most recent postseason stint was brief as they were eliminated on Wild Card weekend by the Dallas Cowboys in a 31-14 decision that wasn't all that close.

Tom Brady officially retired over the offseason, leaving Tampa with limited options at quarterback going forward. Still, the Bucs play in what is likely the NFL's worst division, giving them a chance to make some noise in the coming year?

The Buccaneers' win total for 2023 is set at a lowly 6.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook. Can they surpass it?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5

Over: +116
Under: -142

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +360
Odds to Win the NFC South: +700
Odds to Win the NFC: +4000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +7500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive coordinator -- Dave Canales in for Byron Leftwich.

Why Tampa Bay Could Win Over 6.5 Games:

• Wide Open Division
• Talented Offensive Playmakers
• Seven Wins Is a Low Bar

Out of the gate, one of the aspects most in Tampa Bay's favor is simply playing in the current NFC South.

Last season, the division did not feature a single team over .500. Tampa's 8-9 record was good enough to take the NFC South crown, and they were expeditiously ousted from the playoffs right away. It already feels like forever ago when the Bucs won Super Bowl LV with Brady. Overall, Pro Football Focus has the NFC ranked dead-last as the NFL's worst division.

Across the rest of the division in 2023, the Carolina Panthers have a rookie signal caller in first overall pick Bryce Young, the New Orleans Saints are hoping Derek Carr can be their game-changer and the Atlanta Falcons are one of the youngest teams in football.

At the very least, the Bucs should be able to earn a couple of divisional wins over fellow struggling sides. Despite the weak division, Tampa Bay is still the biggest long-shot in the NFC South, per the NFL division odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

There's still some top-shelf talent on the Bucs. All-Pro wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a dynamic tandem that should serve as a quality foundation for whoever ends up starting at quarterback. Additionally, star offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs is one of the best in the business after just three seasons in the NFL. PFF graded Wirfs as the second-best offensive lineman in 2022.

Ultimately, getting to only seven wins should not be the toughest task (nor should it be the goal of any NFL team). Outside of the NFC South, the Bucs also have less-than-threatening games against the Chicago Bears (Week 2), Houston Texans (Week 9), Tennessee Titans (Week 10) and Indianapolis Colts (Week 12) in 2023. Certainly, Tampa has the potential to win a few of those contests, especially if their quarterback play winds up being better than expected.

Why Tampa Bay Could Win Under 6.5 Games:

• No Definitive Answer at Quarterback
• Leftwich Is Gone, Too
• Toughest Schedule Among Division Foes

Tampa Bay's most likely starting quarterback for the upcoming campaign is Baker Mayfield.

The college walk-on turned Heisman Trophy winner has endured a tumultuous NFL career so far, but as a member of the Los Angeles Rams at the end of last year, Mayfield showed that he can still operate adequately in this league. There are worse signal-callers out there, but Mayfield has thrown the most interceptions of any quarterback (64) since 2018, which was his rookie campaign.

Mayfield is battling with Kyle Trask and John Wolford for the starting role. After a decorated career at the University of Florida, Trask has thrown just nine passes at the NFL level. Wolford started a total of four games with the Rams, displaying a dismal 1-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Regardless of who Tampa turns to at quarterback, it probably won't be a great situation.

I'd feel better about any of the aforementioned Tampa quarterbacks if Byron Leftwich was still the offensive coordinator -- despite how the 2022 season unfolded. As a former NFL starting signal-caller himself, Leftwich could have at least presented relatability for whoever leads the Bucs' offense. Still, Leftwich is out and former Pete Carroll protégé Dave Canales is in.

Canales spent time with Carroll at USC (2009) and with the Seattle Seahawks (2010 to 2022). Canales was elevated to quarterbacks coach for his final season in Seattle, which notably produced a career-best year from Geno Smith. Now under head coach Todd Bowles, can Canales have similar success in West Central Florida?

Tampa's recent Super Bowl victory was almost three seasons ago. Bruce Arians left the sidelines for the front office, and Brady is publicly enjoying retirement. In a way, it feels like the Bucs are still in the midst of a lengthy, grueling Super Bowl hangover.

They don't have a particularly brutal schedule in 2023, but it is by far the toughest slate among NFC South teams. According to 2023 win totals, the Bucs have the 13th-toughest schedule in the NFL. The schedules for the other three NFC South teams all rank among the six easiest.

That likely explains why there is -142 juice on Tampa Bay to win under 6.5 games.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.