NFL Win Totals: Is There Any Reason to Doubt the Chiefs?

The Kansas City Chiefs went 14-3 last year to earn the AFC West crown before ultimately winning Super Bowl LVII.

In the postseason, the Chiefs first defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round before appearing in their fifth straight AFC Championship game, where they eliminated the Cincinnati Bengals. From there, KC triumphed over the Philadelphia Eagles in what was one of the most exciting Super Bowls of all-time.

Reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes seems like he is only just reaching his prime, which is scary news for the rest of the NFL. In five seasons as the starter in Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid, Mahomes has already put together a resume worthy of enshrinement in Canton. With large contributions from All-Pro Travis Kelce and company, "Showtime" Mahomes has won two Lombardi Trophies and two AP MVP awards -- so far.

Everything points to KC being one of the league's best again in 2023. The Chiefs' win total is set at 11.5 (with -134 odds on the over), per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook. That 11.5 number is tied for the highest win total of any team.

Can the Chiefs eclipse that win total by winning at least a dozen games?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 11.5

Over: -134
Under: +110

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -500
Odds to Win the AFC West: -160
Odds to Win the AFC: +350
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +600

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive coordinator -- Matt Nagy in for Eric Bieniemy (who is now OC of the Washington Commanders).

Why Kansas City Could Win Over 11.5 Games:

• A Top Offense
• Established Culture of Success
• The Patrick Mahomes Effect

As a unit, the Chiefs were the only offense in the NFL to produce more than 7,000 total yards in 2022. Throwing the football last year, Mahomes set a personal-best mark in yardage (5,250) while pacing the entire league in touchdown passes (41). Only two other signal-callers had more than 30 passing scores. His ability to extend plays combined with his downfield accuracy is truly lethal stuff.

He checks out via advanced numbers, too, as he led the league in QBR (77.6) and was second in both QB Rating (105.5) and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.9).

Thankfully for Mahomes, the aforementioned Kelce is one of the toughest covers in the game. Over the past seven seasons, Kelce is a four-time NFL All-Pro. Astonishingly, he has had more than 90 receptions in every campaign since 2017. Dating back to 2020, Kelce has scored 33 regular-season touchdowns. He's truly one of the elite weapons in football.

The receiving corps in KK will need to adjust after losing JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Chiefs pulled all the right strings after Tyreek Hill departed a year prior, so it will be intriguing to see who emerges most in 2023. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will look to build off his first campaign in Kansas City. Speedsters Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore flashed some in 2022. Running backs Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco are quality pass-game options, as well.

The Chiefs have advanced to at least the AFC Championship in all five seasons with Mahomes as the starting signal-caller. Offensive guru and future Hall of Famer Andy Reid has done well to get the most out of Mahomes and other dynamic players, consistently putting individuals in places to be successful. Since Reid turned the team over to Mahomes, Kansas City has never won under 11.5 games in a regular season.

Mahomes has proven time and again that he will make that best available play any way that he can -- tossing the football overhand, sidearm, shovel-style, no-look or even underhand. There is no amount of value that can be put on the ability of Mahomes to thrive on a broken play. Considering Mahomes' slippery nature of extending time in (or out of) the pocket, his skill group can only be contained by opposing defenses for so long before breaking free.

It should shock no one that the Chiefs are the outright favorite to win it all (+600), per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why Kansas City Could Win Under 11.5 Games:

• Struggles Defending the Pass
• Highest Win Total
• Injuries

I understand that it may be tough to sell someone on taking under 11.5 Kansas City wins (+110) for the 2023-24 season, but here goes my best attempt.

For the past two years, the Chiefs have not showcased many weaknesses. With that said, any struggles they have had in the defensive backfield have been redeemed by Mahomes and the offense. Truthfully, the secondary unit in Kansas City is not particularly good.

In 2022, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (33), although they were fourth-best in net yards allowed per pass attempt (5.6). Additionally, the defense managed just 11 interceptions over the most recent regular season -- that tied for the 10th-fewest. They also lost safety Juan Thornhill in free agency, too.

All in all, it would be harsh to call the secondary a weak link, but it's a unit that could potentially be an issue.

We should also keep in mind that the Chiefs have the tallest task in the win total market. Tied with Philly and Cincy, 11.5 is the highest win total number at FanDuel Sportsbook. Of those three teams, only KC shows juice to over side (-134). Kansas City could be really good and still cash the under.

As with any NFL team, injuries are always looming. Getting hurt and missing games is simply a part of football. Should the Chiefs sustain any significant injuries to Mahomes, Kelce or All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, they could be in serious jeopardy of reaching 12 wins in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.