NFL Win Totals: Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Keep Their Streak of Winning Seasons Alive?

The Pittsburgh Steelers ended the 2022 season with a 9-8 record, finishing in third place in the AFC North.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 8.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

It was a transitional year for the Steelers, as they had a new starting quarterback for the first time since 2005.

Will the Steelers surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5

• Over: -150
• Under: +120

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +128
Odds to Win the AFC North: +470
Odds to Win the AFC: +2500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4500

Why Pittsburgh Could Win Over 8.5 Games:

• Kenny Pickett's Second Year
• Playmakers on Defense
• Developing Young Skill Players
  

The Steelers kept their streak of 19 consecutive years without a losing season alive, but it wasn't enough to see them sneak into the playoffs. All in all, this was actually a fairly solid season for them after Ben Roethlisberger had retired.

The season started with Mitchell Trubisky as the quarterback, and then, they moved over to rookieKenny Pickett in Week 4. Pickett was the only QB taken in the first round in 2022 and showed some talent --even if there were some definite question marks.

Pickett had a respectable 0.03 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back last season. He only was able to throw touchdowns at a 1.8% rate, which ranked 33rd in the league. That should regress to a better number naturally.

Perhaps an underrated part of Pickett's game is his rushing ability. He flashed it a bit in college and was able to run for 237 yards in his rookie season. He also scored three touchdowns on the ground.

Pickett played reasonably, but the reason this team had nine wins was the defense. They actually only ranked 14th overall on defense in numberFire's metrics, but they have some true difference-makers at multiple levels of the defense.

T.J. Watt has been one of the league's premier pass rushers for the past few seasons. He had double-digit sacks for four years, which includes setting the record for sacks with 22.5 in 2021.

2022 saw him only play 10 games and earn only 5.5 sacks, but he definitely had an impact that was not necessarily measured by stats. The Steelers went 8-2 in the games he played, and it nearly led to them sneaking into the playoffs again.

The other playmaker for the Pittsburgh defense was Minkah Fitzpatrick. His ability to impact games was on full display last season in Week 1; he had a pick-six and a blocked extra point in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Fitzpatrick has 17 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, and 4 touchdowns in just under four seasons with Pittsburgh. Turnovers can be random, but it seems like Minkah has a nose for the ball and can force them better than most safeties in the league.

The Steelers' offense wasn't the most inspiring group in the league last season, but in addition to Pickett, they have some good young players they've drafted in recent seasons. George Pickens flashed a lot of talent and ball skills at the wide receiver position. He definitely needs to work on his consistency, but receivers tend to take a big leap in development in their second season, and that would be the hope for Pickens.

Pat Freiermuth improved in nearly every category in his second season -- except for some bad touchdown luck which saw him score only twice. His yards per route run significantly improved from 1.45 to 1.72 in year two, and he's definitely an offensive weapon at the tight end position. The backfield has two young players in third-year back Najee Harris and sophomore Jaylen Warren. Harris was used as the featured back for his first two years, but there have been indications that Warren could be used more this season. This could make both of them more effective and improve Pittsburgh's run game.

Why Pittsburgh Might Not Win Over 8.5 Games:

• Pickett Doesn't Develop
• Offense Remains Middle-Of-The-Pack
• Tough Division
  

While Pickett had some promising signs, he didn't exactly set the world on fire. He threw nine interceptions compared, eclipsing his seven touchdowns. He had an adjusted yards per attempt of just 4.70, which was the third-worst in the NFL.

Pickett was also not an elite prospect despite going in the first round. He only really had one breakthrough season at the University of Pittsburgh, and it was as a fifth-year senior. He benefited from being in a weak QB draft class and a team that needed a replacement after the retirement of Ben.

The Steelers' passing offense was ranked 15th in efficiency by numberFire last season, and their offense ranked 17th overall. They ran the ball at an above-average rate last season in an attempt to hide Pickett's weaknesses a bit. For a more efficient offense, they will need to pass more, and Pickett will need to step up.

That 17th overall offense featured some disappointing players. Diontae Johnson was definitely one of them. He had a stunningly low 6.0 yards per target and a 58.5% catch rate. He also managed to score zero touchdowns despite playing all 17 games.

Najee Harris was also someone in the disappointing column. His Rushing NEP per carry was -0.05, but the Steelers still gave him the ball 272 times on the ground. It seems unlikely that he will get that workload this season, but if he does, it's a cause for concern for this offense.

The team will try to get a tune out of Allen Robinson, who has had two lost seasons in a row. It's pretty telling that the Los Angeles Rams wanted out from under his contract so badly that they were willing to accept just a seventh-round pick swap.

The Steelers will compete in the AFC North against two playoff teams from last season, and another team that should be better.

The Bengals have been the class of this division for two seasons and have a win total of 11.5. The Baltimore Ravens made the playoffs last season despite Lamar Jackson missing the last five games of the season. They have a win total of 10.5 with a lot of new weapons on offense.

The team expected to leapfrog the Steelers is the Cleveland Browns. Deshaun Watson didn't get much playing time and was fairly rusty when he did. They've had a nice offseason for themselves, and the defense has a lot of talent despite not playing well at all last season under a different coordinator.

There are no easy wins in this division -- as we see in others. This is especially true if Lamar Jackson stays healthy and Deshaun Watson is anything like his old self. Overall, Pittsburgh's schedule actually ranks as a fairly soft one, but some of those division matchups down the stretch could make a difference.

If the Steelers fail to win at least nine games, it will be the first losing season for the franchise since 2003. There's at least some reason for concern that this season could break that 19-year streak.

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