NFL Win Totals: The Bills Should Remain Among the Elite

The Buffalo Bills were one of the NFL's best teams in 2022, posting a record of 13-3 and finishing with the second-best point differential (+169). But for the second straight campaign, their season ended in the Divisional Round.

Buffalo should once again be a very strong squad in 2023. The Bills' win total reflects that as it's set at 10.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

There have been recent grumblings of a rift between offensive stars Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, but it should not be anything serious enough to truly hamper Buffalo's play in 2023.

The Bills have significant talent all throughout their roster and are Super Bowl contenders, boasting the third-shortest title odds, per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 10.5

Over: -134
Under: +110

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -245
Odds to Win the AFC East: +130
Odds to Win the AFC: +450
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +900

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive coordinator -- currently vacant (Leslie Frazier stepped down after the 2022 season).

Why Buffalo Could Win Over 10.5 Games:

• Elite Offense
• A Defense Returning to Top Form
• Bills Mafia

For starters, Allen is one of the best signal-callers in the NFL right now. He finished 2022 in the top 10 in adjusted yards per attempt (7.7), QB Rating (99.6) and QBR (71.4), the latter of which was the league's second-best clip.

He is built with an imposing 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame and uses every bit of it. Allen is a dual-threat weapon, and he may possess the liveliest throwing arm in the league. In each of the last three seasons, Allen has thrown for more than 4,200 yards with at least 35 passing touchdowns.

When Allen does run, he lays it all on the line, earning a career mark of 5.7 yards per attempt. Since entering the league in 2018, Allen has 38 rushing scores -- that is the most among all quarterbacks during that span. He -- alone -- would be plenty for a defense to deal with, but then there is Buffalo's assorted cast of playmakers.

Diggs has been named an NFL All-Pro receiver in two of the past three seasons, which makes sense since he does not contain many weaknesses in his game. Gabriel Davis and Trent Sherfield are the other starting receivers, both of whom are quality players. James Cook and a veteran tailback committee will handle the ground game. Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid could wind up being the top tandem in the league.

Buffalo is really good on D, too. They allowed the fourth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.6), excelling versus the pass, and they did it despite weathering many injuries to starters.

Star safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde each missed time last year, but both are expected to begin the 2023 season healthy. Juggernaut pass rusher Von Miller tore his ACL last Thanksgiving. He is targeting Week 1 as his return date, and even if that doesn't happen, Miller should be back for the majority of the season.

Head coach Sean McDermott is set to take the defensive playcalling duties since Frazier stepped down from his coordinator role.

On top of the elite product the Bills have on the field, Buffalo also receives a subjective boost from their raucous fanbase: Bills Mafia.

Buffalo can be one of the fiercest environments in professional sports when you combine the home fans' dedication with the weather element. As such, the Bills hold a staggering home-field advantage when playing in Orchard Park. Over the last three years, Buffalo is 20-5 at home. Never underestimate Bills Mafia; they are the arch-rival of all folding tables and whoever is next on their NFL schedule.

Why Buffalo Could Win Under 10.5 Games:

• Strength of Schedule
• Ball Security
• Injuries

Of all factors against the Bills in 2023, their arduous schedule is certainly one that stands out. They have the fourth-toughest schedule going by 2023 win totals.

After winning the AFC East three years running, Buffalo will have increased competition within the division over the coming season. Notably, the New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers to a talented group of young players while Miami might be the NFL's fastest team.

Outside of divisional tilts, the Bills will also play the NFC East and AFC West in 2023. According to Pro Football Focus, those are two of the three best divisions in football. That translates to tough matchups against both of last year's Super Bowl participants in addition to three other games versus 2022 playoff teams, with clashes against the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers sticking out.

Additionally, Buffalo -- due to coming in first in the division last year -- has contests with the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars on the schedule.

Buffalo had ball security issues last season. More specifically, Allen led the entire NFL in turnovers with 19 (14 interceptions with 13 fumbles, 5 of which were lost). As a team, the Bills' 13 total fumbles lost in 2022 were second-most in the league.

It's tough to win at a high level if you're turning it over that much. If quarterbacks are the lifeblood of a team, then turnovers would be Count Dracula.

As with any team, the Bills need to stay healthy to hit their full potential. Last year, Buffalo watched their defense gradually deteriorate after injuries to Hyde, Poyer, Miller and Demar Hamlin. If Buffalo has bad injury luck once more, it could hinder their 2023 campaign.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.