NFL Win Totals: Can the 49ers Overcome Uncertainty at Quarterback?

The San Francisco 49ers ended the 2022 season with a 13-4 record, winning the NFC West and earning the 2 seed in the NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 10.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

In spite of some uncertainty under center, San Francisco is looking to take the next step and win their first Super Bowl since 1994.

Will the 49ers surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

San Francisco 49ers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 10.5

• Over: -142
• Under: +116

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -430
Odds to Win the NFC West: -165
Odds to Win the NFC: +400
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +1000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive Coordinator: Steve Wilks in for DeMeco Ryans

Why San Francisco Could Win Over 10.5 Games

• An Elite Defense
• Kyle Shanahan
• Elite Weapons on Offense
• A Favorable Schedule

The main focus of conversions about the 49ers leading up to the start of the 2023 season will undoubtedly center on who will be starting at the quarterback position. While that is obviously important, the main reason the 49ers can win at least 11 games this season is because of their defense.

The 49ers' defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL last season (277). They earned Pro Football Focus' third-highest defense grade (84.8), finishing inside the top seven in each major category, including earning the top grade in tackling (90.0) and coverage (91.5). This offseason, they lost defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to the Houston Texans and several starters in free agency but hired Steve Wilks to replace him and added defensive lineman Javon Hargrave on a four-year, $84 million contract.

Ryans is a huge loss, but the 49ers have shown the ability to survive the departure of defensive coordinators before, most notably in 2021 -- when Robert Saleh left to become the head coach of the New York Jets. Wilks joins San Francisco after guiding a 1-4 Carolina Panthers team to a final record of 7-10 after Matt Rhule was fired entering Week 6.

The addition of Hargrave is a massive one. He earned PFF's third-highest pass-rushing grade for a defensive lineman last season (91.1). He will form a formidable duo with Nick Bosa, who earned the fourth-highest pass-rushing grade among defensive ends (90.6). The 49ers' team pass-rushing grade (76.4) was their lowest mark among PFF's major defensive categories, and it should be significantly improved in 2023. Even with some changes, all the pieces are there for the 49ers' defense to remain elite next season.

Next up is Kyle Shanahan. Since taking the head coaching job in 2017, Shanahan is a combined 52-46 in the regular season, with a 9-6 postseason record, three NFC Championship appearances, and one Super Bowl appearance. He has accomplished that with Jimmy Garoppolo (four times) or Nick Mullens (twice) as the team's leading passer. Despite numerous injuries and unstable play under center, Shanahan has managed to guide the 49ers to consistent success.

Shanahan's ability to survive setbacks will be tested again this season, with the 49ers entering 2023 with uncertainty under center. As one of the top offensive minds in the game, Shanahan provides the 49ers with an incredible edge and is a key part of their path to 11 wins this season.

A huge reason why Shanahan has found success with limited signal-callers is the talent of the 49ers' skill-position players. In George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. All four players excel at generating yards after the catch. Deebo (1st), Kittle (5th), and CMC (2nd) all ranked inside the top five in yards after the catch for their positions last season, and Aiyuk finished 17th.

The 49ers' offense is perfectly constructed to survive their limitations at signal-caller. With Shanahan at the helm, the 49ers' elite weapons give San Francisco a good chance to reach 11 wins, regardless of which of their three quarterbacks is under center.

Finally, the 49ers will benefit from a favorable schedule this year. They have the fourth-easiest schedule this season via 2023 win totals. They will benefit from a weak NFC West that contains two teams inside the bottom-10 in the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams) and no teams inside the top-12 (outside of the 49ers). They also benefit from playing in the NFC, which is projected to be far weaker than the AFC. Despite playing a first-place schedule, San Fran faces just five opponents all season that are currently ranked inside the top 10 in Super Bowl odds.

Even with a difficult schedule, this 49ers team could win 11-plus games. With one of the most favorable schedules in the league, they are well-positioned to have a successful 2023 season.

Why San Francisco Could Win Under 10.5 Games

• Uncertainty Under Center
• Offseason Departures
• Their Opponents Take the Next Step

The 49ers are set up to survive limited play at the quarterback position, but it certainly isn't an ideal issue to have to deal with.

The fact that the 49ers have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl despite a quarterback room of Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold is a testament to just how strong the rest of their organization is. Every other team inside the top 13 in Super Bowl odds has a quarterback with MVP odds inside the top 12. Purdy's MVP Odds (+4000) rank 19th. The 49ers are an outlier -- they are simply not constructed like every other team expected to contend this season.

Purdy is the current favorite to be under center for the 49ers in Week 1, but that is far from guaranteed. The 49ers are looking at a quarterback competition where the winner will have serious question marks, regardless of who it is.

Purdy was impressive last season, earning PFF's 14th-best offensive grade, but that was a small sample size, and he is coming off a major injury. Lance, the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, has played only 262 total snaps and is also coming off a major injury. Darnold, the third overall pick in 2018, has a wealth of experience but has struggled on each of his previous two teams and ranked 45th among signal-callers in PFF's offensive grades last season.

If the 49ers fail to reach 11 wins this season, the reason why will likely start with the quarterback position. They have a history of handling these situations well, but at some point, the game becomes difficult when you lack elite talent at the most important position. Their primary point of failure is an obvious one, and it's one most teams struggle to overcome.

In addition to their potential problems at quarterback, the 49ers will also have to deal with several key losses this offseason. In addition to DeMeco Ryans, they also lost offensive lineman Mike McGlinchey, defensive lineman Charles Omenihu, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, safety Jimmie Ward, and linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Samson Ebukam. The addition of Javon Hargrave will help, but the 49ers' defense will be without several players who played significant snaps for them last season.

The combination of new faces on defense and a new defensive coordinator creates the possibility for San Francisco's defense to decline this season. There is still plenty of talent, and they could match their production from last season, but the lack of continuity creates some level of uncertainty. If the defense does regress, the 49ers' potential issues at quarterback could be placed under even more pressure.

Finally, while the 49ers have an easy schedule on paper, they face several teams that could take large steps forward this season if their quarterbacks continue to improve. Within their division, the outlook for the Rams and Cardinals remains bleak, but the Seahawks surprised last season and could provide a challenge if Geno Smith not only avoids regression but continues to ascend.

Outside of their division, the 49ers will face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are hoping for Kenny Pickett to make a Year-2 jump and the New York Giants, who are banking on Daniel Jones continuing to grow coming off his breakout season.

The Cleveland Browns could be a much better side if Deshaun Watson recaptures the elite form he displayed early in his career. The Minnesota Vikings were elite on offense last season and made several changes to fix their defense this offseason. Finally, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a breakthrough season last year and could be a formidable opponent if they continue trending in the same direction and Trevor Lawrence lives up to the potential that made him one of the most promising prospects since Andrew Luck.

That is a lot of ifs, but the point is that there is always a certain level of unknown when forecasting schedule difficulty during the preseason. Teams will underperform, and teams will overperform. Given the projected starting point, the 49ers' slate of opponents has far more room to improve than regress. If the Niners' foes do improve, reaching 11 wins will become a more difficult task.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.