NFL Win Totals: Can the Commanders Make a Run?

As the conventional mind would imagine to be impossible, the Washington Commanders managed to go .500 over a 17-game season (8-8-1) in 2022. Despite narrowly missing the playoffs, Washington finished dead last in the NFC East.

The Commanders' win total for 2023 is set at 6.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Looking to turn a new leaf, former second-overall pick Chase Young is back to begin the year with Washington. After suffering a torn ACL in 2021, Young did not return to action until Week 16 last year. Can the 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year return to form?

On offense, the franchise seems ready this season to hand the car keys to Sam Howell. The second-year signal caller showed flashes of proficient play in the final game of 2022, which was a victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Washington Commanders 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5

Over: -104
Under: -118

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +285
Odds to Win the NFC East: +1000
Odds to Win the NFC: +3000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +6000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Eric Bieniemy in for Scott Turner

Why Washington Could Win Over 6.5 Games:

• Solid Defense
• Improved Offensive Identity
• Seven Wins Is a Low Bar

First and foremost, Young going through a healthy offseason program is a major positive for Washington. He did not overwhelm in any of his three appearances last year, but the fact that he recovered well enough to get in some games is good news. The 6-foot-5, 270-pound Young will need to be the anchor for the Commanders to have any real success in 2023.

Alongside Young will be explosive players like Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat. Cody Barton -- who comes over from the Seattle Seahawks -- will likely start at middle linebacker. Overall, it is not a bad defensive front. Additionally, Washington allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL last year.

Bieniemy coming over from Kansas City should help the Commanders tremendously. With both head coach Ron Rivera and DC Jack Del Rio being former NFL stars on the defensive side, it helps to get an individual in there with an offensive state of mind. The second year Howell will be first up at quarterback in Bieniemy's new offense. If Howell struggles terribly, veteran Jacoby Brissett is a quality insurance option on the roster.

Washtingon's receiving corps has several playmakers. "Scary" Terry McLaurin has produced over 900 yards in all four of his seasons at the professional level and excels at making big catches downfield. In 2022, McLaurin was sixth in the NFL for most receptions of 40 yards or more. Curtis Samuel can be used as a rushing or receiving option; he logged 10.3 yards per catch with 4.9 yards per carry last season. Jahan Dotson rounds out the unit, who caught seven touchdowns as a rookie.

The Commanders win total market will get its share of action simply because 6.5 games is one of the lowest numbers on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook. Other teams like the Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders reflect the same win total as Washington while the Arizona Cardinals (4.5) are the only squad with a lower mark for the upcoming season. Keep in mind, those Kyler Murray-less Cards will play at the Commanders in the opening week of 2023. Can that be Washington's head start to seven wins?

Why Washington Could Win Under 6.5 Games:

• Tough Schedule
• Least Experienced Quarterback in the Division
• Off-Field Distractions

Washington plays in the NFC East, which went from being a weaker division to a stronger one in what felt like overnight. Grouped with the Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants, Pro Football Focus has the NFC East ranked as the best division in the conference for 2023 (and third in the NFL). All teams here made the playoffs last season with the exception of the Commanders. According to the NFL divisional odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Washington (+1000) is the longshot to win it.

Outside of six divisional games, the NFC West and AFC East will also be on tap for Washington in the 2023-24 NFL season. Between sides like the Buffalo Bills (Week 3), San Francisco 49ers (Week 17), Miami Dolphins (Week 13), New York Jets (Week 16) and Seattle Seahawks (Week 10), seven wins may be arduous to find.

Of all the quarterbacks in the division, Howell is comfortably the least experienced at the NFL level. Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones all have at least three seasons in the league while Howell made just one start in his rookie campaign last year.

The Commanders have a safety net behind Howell with Brissett, but being overmatched at the most important position in professional sports has its disadvantages. Washington will need to force as many turnovers as possible from opponents while capitalizing on getting playmakers in space. Simply, all other phases of the game will need to make up for any quarterbacking lapses -- mental or physical.

Washington also regularly has their share of off-field issues. Whether it was a distracting investigation into the outgoing owner or running back Brian Robinson getting shot in the lower body, the Commanders were in the news for the wrong reasons in 2022. Now that Daniel Snyder has officially sold the franchise, the organization will look to turn the tide. Still, would it be surprising if some elements of toxicity translate over?

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.